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Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited $1.70, price $1.00, upside +70.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US00768Y8268

MT Metalpha Technology Holding Limited logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited

MATH · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $1.70 · Strongly undervalued (+70%)
!Quality 39/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +613.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.9% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.11 $0.4500 Fair Value $1.70 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.4500 – $4.11 · fair‑value band $1.10 – $2.34 · the $1.00 price screens below the $1.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wealth management services in Hong Kong.

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Metalpha Technology Holding Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wealth management services in Hong Kong. It offers digital asset-based wealth management services; executes cryptocurrency-related transactions, including the issuance of derivative products to over-the-counter clients; proprietary trading services; crypto derivative market making services for clients, as well as facilitates the trading of crypto derivative products; traditional financial derivative products; and securities advisory and asset management services. The company also provides licensed services. It serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. The company was formerly known as Dragon Victory International Limited and changed its name to Metalpha Technology Holding Limited in November 2022. Metalpha Technology Holding Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) currently trades at $1.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.70, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $12.82 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the $1.00 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.2100, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.10 (bear) to $2.34 (bull), the price of $1.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Metalpha Technology Holding Limited reported revenue of $44.6M in FY2025 versus $226K in FY2021, a compound +274.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $43.8M · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 1.98 · EPS (TTM) $0.1800 · Net margin 35.7% · Return on equity 23.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.7% · Operating margin −24.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 70%, MATH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.10 Fair Value $1.70 Bull $2.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1800 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $0.1900 $0.2100 $0.2600 75
Owner Earnings $5.66 $12.34 $25.86 66
P/E Multiple $3.57 $4.76 $5.95 63
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $5.66 $12.34 $25.86 66
5Y P/E Exit $2.80 $6.94 $12.73 62
10Y P/E Exit $2.06 $5.73 $12.11 54
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.49 $17.37 $24.37 61
Lynch FV $8.97 $12.82 $16.66 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.57 $4.76 $5.95 63
P/B Multiple $0.8800 $1.18 $1.47 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4200 $0.5600 $0.8400 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.1900 $0.2100 $0.2600 75
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.93 $4.44 $62.45 61

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 99
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+165.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+613.5%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.0% (2018) → −27.3% (2023)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 460 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +70% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 19% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −24% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −39% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.20× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.19× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1,776.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 92
PAST (return on equity)92 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $196.32 $314.07 +60%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $923.29 $766.86 −17%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.49 $118.07 +19%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.82 $23.27 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $122.70 $47.73 −61%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.55 A$80.51 −67%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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Metalpha Technology Holding Limited · Fair Value
$1.70 +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metalpha Technology Holding Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MATH

Frequently asked questions

Is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.70 versus a price of $1.00, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MATH?
Our model-based fair value for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is $1.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.00.
What is the quality score of MATH?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.10, optimistic scenario $2.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.70, about +70% upside versus a price of $1.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.10, optimistic scenario $2.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $36.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metalpha Technology Holding Limited it is $1.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.00. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MATH trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.00, fair value $1.70, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MATH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.70). For Metalpha Technology Holding Limited the two are $0.7000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited worth?
The market values Metalpha Technology Holding Limited at about $43.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.00; our models calculate a fair value of $1.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MATH?
Our models span a range for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited: cautious scenario $1.10, base $1.70, optimistic $2.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MATH?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MATH from its 52-week high?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited trades at $1.00, about 75% below its 52-week high of $3.99 and 34% above the low of $0.7450 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metalpha Technology Holding Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metalpha Technology Holding Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.00, calculated fair value $1.70 (+70%), Quality Score 39/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MATH calculated?
We run Metalpha Technology Holding Limited through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Metalpha Technology Holding Limited currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $1.00. Our model-based fair value is $1.70, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metalpha Technology Holding Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($1.10 to $2.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The market capitalisation of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is $43.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 1.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Earnings per share at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited are $0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The net margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 35.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is −6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
The operating margin of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is −24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Revenue at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is growing −39.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +613%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH)?
Earnings per share at Metalpha Technology Holding Limited are growing +72.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) generate?
The free cash flow of Metalpha Technology Holding Limited is $24.7K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Metalpha Technology Holding Limited (MATH) hold?
Metalpha Technology Holding Limited holds more cash than debt, $6.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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