National Bank of Canada (NA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Bank of Canada stock C$93.37, price C$219, that is 57.4% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$70.57 – C$235.32 · fair‑value band C$80.72 – C$139.21 · the C$218.96 price screens above the C$93.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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National Bank of Canada provides financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional clients, and governments in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management, Financial Markets, and U.S. Specialty Finance and International.
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The Personal and Commercial segment offers banking, financing, and investing services to individuals, advisors, and businesses, as well as insurance operations.
The Wealth Management segment provides investment solutions, trust services, banking services, lending services, and other wealth management solutions offered through internal and third-party distribution networks.
The Financial Markets segment offers corporate and investment banking solutions for large and mid-size corporations, public sector organizations, and institutional investors.
The U.S. Specialty Finance and International segment provides specialty finance products; and personal and commercial banking in Cambodia. National Bank of Canada was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Stock analysis
National Bank of Canada (NA) currently trades at C$218.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$93.37, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$105.76 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the C$218.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$50.61, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$80.72 (bear) to C$139.21 (bull), the price of C$218.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
National Bank of Canada reported revenue of C$30.8B in FY2025 versus C$8.9B in FY2021, a compound +36.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.0B in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$85.4B (≈ $60.9B) Large · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 5.86 · EPS (TTM) C$11.96 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 33.3% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −57%, NA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$80.72Fair Value C$93.37BullC$139.21
Price C$218.96 · Downside -57.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$6.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+184.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs 9.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−22.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.5% a year for the price and −23.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The bank's main strength is its solid earnings momentum in capital markets, wealth management and commercial banking, while its main weakness is the absence of identifiable durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Widespread adoption of generative AI tools could intensify competition and compress profit margins in retail banking for National Bank of Canada as the technology becomes broadly available without lasting differentiation.
Bull case: National Bank of Canada could leverage its entrepreneurial culture and partnerships with fintechs to integrate AI efficiently while expanding market share in commercial and personal banking through faster digital services.
Bear case: If AI commoditises services and neobanks capture significant personal banking volume, National Bank of Canada might face sustained margin pressure and slower growth in its core retail segments despite capital strength.
National Bank has just launched its normal course issuer bid, giving management more room to adjust capital levels after finishing the last program. Solid earnings momentum from capital markets, wealth management and commercial banking has continued even as the bank flags higher household rate risks from shorter mortgages. Will the buyback mainly optimize an already strong balance sheet or point to fewer attractive growth opportunities ahead?
Compare National Bank of Canada with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−57.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.3% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)33.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)45.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.86× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow20.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.5× · Pricier than median
PEG1.31× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)87· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)57· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)35· sector 40
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Bank of Canada Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NA
Frequently asked questions
Is National Bank of Canada (NA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$93.37 versus a price of C$218.96, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NA?
Our model-based fair value for National Bank of Canada is C$93.37 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$218.96.
What is the quality score of NA?
National Bank of Canada has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Bank of Canada (NA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$93.37 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$80.72, optimistic scenario C$139.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Bank of Canada stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$93.37, about 57% lower versus a price of C$218.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$80.72, optimistic scenario C$139.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
National Bank of Canada reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$14.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does National Bank of Canada pay a dividend?
National Bank of Canada currently shows a dividend yield of 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Bank of Canada (NA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Bank of Canada would have to grow free cash flow by +21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NA use?
Our models discount National Bank of Canada at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Bank of Canada that is +21.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Bank of Canada (NA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Bank of Canada grew +22.6 % a year. The price currently implies +21.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Bank of Canada (NA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Bank of Canada (+21.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.84 %: that much free cash flow National Bank of Canada produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Bank of Canada it is C$93.37 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of C$218.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Bank of Canada stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, NA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$218.96, fair value C$93.37, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$218.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$93.37). For National Bank of Canada the two are C$125.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Bank of Canada worth?
The market values National Bank of Canada at about C$85.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is C$218.96; our models calculate a fair value of C$93.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NA?
Our models span a range for National Bank of Canada: cautious scenario C$80.72, base C$93.37, optimistic C$139.21 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price C$218.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NA?
National Bank of Canada trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$93.37 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.5, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
What is the PEG ratio of NA?
The PEG ratio of National Bank of Canada is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Bank of Canada (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NA from its 52-week high?
National Bank of Canada trades at C$218.96, about 7% below its 52-week high of C$235.32 and 42% above the low of C$153.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$93.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Bank of Canada?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Bank of Canada stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price C$218.96, calculated fair value C$93.37 (−57%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NA calculated?
We run National Bank of Canada through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$93.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. National Bank of Canada itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was C$218.96. Our model-based fair value is C$93.37, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Bank of Canada right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$139.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of National Bank of Canada (NA) come from?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Canada grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.0 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Bank of Canada
How large is the market capitalisation of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The market capitalisation of National Bank of Canada is C$85.4B (≈ $60.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Bank of Canada is 5.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Canada are C$11.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The dividend yield of National Bank of Canada is 2.3% (payout 42.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The net margin of National Bank of Canada is 33.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Bank of Canada is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Bank of Canada is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Bank of Canada (NA)?
The operating margin of National Bank of Canada is 45.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Bank of Canada (NA)?
Revenue at National Bank of Canada is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +47.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Bank of Canada (NA)?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Canada are growing +26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does National Bank of Canada (NA) carry?
The net debt of National Bank of Canada is C$122B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026