Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Murphy Oil Corporation stock $33.74, price $35.96, that is 6.2% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.39 – $44.34 · fair‑value band $23.70 – $40.29 · the $35.96 price screens above the $33.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.
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Murphy Oil Corporation was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) currently trades at $35.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.74, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $27.16 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $35.96 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $8.39, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.70 (bear) to $40.29 (bull), the price of $35.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Murphy Oil Corporation reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B Mid · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) $2.02 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −6%, MUR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.70Fair Value $33.74Bull$40.29
Price $35.96 · Downside -6.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5727 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$22.70$35.54$54.5578
Growth DCF$23.68$35.80$53.0777
Residual Income$24.93$24.95$25.7276
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$22.70$35.54$54.5578
Owner Earnings$11.60$19.34$30.8074
5Y Revenue Exit$11.76$18.06$25.5871
5Y EBITDA Exit$22.80$37.56$53.9074
5Y P/E Exit$8.90$13.01$16.9471
10Y Revenue Exit$15.13$21.54$29.0466
10Y EBITDA Exit$22.51$34.96$50.0067
10Y P/E Exit$13.66$18.07$22.6564
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$4.94$11.04$14.1165
PEG = 1.0$1.79$2.56$3.3357
EPV$12.63$15.78$18.5873
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$9.36$15.51$22.9167
DDM Multi-Stage$9.36$13.87$19.1466
Multiples
P/E Multiple$7.63$10.18$12.7263
P/S Multiple$9.27$12.36$15.4557
P/B Multiple$24.26$32.35$40.4455
EV/EBIT$5.66$10.73$15.8062
EV/EBITDA$22.62$33.34$44.0766
EV/Revenue$2.28$7.35$12.4248
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$17.69$23.71$35.3953
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$23.68$35.80$53.0777
Rev-Margin DCF$11.76$18.51$25.8371
Economic Profit
Residual Income$24.93$24.95$25.7276
ROIC Compounder$12.63$15.78$18.5871
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$5.87$8.39$10.9167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleDaniel R HancheraSenior Vice President47,320 shares at $33.79$1.6MMar 11, 2026
SaleMaria A MartinezSenior Vice President8,608 shares at $34.93$300,677Mar 3, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.4% vs −17.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−78% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence of durable advantage in standard E&P processes is paired with low returns and price-taker exposure that keep margins thin.
Main risk: Persistent price-taker status exposes the business to oil-price swings that directly pressure free cash flow from new developments.
Murphy Oil expects first oil from the Lac Da Vang development in Vietnam before year end, with net production ramping to 10-15 thousand barrels per day by the end of 2029. The company has also lifted its 2026 capital budget to fund appraisal of recent discoveries and further organic growth. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the contribution from these new projects generate enough free cash flow to justify the added spending, or will returns stay constrained?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−6.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)13.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.34× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.7× · Pricier than median
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Is Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.74 versus a price of $35.96, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MUR?
Our model-based fair value for Murphy Oil Corporation is $33.74 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.96.
What is the quality score of MUR?
Murphy Oil Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.74 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.70, optimistic scenario $40.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Murphy Oil Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.74, about 6% lower versus a price of $35.96 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $23.70, optimistic scenario $40.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Murphy Oil Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Murphy Oil Corporation pay a dividend?
Murphy Oil Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.75% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Murphy Oil Corporation pays a dividend of $1.35 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026, with payment on Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1983. The payout ratio is 35.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 66.8%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.05 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Murphy Oil Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MUR use?
Our models discount Murphy Oil Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Murphy Oil Corporation that is +2.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Murphy Oil Corporation grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Murphy Oil Corporation (+2.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.54 %: that much free cash flow Murphy Oil Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Murphy Oil Corporation it is $33.74 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $35.96. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Murphy Oil Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MUR trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.96, fair value $33.74, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.74). For Murphy Oil Corporation the two are $2.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Murphy Oil Corporation worth?
The market values Murphy Oil Corporation at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $35.96; our models calculate a fair value of $33.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MUR?
Our models span a range for Murphy Oil Corporation: cautious scenario $23.70, base $33.74, optimistic $40.29 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $35.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MUR?
Murphy Oil Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.74 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 26.3 (reported for FY2025: 49.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 9.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.0, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of MUR?
The PEG ratio of Murphy Oil Corporation is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Murphy Oil Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MUR from its 52-week high?
Murphy Oil Corporation trades at $35.96, about 19% below its 52-week high of $44.34 and 34% above the low of $26.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Murphy Oil Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Murphy Oil Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $35.96, calculated fair value $33.74 (−6%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MUR calculated?
We run Murphy Oil Corporation through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $33.74 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Murphy Oil Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $35.96. Our model-based fair value is $33.74, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Murphy Oil Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Murphy Oil Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The market capitalisation of Murphy Oil Corporation is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Murphy Oil Corporation is 2.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Earnings per share at Murphy Oil Corporation are $2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The dividend yield of Murphy Oil Corporation is 3.8% (payout 35.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 66.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The net margin of Murphy Oil Corporation is 9.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Murphy Oil Corporation is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Murphy Oil Corporation is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
The operating margin of Murphy Oil Corporation is 37.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Revenue at Murphy Oil Corporation is growing +35.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)?
Earnings per share at Murphy Oil Corporation are growing +917% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) carry?
The net debt of Murphy Oil Corporation is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026