Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Comfort Systems USA Inc stock $1,061, price $965, upside +10.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $67.75 – $2,065 · fair‑value band $680.87 – $1,448 · the $964.94 price screens below the $1,061 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States.
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The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection.
The company is also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of systems in existing buildings.
In addition, it provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems.
The company serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) currently trades at $964.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,061, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $602.24 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $964.94 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $218.90, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $680.87 (bear) to $1,448 (bull), the price of $964.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Comfort Systems USA Inc reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +31.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2025, compounding +63.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $32.5B Large · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 2.59 · EPS (TTM) $46.30 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 58.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 10%, FIX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$680.87Fair Value $1,061Bull$1,448
Price $964.94 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($36.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $77.6M and none bought.
SaleBrian E. LaneCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF., Director4× since Nov 24, 2025: 43,660 shares, avg. $1,559$68.1MAug 26, 2026
SaleWilliam George IIICHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER4× since Dec 1, 2025: 20,924 shares, avg. $1,513$31.7MAug 17, 2026
SaleFranklin MyersDirector4× since Feb 25, 2026: 27,336 shares, avg. $1,722$47.1MAug 11, 2026
SaleRhoman J HardyDirector342 shares at $1,900$649,827May 27, 2026
SaleJulie ShaeffCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER2× since Mar 3, 2026: 3,410 shares, avg. $1,586$5.4MMay 11, 2026
SalePablo G. MercadoDirector2× since Feb 23, 2026: 1,000 shares, avg. $1,592$1.6MApr 30, 2026
SaleWilliam J SandbrookDirector2× since Feb 24, 2026: 4,000 shares, avg. $1,552$6.2MApr 29, 2026
SaleDarcy AndersonDirector4,500 shares at $1,370$6.2MMar 3, 2026
SaleTerrence ReedSVP & CHRO1,787 shares at $1,420$2.5MMar 3, 2026
SaleConstance Ellen SkidmoreDirector1,000 shares at $1,425$1.4MFeb 24, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+51.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.49.0% vs 36.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 14%
2025 sits 221% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.4% a year for the price and +22.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High ROE and cash conversion support a moderate moat in engineering and construction, yet thin evidence on intangibles and innovation plus cyclical exposure remain key limitations.
Main risk: Reliance on a concentrated group of technology and data center customers could lead to reduced project volumes or cancellations if hyperscaler spending slows, hitting revenue and backlog conversion.
Bull case: By diversifying into healthcare and other sectors while leveraging modular capabilities for recurring service work, the company could stabilize revenue even if tech demand fluctuates.
Bear case: If major technology customers delay or cancel projects due to shifting priorities, the expanded modular capacity could become underutilized, pressuring margins and returns.
Comfort Systems has shifted sharply toward technology customers, which now account for 59 percent of revenue after nine months, up from 42 percent a year earlier, fueling record backlog growth. That concentration brings strong near-term visibility but also direct exposure to any new restrictions on data-center builds following recent elections and state ballot measures. Does the company stand to gain more from continued AI infrastructure demand than it risks losing to policy or permitting hurdles?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 787 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)58.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)53.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Comfort Systems USA Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIX
Frequently asked questions
Is Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,061 versus a price of $964.94, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FIX?
Our model-based fair value for Comfort Systems USA Inc is $1,061 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $964.94.
What is the quality score of FIX?
Comfort Systems USA Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,061 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $680.87, optimistic scenario $1,448. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Comfort Systems USA Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,061, about +10% upside versus a price of $964.94 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $680.87, optimistic scenario $1,448. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Comfort Systems USA Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Comfort Systems USA Inc pay a dividend?
Comfort Systems USA Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Comfort Systems USA Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FIX use?
Our models discount Comfort Systems USA Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Comfort Systems USA Inc that is +21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Comfort Systems USA Inc grew +26.1 % a year. The price currently implies +21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Comfort Systems USA Inc (+21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.03 %: that much free cash flow Comfort Systems USA Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Comfort Systems USA Inc it is $1,061 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $964.94. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Comfort Systems USA Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FIX trades below its calculated fair value: price $964.94, fair value $1,061, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($964.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,061). For Comfort Systems USA Inc the two are $96.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Comfort Systems USA Inc worth?
The market values Comfort Systems USA Inc at about $32.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $964.94; our models calculate a fair value of $1,061 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIX?
Our models span a range for Comfort Systems USA Inc: cautious scenario $680.87, base $1,061, optimistic $1,448 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $964.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FIX?
Comfort Systems USA Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1,061 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 22.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 13.3, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 13.9.
What is the PEG ratio of FIX?
The PEG ratio of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 0.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Comfort Systems USA Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 58.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIX from its 52-week high?
Comfort Systems USA Inc trades at $964.94, about 53% below its 52-week high of $2,065 and 10% above the low of $874.94 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,061 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Comfort Systems USA Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Ferrovial N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Comfort Systems USA Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $964.94, calculated fair value $1,061 (+10%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIX calculated?
We run Comfort Systems USA Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,061, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Comfort Systems USA Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $964.94. Our model-based fair value is $1,061, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Comfort Systems USA Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($680.87 to $1,448) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) come from?
Earnings per share at Comfort Systems USA Inc grew +34.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.3 %, EBIT margin +9.7 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Comfort Systems USA Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The market capitalisation of Comfort Systems USA Inc is $32.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 2.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Earnings per share at Comfort Systems USA Inc are $46.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The dividend yield of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 0.3% (payout 6.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The net margin of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 58.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
The operating margin of Comfort Systems USA Inc is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Revenue at Comfort Systems USA Inc is growing +53.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)?
Earnings per share at Comfort Systems USA Inc are growing +68.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) hold?
Comfort Systems USA Inc holds more cash than debt, $196M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026