KeyCorp (KEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of KeyCorp stock $17.63, price $20.96, that is 15.9% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.42 – $23.76 · fair‑value band $16.27 – $20.34 · the $20.96 price screens above the $17.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank.
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The company offers various deposits and investment products; personal finance and financial wellness, lending, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, credit card, treasury, and business advisory; commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance; and wealth management and investment services for institutional, non-profit, and high-net-worth clients.
It also provides lending, cash management, equipment financing, and commercial mortgage loans; and capital market products and services, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity underwriting, fixed income and equity sales and trading, derivatives, foreign exchange, mergers and acquisition, other advisory services, and public finance to large corporate and institutional clients.
In addition, the company offers personal and institutional trust custody services, personal financial and planning services, access to mutual funds, treasury services, and international banking services.
Further, it provides community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services, as well as merchant services. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Stock analysis
KeyCorp (KEY) currently trades at $20.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.63, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.33 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $20.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.06, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.27 (bear) to $20.34 (bull), the price of $20.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
KeyCorp reported revenue of $11.2B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.5B Large · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 2.96 · EPS (TTM) $1.74 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 28.0% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −16%, KEY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$16.27Fair Value $17.63Bull$20.34
Price $20.96 · Downside -15.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7814 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.4M and none bought.
SaleAndrew J Paine IIIHead of Institutional Bank2× since Feb 6, 2026: 105,091 shares, avg. $22.47$2.4MOct 28, 2026
SaleMohit RamaniChief Risk Officer25,000 shares at $22.74$568,500Jul 22, 2026
SaleElizabeth R. GileDirector23,946 shares at $20.88$499,992Jun 3, 2026
SaleAngela G MagoChief Human Resources Officer2× since Jan 29, 2026: 85,676 shares, avg. $21.58$1.8MMay 8, 2026
SaleTrina M EvansDirector, Corporate Center32,695 shares at $21.74$710,789Jan 22, 2026
Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.5% vs 5.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.1% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Modest durable advantage in regional banking comes from commercial loan growth and Clearwater fee gains, while the main weakness is thin evidence of lasting edges or pricing power in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Technology advances have lowered barriers for nonbanks including fintechs to offer embedded finance and payments that could take customers or force lower prices and margins on KeyCorp's core banking products.
Bull case: KeyCorp could deepen its embedded banking platform and fintech partnerships to integrate more seamlessly into client software and capture a larger share of payments and treasury flows despite rival offerings.
Bear case: If fintech platforms and nonbank providers continue to lower costs and improve user experience in embedded finance, KeyCorp might lose primacy in client relationships and face pressure on deposit and fee income.
KeyCorp raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to around 8 percent at the September Barclays conference, citing stronger net interest income, commercial loan expansion and fee gains from the Clearwater acquisition. The regional bank aims to keep credit costs steady even as funding dynamics shift. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the push into higher-yielding assets and international advisory work deliver enough to close the gap, or will expense creep and slower second-half loan growth limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Return on assets1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)28.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.96× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.7× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KeyCorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KEY
Frequently asked questions
Is KeyCorp (KEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.63 versus a price of $20.96, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KEY?
Our model-based fair value for KeyCorp is $17.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.96.
What is the quality score of KEY?
KeyCorp has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KeyCorp (KEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.27, optimistic scenario $20.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KeyCorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.63, about 16% lower versus a price of $20.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.27, optimistic scenario $20.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KeyCorp (KEY)?
KeyCorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does KeyCorp pay a dividend?
KeyCorp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into KeyCorp (KEY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, KeyCorp would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KEY use?
Our models discount KeyCorp at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For KeyCorp that is -2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has KeyCorp (KEY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at KeyCorp grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies -2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of KeyCorp (KEY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into KeyCorp (-2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.36 %: that much free cash flow KeyCorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of KeyCorp (KEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KeyCorp it is $17.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $20.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KeyCorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KEY trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.96, fair value $17.63, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.63). For KeyCorp the two are $3.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KeyCorp worth?
The market values KeyCorp at about $22.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $20.96; our models calculate a fair value of $17.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KEY?
Our models span a range for KeyCorp: cautious scenario $16.27, base $17.63, optimistic $20.34 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $20.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KEY?
KeyCorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2023 ex one-offs: 11.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of KEY?
The PEG ratio of KeyCorp is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of KeyCorp (KEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for KeyCorp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KEY from its 52-week high?
KeyCorp trades at $20.96, about 12% below its 52-week high of $23.76 and 27% above the low of $16.44 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KeyCorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KeyCorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $20.96, calculated fair value $17.63 (−16%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KEY calculated?
We run KeyCorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. KeyCorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $20.96. Our model-based fair value is $17.63, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KeyCorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of KeyCorp (KEY) come from?
Earnings per share at KeyCorp grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of KeyCorp
How large is the market capitalisation of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The market capitalisation of KeyCorp is $22.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KeyCorp is 2.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KeyCorp (KEY)?
Earnings per share at KeyCorp are $1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The dividend yield of KeyCorp is 3.9% (payout 47.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The net margin of KeyCorp is 28.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KeyCorp is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KeyCorp (KEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KeyCorp is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KeyCorp (KEY)?
The operating margin of KeyCorp is 37.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at KeyCorp (KEY)?
Revenue at KeyCorp is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KeyCorp (KEY)?
Earnings per share at KeyCorp are growing +24.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does KeyCorp (KEY) carry?
The net debt of KeyCorp is $9.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026