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Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Genius Sports Ltd $4.07, price $6.12, upside -33.5%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · US · ISIN GG00BMF1JR16

GS Genius Sports Ltd logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Genius Sports Ltd

GENI · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $4.07 · Overvalued (−33%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +34.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -22.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.38 $2.25 Fair Value $4.07 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.25 – $22.38 · fair‑value band $2.95 – $5.83 · the $6.12 price screens above the $4.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally.

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Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live optical tracking, event data, and video for league's operations; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also develops additional tools that help sports leagues deepen fan engagement; and digital content and gamification solutions, as well as provides consumer insights and fan intelligence services. In addition, it provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; and live streaming services. Further, the company offers BetVision, an interactive single-screen live streaming solution that provides integrated bet slip, real-time team and player statistics, personalized, and augmented viewing modes; and FanHub, an advertising solution that helps in creation, delivery, and optimization of digital marketing campaigns, including data-driven personalized ad creative and programmatic media buying. The company was formerly known as Genius Sports Group Limited and changed its name to Genius Sports Limited in April 2021. Genius Sports Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) currently trades at $6.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.07, implying the stock looks roughly 50.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.22 per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the $6.12 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.82, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.95 (bear) to $5.83 (bull), the price of $6.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Genius Sports Ltd reported revenue of $669M in FY2025 versus $263M in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$112M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6200 · Net margin −16.7% · Return on equity −22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.5% · Operating margin −15.8% · Revenue (TTM) $713M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −33%, GENI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.95 Fair Value $4.07 Bull $5.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.34 $5.85 $10.36 78
Growth DCF $4.13 $6.37 $9.90 77
5Y Revenue Exit $3.73 $5.57 $9.42 71
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.34 $5.85 $10.36 78
5Y Revenue Exit $3.73 $5.57 $9.42 71
10Y Revenue Exit $3.87 $6.90 $8.73 67
Multiples
EV/Revenue $3.25 $4.19 $5.13 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.35 $1.82 $2.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.13 $6.37 $9.90 77
Rev-Margin DCF $3.93 $6.22 $10.87 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.0% (2020) → −21.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.8% a year for the price and +25.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+49.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+28.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+25.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+22.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+18.7%

GENI screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 149 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −10% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −22% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −16% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 31% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.15× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.19× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 24.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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NAVER Corporation 035420 194,700 KRW 315,395 KRW +62%
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REA Group REA A$152.30 A$167.53 +10%

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Genius Sports Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Genius Sports Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GENI

Frequently asked questions

Is Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.07 versus a price of $6.12, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GENI?
Our model-based fair value for Genius Sports Ltd is $4.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.12.
What is the quality score of GENI?
Genius Sports Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.95, optimistic scenario $5.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genius Sports Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.07, about −33% upside versus a price of $6.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.95, optimistic scenario $5.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Genius Sports Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $713M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genius Sports Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +18.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GENI use?
Our models discount Genius Sports Ltd at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genius Sports Ltd that is +18.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genius Sports Ltd grew +34.9 % a year. The price currently implies +18.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genius Sports Ltd (+18.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.14 %: that much free cash flow Genius Sports Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genius Sports Ltd it is $4.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.12. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Genius Sports Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GENI trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.12, fair value $4.07, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GENI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.07). For Genius Sports Ltd the two are $2.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genius Sports Ltd worth?
The market values Genius Sports Ltd at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.12; our models calculate a fair value of $4.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GENI?
Our models span a range for Genius Sports Ltd: cautious scenario $2.95, base $4.07, optimistic $5.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genius Sports Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −22.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GENI from its 52-week high?
Genius Sports Ltd trades at $6.12, about 54% below its 52-week high of $13.43 and 56% above the low of $3.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genius Sports Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genius Sports Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.12, calculated fair value $4.07 (−33%), Quality Score 36/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GENI calculated?
We run Genius Sports Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Genius Sports Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $6.12. Our model-based fair value is $4.07, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genius Sports Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.95 to $5.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Genius Sports Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The market capitalisation of Genius Sports Ltd is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genius Sports Ltd is 2.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Earnings per share at Genius Sports Ltd are $−0.6200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The net margin of Genius Sports Ltd is −16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genius Sports Ltd is −22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genius Sports Ltd is −23.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
The operating margin of Genius Sports Ltd is −15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genius Sports Ltd (GENI)?
Revenue at Genius Sports Ltd is growing +30.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) hold?
Genius Sports Ltd holds more cash than debt, $250M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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