Metals X Limited (MLX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$1.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$1.47 to A$2.00 (+36.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +39.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.50 to A$2.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2085 – A$1.85 · fair‑value band A$1.50 – A$2.99 · the A$1.85 price screens below the A$2.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Metals X Limited (MLX) currently trades at A$1.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.00, implying the stock looks roughly 8.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Metals X Limited generated revenue of A$285M at a net margin of 36.7%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$290M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.50 (bear case) to A$2.99 (bull case); at A$1.85, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 257% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 8%, MLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$3.46) versus Asset-Based (A$0.4000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Metals X Limited engages in the production of tin in Australia. The company holds a 50% interest in the Renison tin project located on the Northwest Tasmania. It offers tin-in-concentrate, as well as invests in companies undertaking exploration and development of tin, gold, and base metals projects.
Full company description
Metals X Limited engages in the production of tin in Australia. The company holds a 50% interest in the Renison tin project located on the Northwest Tasmania. It offers tin-in-concentrate, as well as invests in companies undertaking exploration and development of tin, gold, and base metals projects. Metals X Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in South Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Metals X Limited reported revenue of A$285M in FY2026 versus A$229M in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$105M in FY2026, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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