Metalpha Technology Holding (MATH) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $43.8M

Below-average quality, screening 58% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.4500 – $4.11 · fair‑value band $1.05 – $1.76 · the $0.8931 price screens below the $1.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Metalpha Technology Holding (MATH) currently trades at $0.8931, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.41, implying the stock looks roughly 58.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Metalpha Technology Holding generated revenue of $36.9M at a net margin of 18.9%. Revenue declined 39.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.05 (bear case) to $1.76 (bull case); at $0.8931, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 58%, MATH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($12.82) versus Growth DCF ($0.1700). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wealth management services in Hong Kong. It offers digital asset-based wealth management services; executes cryptocurrency-related transactions, including the issuance of derivative products to over-the-counter clients; proprietary trading services; crypto derivative market making …

Full company description

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wealth management services in Hong Kong. It offers digital asset-based wealth management services; executes cryptocurrency-related transactions, including the issuance of derivative products to over-the-counter clients; proprietary trading services; crypto derivative market making services for clients, as well as facilitates the trading of crypto derivative products; traditional financial derivative products; and securities advisory and asset management services. The company also provides licensed services. It serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. The company was formerly known as Dragon Victory International Limited and changed its name to Metalpha Technology Holding Limited in November 2022. Metalpha Technology Holding Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Metalpha Technology Holding reported revenue of $44.6M in FY2025 versus $226K in FY2021, a compound +274.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.9M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Capital Markets · 423 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.