KeyCorp (KEY) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $25.1B
KeyCorp
KEY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.49 – $23.99 · fair‑value band $14.04 – $23.41 · the $22.66 price screens above the $18.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
KeyCorp (KEY) currently trades at $22.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.73, implying the stock looks roughly 17.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, KeyCorp generated revenue of $7.2B at a net margin of 27.0%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at $9.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.04 (bear case) to $23.41 (bull case); at $22.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -17%, KEY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($27.31) versus Earnings-Based ($10.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank.
Full company description
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits and investment products; personal finance and financial wellness, lending, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, credit card, treasury, and business advisory; commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance; and wealth management and investment services for institutional, non-profit, and high-net-worth clients. It also provides lending, cash management, equipment financing, and commercial mortgage loans; and capital market products and services, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity underwriting, fixed income and equity sales and trading, derivatives, foreign exchange, mergers and acquisition, other advisory services, and public finance to large corporate and institutional clients. In addition, the company offers personal and institutional trust custody services, personal financial and planning services, access to mutual funds, treasury services, and international banking services. Further, it provides community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services, as well as merchant services. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
KeyCorp reported revenue of $11.2B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.
KEY screens 17% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- KEYCORP ANNOUNCES 2027 QUARTERLY EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL DATES
- Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting KeyCorp Stock Will Climb or Sink?
- KeyBank Parent KeyCorp (KEY) Lands Founding Partner Role With Cleveland WNBA Team
- KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Even After 110% Gains
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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