Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $1.6B
Genius Sports Limited
GENI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +19.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.25 – $24.93 · fair‑value band $2.66 – $4.27 · the $7.59 price screens above the $3.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Genius Sports Limited (GENI) currently trades at $7.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.46, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Genius Sports Limited generated revenue of $713M at a net margin of -22.3%. Revenue grew 30.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -22.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $250M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.66 (bear case) to $4.27 (bull case); at $7.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -54%, GENI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($6.22) versus Asset-Based ($1.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Genius Sports Limited provides technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries in the Americas, Europe, and internationally. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live optical tracking, event data, and video for league's operations; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also develops additional tools that help sports leagues deepen fan engagement; and digital content and gamification solutions, as well as provides consumer insights and fan intelligence services. In addition, it provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; and live streaming services. Further, the company offers BetVision, an interactive single-screen live streaming solution that provides integrated bet slip, real-time team and player statistics, personalized, and augmented viewing modes; and FanHub, an advertising solution that helps in creation, delivery, and optimization of digital marketing campaigns, including data-driven personalized ad creative and programmatic media buying. The company was formerly known as Genius Sports Group Limited and changed its name to Genius Sports Limited in April 2021. Genius Sports Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Genius Sports Limited reported revenue of $669M in FY2025 versus $263M in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$112M in FY2025.
GENI screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Strength Seen in Genius Sports Limited (GENI): Can Its 12.2% Jump Turn into More Strength?
- Genius Sports to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Results on August 6
- Genius Sports (GENI) Jumps 12% on ‘Buy’ Call, Price Target Hike
- Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Moves 14.0% Higher: Will This Strength Last?
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $485.38 | $209.56 | -57% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $113.30 | $451.51 | +299% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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