Noble Corporation plc (NE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Noble Corporation plc stock $44.96, price $40.87, upside +10.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.60 – $53.23 · fair‑value band $39.85 – $56.20 · the $40.87 price screens below the $44.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Noble Corporation plc operates as an offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry worldwide. It provides contract drilling services through its fleet of mobile offshore drilling units. The company also operates drilling rigs, such as floaters and jackups.
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It serves its fleets in Africa, the Far East Asia, the North Sea, the Oceania, South America, and the United States Gulf of America. Noble Corporation plc was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Noble Corporation plc (NE) currently trades at $40.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.96, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $41.76 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $40.87 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $16.30, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $39.85 (bear) to $56.20 (bull), the price of $40.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Noble Corporation plc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $848M in FY2021, a compound +40.3%/yr. Reported net income was $217M in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 123.8 · P/S ratio 2.30 · EPS (TTM) $0.3300 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 10%, NE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$39.85Fair Value $44.96Bull$56.20
Price $40.87 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.6M and none bought.
SaleRobert W. EiflerPresident & CEO, Director2× since Mar 18, 2026: 150,000 shares, avg. $46.25$6.9MJun 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAl J. HirshbergDirector5,000 shares at $52.62$263,105May 15, 2026
SaleCharles M SledgeDirector2× since Feb 19, 2026: 2,807 shares, avg. $46.43$130,330May 12, 2026
SaleBlake DentonSVP, Marketing & Contracts3× since Feb 17, 2026: 72,589 shares, avg. $46.35$3.4MMay 6, 2026
SaleJoey M KawajaSVP, Operations2× since Feb 13, 2026: 59,725 shares, avg. $47.76$2.9MMay 5, 2026
SaleJennie HowardSVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec.2× since Feb 13, 2026: 8,580 shares, avg. $44.63$382,933Apr 30, 2026
SaleCaroline AltingSVP, Ops. Excellence & Sust2× since Feb 13, 2026: 19,535 shares, avg. $50.79$992,087Apr 28, 2026
SaleRichard B. BarkerEVP and CFO2× since Feb 19, 2026: 170,000 shares, avg. $46.20$7.9MMar 18, 2026
SaleMikkel IpsenSVP, Human Resources3,453 shares at $43.56$150,413Feb 17, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.144
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.4% vs 2.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−15% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.3% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Fresh multi-year floater contracts boost Noble's backlog and marketed utilization in deepwater, yet the business shows only a weak moat amid limited differentiation and high cyclicality.
Main risk: Rivals such as Transocean, Seadrill and Valaris could secure contracts or exert pricing pressure in the floater segment, reducing Noble's utilization and margins on its deepwater rigs.
Bull case: By emphasizing its modern high-spec fleet and operational efficiency Noble could capture additional market share from less capable rivals and extend contract durations despite competitive pressures.
Bear case: If competition intensifies or key customers reduce activity Noble might face prolonged low utilization and margin compression across its floater contracts after the initial capital outlays.
Noble has secured about 1.3 billion dollars in fresh multi-year floater contracts, including a three-year harsh-environment program with Aker BP offshore Norway. These awards lift backlog and marketed utilization while the company sheds jackups to sharpen its deepwater focus. Preparing the rigs for the new work will require sizable one-time capital outlays this year and next. Will the added EBITDA from higher utilization more than offset those upfront costs across the contract terms?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.2% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)123.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.30× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.0× · Pricier than median
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Is Noble Corporation plc (NE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.96 versus a price of $40.87, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NE?
Our model-based fair value for Noble Corporation plc is $44.96 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.87.
What is the quality score of NE?
Noble Corporation plc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.96 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.85, optimistic scenario $56.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Noble Corporation plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.96, about +10% upside versus a price of $40.87 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $39.85, optimistic scenario $56.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Noble Corporation plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Noble Corporation plc pay a dividend?
Noble Corporation plc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Noble Corporation plc (NE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Noble Corporation plc pays a dividend of $2.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 25, 2026, with payment on Dec 17, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.35 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Noble Corporation plc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.8 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NE use?
Our models discount Noble Corporation plc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Noble Corporation plc that is +8.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Noble Corporation plc (NE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Noble Corporation plc grew +27.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Noble Corporation plc (NE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Noble Corporation plc (+8.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.57 %: that much free cash flow Noble Corporation plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Noble Corporation plc it is $44.96 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $40.87. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Noble Corporation plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, NE trades below its calculated fair value: price $40.87, fair value $44.96, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.96). For Noble Corporation plc the two are $4.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Noble Corporation plc worth?
The market values Noble Corporation plc at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $40.87; our models calculate a fair value of $44.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NE?
Our models span a range for Noble Corporation plc: cautious scenario $39.85, base $44.96, optimistic $56.20 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $40.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NE?
Noble Corporation plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 123.8 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.96 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.1 (reported for FY2025: 30.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 13.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Noble Corporation plc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NE from its 52-week high?
Noble Corporation plc trades at $40.87, about 23% below its 52-week high of $53.23 and 51% above the low of $27.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $44.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Noble Corporation plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Transocean Ltd, Valaris Limited, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Noble Corporation plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $40.87, calculated fair value $44.96 (+10%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NE calculated?
We run Noble Corporation plc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $44.96 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Noble Corporation plc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $40.87. Our model-based fair value is $44.96, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Noble Corporation plc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Noble Corporation plc (NE) come from?
Earnings per share at Noble Corporation plc grew +9.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Noble Corporation plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The market capitalisation of Noble Corporation plc is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Noble Corporation plc is 2.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Earnings per share at Noble Corporation plc are $0.3300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 123.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The dividend yield of Noble Corporation plc is 4.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The net margin of Noble Corporation plc is 1.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Noble Corporation plc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Noble Corporation plc is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
The operating margin of Noble Corporation plc is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Revenue at Noble Corporation plc is growing −9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Noble Corporation plc (NE)?
Earnings per share at Noble Corporation plc are growing +11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Noble Corporation plc (NE) carry?
The net debt of Noble Corporation plc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026