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Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock $1.04, price $1.01, upside +2.7%, quality 24 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · Based in Hong Kong · ISIN KYG283651076

MT Metalpha Technology Holding Limited logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited

MATH · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $1.04 · Fairly valued
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +177.5 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 3.5% net margin (TTM)
Some data
Profit last quarter 63% below a year ago.
Quality 24/100
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 41/100 · thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.11 $0.4500 Fair Value $1.04 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.4500 – $4.11 · fair‑value band $0.6375 – $1.90 · the $1.01 price screens below the $1.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wealth management services in Hong Kong.

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It offers digital asset-based wealth management services; executes cryptocurrency-related transactions, including the issuance of derivative products to over-the-counter clients; proprietary trading services; crypto derivative market making services for clients, as well as facilitates the trading of crypto derivative products; traditional financial derivative products; and securities advisory and asset management services.

The company also provides licensed services. It serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. The company was formerly known as Dragon Victory International Limited and changed its name to Metalpha Technology Holding Limited in November 2022.

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) currently trades at $1.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.04, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.6%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.62 per share, and 8 of the 11 models we run sit above the $1.01 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.7400, and 3 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.6375 (bear) to $1.90 (bull), the price of $1.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited reported revenue of $37.1M in FY2026 versus $123K in FY2022, a compound +317.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $46.7M Micro · P/E ratio 50.5 · P/S ratio 1.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 3%, MATH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.6375 Fair Value $1.04 Bull $1.90
Price $1.01 · Upside +2.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0122 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $0.7300 $0.7400 $0.7800 76
Growth DCF $1.61 $2.79 $5.07 72
Owner Earnings $0.5500 $1.12 $2.24 69
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.5500 $1.12 $2.24 69
5Y P/E Exit $0.7500 $1.22 $1.81 67
10Y P/E Exit $1.05 $1.71 $2.66 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.1800 $1.28 $1.80 63
Lynch FV $0.4700 $0.6700 $0.8700 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.2600 $0.3500 $0.4400 63
P/B Multiple $1.17 $1.56 $1.95 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7300 $1.10 $1.38 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.61 $2.79 $5.07 72
Rev-Margin DCF $1.30 $2.45 $4.56 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.7300 $0.7400 $0.7800 76

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 13
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 39
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+86.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+177.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +36.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,740.0% (2021) → −96.4% (2026)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +2.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 3.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 17.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 1.1% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 50.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.26× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 0.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 31.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)37 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)6 · sector 68
PAST (return on equity)11 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $181.44 $260.72 +44% vs MATH
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $91.49 $117.60 +29% vs MATH
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs MATH
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.42 $10.17 +8% vs MATH
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $865.82 $766.86 −11% vs MATH
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs MATH
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $80.91 $47.60 −41% vs MATH
Macquarie Group MQG A$247.94 A$123.84 −50% vs MATH
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs MATH
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $75.82 $17.48 −77% vs MATH

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Metalpha Technology Holding Limited: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metalpha Technology Holding Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MATH

Frequently asked questions

Is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.04 versus a price of $1.01, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MATH?
Our model-based fair value for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is $1.04 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.01.
What is the quality score of MATH?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.04 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6375, optimistic scenario $1.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.04, about +3% upside versus a price of $1.01 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.6375, optimistic scenario $1.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $37.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metalpha Technology Holding Limited it is $1.04 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $1.01. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MATH trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.01, fair value $1.04, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MATH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.04). For Metalpha Technology Holding Limited the two are $0.0270 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited worth?
The market values Metalpha Technology Holding Limited at about $46.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $1.01; our models calculate a fair value of $1.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MATH?
Our models span a range for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited: cautious scenario $0.6375, base $1.04, optimistic $1.90 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $1.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MATH?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 31.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 2.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MATH from its 52-week high?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited trades at $1.01, about 68% below its 52-week high of $3.17 and 36% above the low of $0.7450 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metalpha Technology Holding Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $1.01, calculated fair value $1.04 (+3%), Quality Score 24/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MATH calculated?
We run Metalpha Technology Holding Limited through 11 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Metalpha Technology Holding Limited currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.01. Our model-based fair value is $1.04, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metalpha Technology Holding Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.6375 to $1.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The market capitalisation of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is $46.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 1.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Earnings per share at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The net margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The operating margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Revenue at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +86.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Earnings per share at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited are growing −63.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) generate?
The free cash flow of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is $75.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) hold?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited holds more cash than debt, $3.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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