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Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Genius Sports Ltd stock $4.80, price $5.97, that is 19.6% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Communication Services US · Based in United Kingdom · ISIN GG00BMF1JR16

GS Genius Sports Ltd logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Genius Sports Ltd

GENI · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 20% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +65% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +34.9 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $5.6M (6M)
Fair value $4.80 · Overvalued (−19.6%)
Quality 37/100
Loss-making · -23.0% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 20/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.38 $2.25 Fair Value $4.80 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.25 – $22.38 · fair‑value band $3.47 – $6.88 · the $5.97 price screens above the $4.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally.

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It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live optical tracking, event data, and video for league's operations; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services.

The company also develops additional tools that help sports leagues deepen fan engagement; and digital content and gamification solutions, as well as provides consumer insights and fan intelligence services.

In addition, it provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; and live streaming services.

Further, the company offers BetVision, an interactive single-screen live streaming solution that provides integrated bet slip, real-time team and player statistics, personalized, and augmented viewing modes; and FanHub, an advertising solution that helps in creation, delivery, and optimization of digital marketing campaigns, including data-driven personalized ad creative and programmatic media buying.

The company was formerly known as Genius Sports Group Limited and changed its name to Genius Sports Limited in April 2021. Genius Sports Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) currently trades at $5.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.80, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.25 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $5.97 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5400, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.47 (bear) to $6.88 (bull), the price of $5.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Genius Sports Ltd reported revenue of $669M in FY2025 versus $263M in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$112M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B Small · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6100 · Net margin −23.0% · Return on equity −25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −12.4% · Revenue (TTM) $790M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −20%, GENI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.47 Fair Value $4.80 Bull $6.88
Price $5.97 · Downside -19.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $3.63 $4.58 $7.30 80
Growth DCF $3.47 $4.80 $6.88 79
5Y Revenue Exit $3.47 $5.11 $8.52 71
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $3.63 $4.58 $7.30 80
5Y Revenue Exit $3.47 $5.11 $8.52 71
10Y Revenue Exit $3.45 $5.88 $7.32 67
Multiples
EV/Revenue $3.13 $4.07 $5.01 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3500 $0.5400 $0.6700 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $3.47 $4.80 $6.88 79
Rev-Margin DCF $3.65 $5.69 $9.82 70

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 13
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 55
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 72
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 62
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 35
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 14
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 3
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.6M and none bought.

  • SaleThomas RussellChief Legal Officer50,000 shares at $6.51$325,500Sep 17, 2026
  • SaleMark LockeChief Executive Officer, Director800,000 shares at $6.57$5.3MSep 17, 2026

Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.0% (2020) → −21.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.3% a year for the price and +25.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+51.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+28.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+24.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+21.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+18.3%

GENI screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with Alphabet Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 123 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −19.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −9.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −23.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −12.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 64.7% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.30× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.11× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 25.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 33
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Kuaishou Technology 1024 HK$28.92 HK$86.76 +200% vs GENI
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 HK$37.28 HK$74.14 +99% vs GENI
Tencent Holdings 0700 HK$419.80 HK$711.67 +70% vs GENI
NAVER Corporation 035420 190,200 KRW 314,922 KRW +66% vs GENI
REA Group REA A$174.81 A$198.01 +13% vs GENI
Alphabet Inc GOOG $283.93 $312.32 +10% vs GENI
Meta Platforms, Inc META $610.15 $671.17 +10% vs GENI
Reddit, Inc RDDT $95.10 $103.19 +9% vs GENI
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT $603.01 $616.88 +2% vs GENI
Baidu, Inc BIDU $81.87 $54.07 −34% vs GENI

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Genius Sports Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Genius Sports Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GENI

Frequently asked questions

Is Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.80 versus a price of $5.97, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GENI?
Our model-based fair value for Genius Sports Ltd is $4.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.97.
What is the quality score of GENI?
Genius Sports Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.47, optimistic scenario $6.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genius Sports Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.80, about 20% lower versus a price of $5.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.47, optimistic scenario $6.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Genius Sports Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $790M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genius Sports Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GENI use?
Our models discount Genius Sports Ltd at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genius Sports Ltd that is +20.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genius Sports Ltd grew +34.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genius Sports Ltd (+20.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.88 %: that much free cash flow Genius Sports Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genius Sports Ltd it is $4.80 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $5.97. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Genius Sports Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GENI trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.97, fair value $4.80, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GENI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.80). For Genius Sports Ltd the two are $1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genius Sports Ltd worth?
The market values Genius Sports Ltd at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $5.97; our models calculate a fair value of $4.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GENI?
Our models span a range for Genius Sports Ltd: cautious scenario $3.47, base $4.80, optimistic $6.88 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $5.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genius Sports Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −25.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GENI from its 52-week high?
Genius Sports Ltd trades at $5.97, about 47% below its 52-week high of $11.37 and 52% above the low of $3.92 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genius Sports Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genius Sports Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $5.97, calculated fair value $4.80 (−20%), Quality Score 37/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GENI calculated?
We run Genius Sports Ltd through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.80 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Genius Sports Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.97. Our model-based fair value is $4.80, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genius Sports Ltd right now?
Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($3.47 to $6.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Genius Sports Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The market capitalisation of Genius Sports Ltd is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genius Sports Ltd is 2.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Earnings per share at Genius Sports Ltd are $−0.6100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The net margin of Genius Sports Ltd is −23.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genius Sports Ltd is −25.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genius Sports Ltd is −23.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The operating margin of Genius Sports Ltd is −12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Revenue at Genius Sports Ltd is growing +64.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) hold?
Genius Sports Ltd holds more cash than debt, $250M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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