EN DE
Watch KeyCorp for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
Data-driven stock valuation

KeyCorp (KEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of KeyCorp stock $17.63, price $20.96, that is 15.9% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Financial Services US

K KeyCorp logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

KeyCorp

KEY · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 16% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.4 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 28.0% net margin (TTM)
3.9% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Broad data
Quality 57/100
Wide moat 67/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $2.4M (6M)
Fair value $17.63 · Overvalued (−15.9%)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Fintechs and nonbanks pressure core products

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$23.76 $7.42 Fair Value $17.63 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.42 – $23.76 · fair‑value band $16.27 – $20.34 · the $20.96 price screens above the $17.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

Follow KeyCorp in your weekly email

Every Wednesday you see whether KeyCorp is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.

We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank.

Show moreShow less

The company offers various deposits and investment products; personal finance and financial wellness, lending, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, credit card, treasury, and business advisory; commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance; and wealth management and investment services for institutional, non-profit, and high-net-worth clients.

It also provides lending, cash management, equipment financing, and commercial mortgage loans; and capital market products and services, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity underwriting, fixed income and equity sales and trading, derivatives, foreign exchange, mergers and acquisition, other advisory services, and public finance to large corporate and institutional clients.

In addition, the company offers personal and institutional trust custody services, personal financial and planning services, access to mutual funds, treasury services, and international banking services.

Further, it provides community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services, as well as merchant services. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Stock analysis

KeyCorp (KEY) currently trades at $20.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.63, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.33 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $20.96 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.06, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $16.27 (bear) to $20.34 (bull), the price of $20.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

KeyCorp reported revenue of $11.2B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $22.5B Large · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 2.96 · EPS (TTM) $1.74 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 28.0% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −16%, KEY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $16.27 Fair Value $17.63 Bull $20.34
Price $20.96 · Downside -15.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7814 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $16.27 $17.63 $20.34 76
Gordon GGM $8.73 $14.06 $19.95 68
DDM Multi-Stage $8.73 $12.60 $16.77 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.73 $14.06 $19.95 68
DDM Multi-Stage $8.73 $12.60 $16.77 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $16.71 $22.28 $27.85 63
P/B Multiple $16.00 $21.33 $26.67 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.26 $11.06 $16.51 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $16.27 $17.63 $20.34 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 28
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 82
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 74
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 2
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 75
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 69
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 44
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 62
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 67
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.4M and none bought.

  • SaleAndrew J Paine IIIHead of Institutional Bank2× since Feb 6, 2026: 105,091 shares, avg. $22.47$2.4MOct 28, 2026
  • SaleMohit RamaniChief Risk Officer25,000 shares at $22.74$568,500Jul 22, 2026
  • SaleElizabeth R. GileDirector23,946 shares at $20.88$499,992Jun 3, 2026
  • SaleAngela G MagoChief Human Resources Officer2× since Jan 29, 2026: 85,676 shares, avg. $21.58$1.8MMay 8, 2026
  • SaleTrina M EvansDirector, Corporate Center32,695 shares at $21.74$710,789Jan 22, 2026

Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.5% vs 5.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

KEY screens overvalued: fair value 16% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Modest durable advantage in regional banking comes from commercial loan growth and Clearwater fee gains, while the main weakness is thin evidence of lasting edges or pricing power in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Technology advances have lowered barriers for nonbanks including fintechs to offer embedded finance and payments that could take customers or force lower prices and margins on KeyCorp's core banking products.
Bull case: KeyCorp could deepen its embedded banking platform and fintech partnerships to integrate more seamlessly into client software and capture a larger share of payments and treasury flows despite rival offerings.
Bear case: If fintech platforms and nonbank providers continue to lower costs and improve user experience in embedded finance, KeyCorp might lose primacy in client relationships and face pressure on deposit and fee income.
KeyCorp raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to around 8 percent at the September Barclays conference, citing stronger net interest income, commercial loan expansion and fee gains from the Clearwater acquisition. The regional bank aims to keep credit costs steady even as funding dynamics shift. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the push into higher-yielding assets and international advisory work deliver enough to close the gap, or will expense creep and slower second-half loan growth limit the upside?
Join the discussion →

Compare KeyCorp with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −15.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.2% · Above median
Return on assets 1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 28.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 37.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.49× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 2.96× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 10.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.34× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)12 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)58 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)45 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)76 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)78 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.52 ¥7.59 +38% vs KEY
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.54 ¥52.73 +24% vs KEY
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.94 €106.01 +15% vs KEY
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.27 €4.59 −27% vs KEY
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €77.18 €50.44 −35% vs KEY
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 27.93 SGD 18.20 SGD −35% vs KEY
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.39 $5.90 −37% vs KEY
DBS Group D05 71.20 SGD 40.39 SGD −43% vs KEY
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹760.00 ₹406.39 −47% vs KEY
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,500 ₹615.63 −59% vs KEY

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Financial Services stocks →

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

KeyCorp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KeyCorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KEY

Frequently asked questions

Is KeyCorp (KEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.63 versus a price of $20.96, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KEY?
Our model-based fair value for KeyCorp is $17.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.96.
What is the quality score of KEY?
KeyCorp has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KeyCorp (KEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.27, optimistic scenario $20.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KeyCorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.63, about 16% lower versus a price of $20.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.27, optimistic scenario $20.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KeyCorp (KEY)?
KeyCorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does KeyCorp pay a dividend?
KeyCorp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of KeyCorp (KEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KeyCorp it is $17.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $20.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KeyCorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KEY trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.96, fair value $17.63, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.63). For KeyCorp the two are $3.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KeyCorp worth?
The market values KeyCorp at about $22.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $20.96; our models calculate a fair value of $17.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KEY?
Our models span a range for KeyCorp: cautious scenario $16.27, base $17.63, optimistic $20.34 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $20.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KEY?
KeyCorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2023 ex one-offs: 11.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of KEY?
The PEG ratio of KeyCorp is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of KeyCorp (KEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for KeyCorp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KEY from its 52-week high?
KeyCorp trades at $20.96, about 12% below its 52-week high of $23.76 and 27% above the low of $16.44 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KeyCorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KeyCorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $20.96, calculated fair value $17.63 (−16%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KEY calculated?
We run KeyCorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. KeyCorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $20.96. Our model-based fair value is $17.63, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KeyCorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of KeyCorp (KEY) come from?
Earnings per share at KeyCorp grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of KeyCorp

How large is the market capitalisation of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The market capitalisation of KeyCorp is $22.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KeyCorp is 2.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KeyCorp (KEY)?
Earnings per share at KeyCorp are $1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The dividend yield of KeyCorp is 3.9% (payout 47.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The net margin of KeyCorp is 28.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KeyCorp is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KeyCorp (KEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KeyCorp is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The operating margin of KeyCorp is 37.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at KeyCorp (KEY)?
Revenue at KeyCorp is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KeyCorp (KEY)?
Earnings per share at KeyCorp are growing +24.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does KeyCorp (KEY) generate?
The free cash flow of KeyCorp is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does KeyCorp (KEY) carry?
The net debt of KeyCorp is $9.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Watch KeyCorp in the live analysis

One click puts KeyCorp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.