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Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heavy Minerals Ltd stock A$0.14, price A$0.31, that is 56.4% below the price, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000168668

HM Heavy Minerals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Heavy Minerals Ltd

HVY · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 56% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +279.6 %/yr in AUD)
Revenue last quarter 16% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.1352 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 25/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/6)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.6600 A$0.0500 Fair Value A$0.1352 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$0.6600 · fair‑value band A$0.1014 – A$0.1690 · the A$0.3100 price screens above the A$0.1352 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Heavy Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of industrial mineral resource projects in Australia, Mauritius, and Mozambique. It explores for industrial garnet, ilmenite, zircon, leucoxene, rutile, and other mineral deposits.

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The company's primary project is 100% owned the Port Gregory Garnet project that covers an area of 227.28 square kilometers located near the North of Geraldton, Western Australia. It also holds interests in Red Hill Prospect, located in Geraldton.

Heavy Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Belmont, Australia.

Stock analysis

Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY) currently trades at A$0.3100, while our estimate is A$0.1352, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.1014 (bear) to A$0.1690 (bull), the price of A$0.3100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Heavy Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$44.1K in FY2024 versus A$0 in FY2020. Reported net income was −A$2.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$22.3M (≈ $15.3M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Return on equity −170% · Return on assets (EBIT) −32.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −10,192% · Revenue (TTM) A$37.1K · Revenue growth (YoY) −16.3% · Free cash flow −A$667K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −56%, HVY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.1014 Fair Value A$0.1352 Bull A$0.1690
Price A$0.3100 · Downside -56.4%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 25
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 30
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 75
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 49
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 8
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 8
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 17
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+279.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−621,392.9% (2019) → −2,827.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HVY screens overvalued: fair value 56% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

Compare Heavy Minerals Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −56.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −53.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −16.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 21.08× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs HVY
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 57.00 SAR 64.24 SAR +13% vs HVY
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.25 ¥30.98 +10% vs HVY
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs HVY
Boliden AB BOL kr 515.20 kr 464.45 −10% vs HVY
BHP Group BHP A$60.39 A$47.47 −21% vs HVY
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.69 ¥25.57 −22% vs HVY
Korea Zinc Company 010130 967,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −33% vs HVY
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.71 ¥6.82 −50% vs HVY
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥40.90 ¥4.44 −89% vs HVY

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Heavy Minerals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heavy Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HVY

Frequently asked questions

Is Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.1352 versus a price of A$0.3100, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HVY?
Our estimate for Heavy Minerals Ltd is A$0.1352 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3100.
What is the quality score of HVY?
Heavy Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.1352 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.1014, optimistic scenario A$0.1690. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Heavy Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.1352, about 56% lower versus a price of A$0.3100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1014, optimistic scenario A$0.1690. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
Heavy Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$37.1K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heavy Minerals Ltd it is A$0.1352 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.3100.
Is Heavy Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, HVY trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3100, fair value A$0.1352, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HVY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1352). For Heavy Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.1748 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heavy Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Heavy Minerals Ltd at about A$22.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3100; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1352 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HVY?
Our models span a range for Heavy Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1014, base A$0.1352, optimistic A$0.1690 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.3100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heavy Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −169.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HVY from its 52-week high?
Heavy Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.3100, about 53% below its 52-week high of A$0.6600 and 13% above the low of A$0.2750 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1352 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heavy Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heavy Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.3100, calculated fair value A$0.1352 (−56%), Quality Score 25/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Heavy Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$0.3100. Our estimate is A$0.1352, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heavy Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1690). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Heavy Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
The market capitalisation of Heavy Minerals Ltd is A$22.3M (≈ $15.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
Earnings per share at Heavy Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heavy Minerals Ltd is −170% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heavy Minerals Ltd is −32.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
The operating margin of Heavy Minerals Ltd is −10,192% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY)?
Revenue at Heavy Minerals Ltd is growing −16.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +71.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY) generate?
The free cash flow of Heavy Minerals Ltd is −A$667K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Heavy Minerals Ltd (HVY) carry?
The net debt of Heavy Minerals Ltd is A$3.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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