Metals X Ltd (MLX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Metals X Ltd stock A$1.47, price A$1.52, that is 3.3% below the price, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2450 – A$2.17 · fair‑value band A$0.9570 – A$2.42 · the A$1.52 price screens above the A$1.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Metals X Limited engages in the production of tin in Australia. The company holds a 50% interest in the Renison tin project located on the Northwest Tasmania. It offers tin-in-concentrate, as well as invests in companies undertaking exploration and development of tin, gold, and base metals projects.
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Metals X Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in South Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Metals X Ltd (MLX) currently trades at A$1.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.47, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$3.69 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.3100, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$0.9570 (bear) to A$2.42 (bull), the price of A$1.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Metals X Ltd reported revenue of A$285M in FY2026 versus A$229M in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$105M in FY2026, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.3B (≈ $925M) Small · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 3.94 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1800 · Net margin 45.5% · Return on equity 27.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 59.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −3%, MLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.9570Fair Value A$1.47BullA$2.42
Price A$1.52 · Downside -3.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0646 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$1.77A$2.44A$4.4478
Growth DCFA$1.68A$2.58A$4.2477
EPVA$1.13A$1.24A$1.3374
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$1.77A$2.44A$4.4478
Owner EarningsA$1.24A$2.23A$4.0773
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.04A$1.38A$2.0773
5Y EBITDA ExitA$1.66A$2.62A$4.5273
5Y P/E ExitA$1.83A$3.64A$6.0868
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.28A$1.98A$2.3168
10Y EBITDA ExitA$1.70A$3.20A$5.7665
10Y P/E ExitA$1.82A$3.55A$6.3661
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.8000A$5.60A$7.8563
Lynch FVA$2.20A$3.15A$4.0961
PEG = 1.0A$2.20A$3.15A$4.0957
EPVA$1.13A$1.24A$1.3374
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$1.50A$2.01A$2.5163
P/S MultipleA$0.3600A$0.4800A$0.600058
P/B MultipleA$0.6100A$0.8100A$1.0255
EV/EBITA$1.77A$2.25A$2.7366
EV/EBITDAA$1.58A$2.00A$2.4167
EV/RevenueA$0.6700A$0.8100A$0.950054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.2100A$0.3100A$0.390055
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$1.68A$2.58A$4.2477
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.05A$1.53A$2.4472
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.6700A$0.9000A$1.4768
ROIC CompounderA$1.32A$1.69A$2.1672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$2.58A$3.69A$4.7967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.6% vs −2.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 43%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.0% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 371 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)45.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)59.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.53× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.94× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metals X Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MLX
Frequently asked questions
Is Metals X Ltd (MLX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.47 versus a price of A$1.52, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MLX?
Our model-based fair value for Metals X Ltd is A$1.47 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.52.
What is the quality score of MLX?
Metals X Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.47 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.9570, optimistic scenario A$2.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metals X Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.47, about 3% lower versus a price of A$1.52 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.9570, optimistic scenario A$2.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Metals X Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$342M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metals X Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.9 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MLX use?
Our models discount Metals X Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metals X Ltd that is +1.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metals X Ltd (MLX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metals X Ltd grew +24.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metals X Ltd (MLX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metals X Ltd (+1.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.86 %: that much free cash flow Metals X Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metals X Ltd it is A$1.47 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of A$1.52. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Metals X Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MLX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.52, fair value A$1.47, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MLX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.47). For Metals X Ltd the two are A$0.0503 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metals X Ltd worth?
The market values Metals X Ltd at about A$1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is A$1.52; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MLX?
Our models span a range for Metals X Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.9570, base A$1.47, optimistic A$2.42 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price A$1.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MLX?
Metals X Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 3.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.5, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MLX?
The PEG ratio of Metals X Ltd is 2.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metals X Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 27.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MLX from its 52-week high?
Metals X Ltd trades at A$1.52, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$2.17 and 97% above the low of A$0.7700 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metals X Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metals X Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price A$1.52, calculated fair value A$1.47 (−3%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MLX calculated?
We run Metals X Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Metals X Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$1.52. Our model-based fair value is A$1.47, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metals X Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$0.9570 to A$2.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Metals X Ltd (MLX) come from?
Earnings per share at Metals X Ltd grew −6.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.0 %, EBIT margin +15.5 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Metals X Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The market capitalisation of Metals X Ltd is A$1.3B (≈ $925M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metals X Ltd is 3.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Earnings per share at Metals X Ltd are A$0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The net margin of Metals X Ltd is 45.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metals X Ltd is 27.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metals X Ltd is 21.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
The operating margin of Metals X Ltd is 59.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Revenue at Metals X Ltd is growing +38.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metals X Ltd (MLX)?
Earnings per share at Metals X Ltd are growing +101% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Metals X Ltd (MLX) hold?
Metals X Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$290M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026