Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Newlake Capital Partners Inc stock $20.87, price $13.87, upside +50.5%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.47 – $20.44 · fair‑value band $13.98 – $27.31 · the $13.87 price screens below the $20.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. is an internally-managed real estate investment trust that provides real estate capital to state-licensed cannabis operators through sale-leaseback transactions and third-party purchases and funding for build-to-suit projects.
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NewLake owns a portfolio of 34 properties, including 15 cultivation facilities and 19 dispensaries, primarily leased to single tenants under triple-net lease agreements. NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. was formed and incorporated on April 9, 2019 in Maryland, USA.
Stock analysis
Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP) currently trades at $13.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.87, implying the stock looks roughly 34% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $36.89 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the $13.87 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $14.35, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.98 (bear) to $27.31 (bull), the price of $13.87 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Newlake Capital Partners Inc reported revenue of $51.1M in FY2025 versus $28.2M in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $26.3M in FY2025, compounding +22.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $285M Micro · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 5.78 · EPS (TTM) $1.18 · Dividend yield 12.4% · Net margin 49.4% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 50%, NLCP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.98Fair Value $20.87Bull$27.31
Price $13.87 · Upside +50.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $5,016, on May 13, 2026.
BuyAnthony ConiglioPresident and CEO, Director350 shares at $14.33$5,016May 13, 2026
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+31.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 53%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.4% a year for the price and −1.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Newlake Capital Partners Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Specialty · 29 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+50.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)49.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)50.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)12.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Newlake Capital Partners Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NLCP
Frequently asked questions
Is Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.87 versus a price of $13.87, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NLCP?
Our model-based fair value for Newlake Capital Partners Inc is $20.87 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.87.
What is the quality score of NLCP?
Newlake Capital Partners Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.87 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $27.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Newlake Capital Partners Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.87, about +50% upside versus a price of $13.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $27.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Newlake Capital Partners Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $49.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Newlake Capital Partners Inc pay a dividend?
Newlake Capital Partners Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 12.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Newlake Capital Partners Inc pays a dividend of $1.72 per share a year, a dividend yield of 12.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 146% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.20 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Newlake Capital Partners Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NLCP use?
Our models discount Newlake Capital Partners Inc at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Newlake Capital Partners Inc that is -8.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Newlake Capital Partners Inc grew +34.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Newlake Capital Partners Inc (-8.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.90 %: that much free cash flow Newlake Capital Partners Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Newlake Capital Partners Inc it is $20.87 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $13.87. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Newlake Capital Partners Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NLCP trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.87, fair value $20.87, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NLCP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.87). For Newlake Capital Partners Inc the two are $7.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Newlake Capital Partners Inc worth?
The market values Newlake Capital Partners Inc at about $285M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $13.87; our models calculate a fair value of $20.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NLCP?
Our models span a range for Newlake Capital Partners Inc: cautious scenario $13.98, base $20.87, optimistic $27.31 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $13.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NLCP?
Newlake Capital Partners Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.87 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 13.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Newlake Capital Partners Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NLCP from its 52-week high?
Newlake Capital Partners Inc trades at $13.87, about 14% below its 52-week high of $16.10 and 20% above the low of $11.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Newlake Capital Partners Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Equinix, Inc, American Tower Corporation, Digital Realty Trust, Inc, Crown Castle Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Newlake Capital Partners Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $13.87, calculated fair value $20.87 (+50%), Quality Score 75/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NLCP calculated?
We run Newlake Capital Partners Inc through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $20.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Newlake Capital Partners Inc currently trades 34% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $13.87. Our model-based fair value is $20.87, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Newlake Capital Partners Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($13.98 to $27.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Newlake Capital Partners Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The market capitalisation of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is $285M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is 5.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Earnings per share at Newlake Capital Partners Inc are $1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The dividend yield of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is 12.4% (payout 146%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The net margin of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is 49.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
The operating margin of Newlake Capital Partners Inc is 50.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Revenue at Newlake Capital Partners Inc is growing −6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Newlake Capital Partners Inc (NLCP)?
Earnings per share at Newlake Capital Partners Inc are growing −19.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026