Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Iridium Communications Inc stock $18.35, price $44.04, that is 58.3% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.52 – $62.92 · fair‑value band $11.02 – $22.93 · the $44.04 price screens above the $18.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services and products to businesses, the United States and foreign governments, non-governmental organizations, and consumers in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
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The company offers mobile satellite communications services for land mobile end users and aviation sectors; broadband terminals, embedded devices, and handsets for merchant shipping, fishing, leisure and research vessels, and specialized watercraft; satellite-based IoT services; hosted payload and other data services; and other data services and engineering services.
It also provides postpaid mobile voice and data satellite communications; prepaid mobile voice satellite communications; push-to-talk; broadband data; Internet of Things (IoT); and satellite time and location services.
In addition, the company offers personnel tracking devices; asset tracking devices for equipment, vehicles, and aircrafts; beyond-line-of-sight aircraft communications applications; maritime communications applications; specialized communications solutions for high-value individuals; and mobile communications and data devices for the military and other government agencies, such as secure satellite handsets; and maintenance services for the U.S. government's dedicated gateway.
Further, it provides satellite handsets, voice and data modems, broadband data devices, and IoT data devices; and various accessories for its devices that include batteries, holsters, earbud headphones, portable auxiliary antennas, antenna adaptors, USB data cables, and charging units.
The company sells its products and services to commercial end users through a wholesale distribution network that include service providers, and value-added resellers and value-added manufacturers.
The company was formerly known as Iridium Holdings LLC and changed its name to Iridium Communications Inc. in September 2009. Iridium Communications Inc. is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) currently trades at $44.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.35, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $33.19 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $44.04 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $7.05, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.02 (bear) to $22.93 (bull), the price of $44.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Iridium Communications Inc reported revenue of $872M in FY2025 versus $615M in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $114M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.8B Mid · P/E ratio 50.0 · P/S ratio 6.57 · EPS (TTM) $0.8800 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 31.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 184% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 51% fair-value upside, at −58%, IRDM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.02Fair Value $18.35Bull$22.93
Price $44.04 · Downside -58.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2401 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 37 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.1% (2020) → 27.1% (2025)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price and +4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business gains from embedding satellite links into IoT chipsets via the Altair partnership that widens market reach, yet high leverage with debt exceeding equity limits sustainability amid thin evidence.
Main risk: Satellite providers acquiring spectrum to support direct-to-device services threatens Iridium's satellite connectivity operations and limits expansion of its subscriber base.
Iridium is embedding its NTN Direct satellite links straight into cellular IoT chipsets via the Altair partnership. Device makers can now add global coverage without extra hardware, which widens the potential market but leaves open how quickly this scales beyond niche uses. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the chipset integrations deliver material new revenue streams or mainly protect the existing subscriber base?
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−58.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)31.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)18.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)50.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B10.33× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.29× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA16.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.89× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)42· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)27· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.35 versus a price of $44.04, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IRDM?
Our model-based fair value for Iridium Communications Inc is $18.35 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.04.
What is the quality score of IRDM?
Iridium Communications Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.35 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $22.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Iridium Communications Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.35, about 58% lower versus a price of $44.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $22.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Iridium Communications Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $903M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Iridium Communications Inc pay a dividend?
Iridium Communications Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Iridium Communications Inc pays a dividend of $0.6 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. The payout ratio is 68.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.71 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Iridium Communications Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IRDM use?
Our models discount Iridium Communications Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Iridium Communications Inc that is +9.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Iridium Communications Inc grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Iridium Communications Inc (+9.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.28 %: that much free cash flow Iridium Communications Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Iridium Communications Inc it is $18.35 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $44.04. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Iridium Communications Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, IRDM trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.04, fair value $18.35, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IRDM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.35). For Iridium Communications Inc the two are $25.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Iridium Communications Inc worth?
The market values Iridium Communications Inc at about $4.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $44.04; our models calculate a fair value of $18.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IRDM?
Our models span a range for Iridium Communications Inc: cautious scenario $11.02, base $18.35, optimistic $22.93 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $44.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IRDM?
Iridium Communications Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.35 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 10.3, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 16.3.
What is the PEG ratio of IRDM?
The PEG ratio of Iridium Communications Inc is 1.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Iridium Communications Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 31.7%, debt of 3.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IRDM from its 52-week high?
Iridium Communications Inc trades at $44.04, about 21% below its 52-week high of $55.54 and 184% above the low of $15.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Iridium Communications Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Iridium Communications Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $44.04, calculated fair value $18.35 (−58%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IRDM calculated?
We run Iridium Communications Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Iridium Communications Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $44.04. Our model-based fair value is $18.35, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Iridium Communications Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($11.02 to $22.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) come from?
Earnings per share at Iridium Communications Inc grew +0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate +6.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Iridium Communications Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The market capitalisation of Iridium Communications Inc is $4.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Iridium Communications Inc is 6.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Earnings per share at Iridium Communications Inc are $0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The dividend yield of Iridium Communications Inc is 1.4% (payout 68.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The net margin of Iridium Communications Inc is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Iridium Communications Inc is 31.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Iridium Communications Inc is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
The operating margin of Iridium Communications Inc is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Revenue at Iridium Communications Inc is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)?
Earnings per share at Iridium Communications Inc are growing +180% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) carry?
The net debt of Iridium Communications Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026