James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of James Hardie Industries Plc stock A$10.71, price A$39.20, that is 72.7% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$25.43 – A$62.60 · fair‑value band A$3.49 – A$17.19 · the A$39.20 price screens above the A$10.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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James Hardie Industries plc engages in the manufacture and sale of fiber cement, fiber gypsum, and cement bonded boards in the United States, Australia, Europe, and New Zealand. It operates through four segments: Siding & Trim, Deck, Rail & Accessories, Australia & New Zealand, and Europe.
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The Siding & Trim segment manufactures fiber cement and PVC siding and trim products, mouldings, interior linings, and accessories under brands such as Hardie, AZEK Exteriors, and Versatex are used in both residential new construction and repair and remodel applications.
The Deck, Rail & Accessories segment produces decking, railing, cladding, pergolas, cabanas, and related accessories, including wood-alternative decking and railing solutions offered under the TimberTech, ULTRALOX, and INTEX brands, as well as functional and decorative outdoor accessories, including drink rails, structural mounting posts, lighting systems and gate kits; and adjustable louvered pergola systems through StruXure.
The Australia & New Zealand segment manufactures and sells fiber cement products for residential and commercial applications, including exterior cladding, interior wall linings, flooring, eaves and soffits, and façade systems, primarily under the Hardie brand.
The Europe segment produces fiber gypsum products and cement-bonded boards under the fermacell brand, and fiber cement products under the Hardie brand, serving residential and commercial repair, remodel, and new construction markets.
The company offers its products through a network of specialty building products distributors, lumberyards, and home improvement retailers to builder's merchants, remodelers, DIY stores, and professional contractors.
James Hardie Industries plc was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock analysis
James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) currently trades at A$39.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$10.71, 73% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$7.82 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the A$39.20 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$2.09, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$3.49 (bear) to A$17.19 (bull), the price of A$39.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
James Hardie Industries Plc reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2026 versus $3.6B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2026, compounding −31.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$21.4B (≈ $14.7B) Large · P/E ratio 105.9 · P/S ratio 4.20 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3700 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2% · Operating margin 16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −73%, JHX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$2.09 to A$19.53). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearA$3.49Fair Value A$10.71BullA$17.19
Price A$39.20 · Downside -72.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2230 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeA$10.10A$10.32A$11.0176
Owner Earningsn/aA$3.01A$10.9073
EPVA$3.80A$6.11A$8.1272
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.8200A$7.68A$18.2970
Owner Earningsn/aA$3.01A$10.9073
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.36A$9.22A$19.4565
5Y EBITDA ExitA$6.72A$19.53A$34.8871
5Y P/E Exitn/an/aA$0.090068
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.6700A$7.82A$17.8359
10Y EBITDA ExitA$4.46A$15.00A$29.7763
10Y P/E Exitn/an/aA$2.8561
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$1.76A$6.24A$8.4064
Lynch FVA$1.46A$2.09A$2.7261
PEG = 1.0A$1.46A$2.09A$2.7257
EPVA$3.80A$6.11A$8.1272
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$3.30A$4.39A$5.4963
P/S MultipleA$3.30A$4.39A$5.4958
EV/EBITA$7.63A$13.92A$20.2063
EV/EBITDAA$11.44A$19.00A$26.5565
EV/RevenueA$1.39A$6.80A$12.2148
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.9200A$7.61A$17.8669
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.36A$9.14A$18.4066
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$10.10A$10.32A$11.0176
ROIC CompounderA$3.80A$6.11A$8.1271
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$2.48A$3.55A$4.6167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.2% vs −11.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.3% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The expanded North American platform after the AZEK integration broadens exposure to siding, trim and related products, yet low ROE, thin margins and limited signs of a moat constrain business quality.
Main risk: Rivals such as Allura with lower-priced fiber cement or LP with engineered wood siding could capture share from homeowners seeking affordability and force James Hardie to cut prices or accept thinner margins on its premium products.
Bull case: James Hardie could leverage its North American platform and AZEK synergies to accelerate conversion to fiber cement and composites while using AI design tools to build customer preference and defend margins.
Bear case: If cheaper rivals gain ground and leverage stays high amid weak US housing the company could face margin pressure, reduced investment capacity and asbestos outflows limiting growth or adaptation.
James Hardie has divested its European operations to focus on North America and Australia after integrating AZEK, which doubled the addressable market in siding, trim, decking and railing. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued even as management points to synergies and material conversion opportunities. Will the sharper geographic focus and expanded platform generate enough resilience to counter ongoing weakness in US residential demand?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 256 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−72.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)16.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)63.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)105.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.29× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$10.71 versus a price of A$39.20, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JHX?
Our model-based fair value for James Hardie Industries Plc is A$10.71 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$39.20.
What is the quality score of JHX?
James Hardie Industries Plc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$10.71 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.49, optimistic scenario A$17.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the James Hardie Industries Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$10.71, about 73% lower versus a price of A$39.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.49, optimistic scenario A$17.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
James Hardie Industries Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, James Hardie Industries Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +38.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JHX use?
Our models discount James Hardie Industries Plc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For James Hardie Industries Plc that is +38.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at James Hardie Industries Plc grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +38.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into James Hardie Industries Plc (+38.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.36 %: that much free cash flow James Hardie Industries Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For James Hardie Industries Plc it is A$10.71 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$39.20. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is James Hardie Industries Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, JHX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$39.20, fair value A$10.71, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JHX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$39.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$10.71). For James Hardie Industries Plc the two are A$28.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is James Hardie Industries Plc worth?
The market values James Hardie Industries Plc at about A$21.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$39.20; our models calculate a fair value of A$10.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JHX?
Our models span a range for James Hardie Industries Plc: cautious scenario A$3.49, base A$10.71, optimistic A$17.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$39.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JHX?
James Hardie Industries Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 105.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$10.71 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 27.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.3, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
What is the PEG ratio of JHX?
The PEG ratio of James Hardie Industries Plc is 1.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
Balance-sheet figures for James Hardie Industries Plc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JHX from its 52-week high?
James Hardie Industries Plc trades at A$39.20, about 11% below its 52-week high of A$43.85 and 54% above the low of A$25.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$10.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to James Hardie Industries Plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Vulcan Materials Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is James Hardie Industries Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$39.20, calculated fair value A$10.71 (−73%), Quality Score 29/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JHX calculated?
We run James Hardie Industries Plc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$10.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. James Hardie Industries Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$39.20. Our model-based fair value is A$10.71, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with James Hardie Industries Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$17.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (A$3.49 to A$17.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) come from?
Earnings per share at James Hardie Industries Plc grew +2.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of James Hardie Industries Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The market capitalisation of James Hardie Industries Plc is A$21.4B (≈ $14.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of James Hardie Industries Plc is 4.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
Earnings per share at James Hardie Industries Plc are A$0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 105.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The net margin of James Hardie Industries Plc is 2.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of James Hardie Industries Plc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of James Hardie Industries Plc is 13.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
The operating margin of James Hardie Industries Plc is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
Revenue at James Hardie Industries Plc is growing +63.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)?
Earnings per share at James Hardie Industries Plc are growing +23.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX) carry?
The net debt of James Hardie Industries Plc is $4.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 22.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026