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Metals X Limited (MLX) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$1.2B

MX Metals X Limited MLX · AU
PriceA$1.85
Fair ValueA$2.00
Upside+8.1%
Quality73/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 36.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Wide moat 85/100
Evidence: High Range A$1.50 – A$2.99 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$1.47 to A$2.00 (+36.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +39.6% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (A$1.50 to A$2.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$1.85 A$0.2085 Fair Value A$2.00 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2085 – A$1.85 · fair‑value band A$1.50 – A$2.99 · the A$1.85 price screens below the A$2.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Metals X Limited (MLX) currently trades at A$1.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.00, implying the stock looks roughly 8.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Metals X Limited generated revenue of A$285M at a net margin of 36.7%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$290M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$1.50 (bear case) to A$2.99 (bull case); at A$1.85, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 257% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 8%, MLX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$1.66 A$2.54 A$4.15 80
Residual Income A$0.6700 A$0.8900 A$2.81 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$1.03 A$1.52 A$2.40 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$1.75 A$2.40 A$4.35 38
Owner Earnings A$1.70 A$3.16 A$5.88 31
5Y Revenue Exit A$1.03 A$1.37 A$2.06 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$1.65 A$2.61 A$4.49 41
5Y P/E Exit A$1.82 A$3.58 A$5.97 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$1.26 A$1.95 A$2.29 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$1.68 A$3.14 A$5.71 37
10Y P/E Exit A$1.80 A$3.47 A$6.30 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.8000 A$5.60 A$7.85 54
Lynch FV A$2.03 A$2.90 A$3.78 50
PEG = 1.0 A$2.03 A$2.90 A$3.78 46
EPV A$1.12 A$1.23 A$1.32 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$1.50 A$2.01 A$2.51 63
P/S Multiple A$0.3600 A$0.4800 A$0.6000 58
P/B Multiple A$1.35 A$1.80 A$2.25 55
EV/EBIT A$1.77 A$2.25 A$2.73 53
EV/EBITDA A$1.58 A$2.00 A$2.42 54
EV/Revenue A$0.6700 A$0.8100 A$0.9600 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.3000 A$0.4000 A$0.6000 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$1.66 A$2.54 A$4.15 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$1.03 A$1.52 A$2.40 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.6700 A$0.8900 A$2.81 76
ROIC Compounder A$1.29 A$1.64 A$2.07 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$2.42 A$3.46 A$4.50 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$3.46) versus Asset-Based (A$0.4000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$285M
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.0%
Net margin 36.7%
Return on equity 21.8%
Free cash flow A$92.4M FY2026
P/E ratio 12.7
More key figures
Operating margin 43.7%
EPS (TTM) A$0.1200
EPS growth (YoY) -38.6%
Net cash A$290M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 90
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 95
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Metals X Limited engages in the production of tin in Australia. The company holds a 50% interest in the Renison tin project located on the Northwest Tasmania. It offers tin-in-concentrate, as well as invests in companies undertaking exploration and development of tin, gold, and base metals projects.

Full company description

Metals X Limited engages in the production of tin in Australia. The company holds a 50% interest in the Renison tin project located on the Northwest Tasmania. It offers tin-in-concentrate, as well as invests in companies undertaking exploration and development of tin, gold, and base metals projects. Metals X Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in South Perth, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Metals X Limited reported revenue of A$285M in FY2026 versus A$229M in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$105M in FY2026, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
A$285M
Latest YoY
+30.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+14.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+24.9%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+19.7%
Revenue +5.6%/yr
FY22 A$229M
FY23 A$188M
FY24 A$154M
FY25 A$219M
FY26 A$285M
Net income −13.2%/yr
FY22 A$184M
FY23 A$144M
FY24 A$14.6M
FY25 A$102M
FY26 A$105M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metals X Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MLX

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +8% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 11% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.65× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.08× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 9.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.66× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 44 · sector 0
FUTURE 55 · sector 23
PAST 87 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.14 -36%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.20 ¥16.15 -11%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Metals X Limited (MLX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.00 versus a price of A$1.85, about +8% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MLX?
Our model-based fair value for Metals X Limited is A$2.00 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$1.85.
What is the quality score of MLX?
Metals X Limited has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Metals X Limited (MLX)?
Metals X Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$285M (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MLX?
The net profit margin of Metals X Limited is about 36.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 36.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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