National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Securities Depository Limited stock ₹243, price ₹764, that is 68.1% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range ₹699.80 – ₹1,333 · fair‑value band ₹137.64 – ₹308.54 · the ₹764.15 price screens above the ₹243.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) currently trades at ₹764.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹243.47, 68% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹468.08 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the ₹764.15 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹123.17, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹137.64 (bear) to ₹308.54 (bull), the price of ₹764.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
National Securities Depository Limited reported revenue of ₹15.3B in FY2026 versus ₹7.6B in FY2022, a compound +19.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.8B in FY2026, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹153B (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 39.0 · P/S ratio 8.16 · EPS (TTM) ₹19.57 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 20.7% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −68%, NSDL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹137.64Fair Value ₹243.47Bull₹308.54
Price ₹764.15 · Downside -68.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹9.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 25%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.4% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Infrastructure scale and cash conversion support a durable advantage in the depository business, yet limited signals on innovation and ownership alignment leave growth prospects constrained.
Main risk: Regulatory caps on depository fees threaten to limit revenue growth and compress margins in the core business.
NSDL’s core depository business still draws steady fees from India’s growing pool of demat accounts and equity participation, yet operating revenue growth has slowed while costs rise. The post-listing rally priced in faster expansion that has not fully materialised, triggering the correction from recent highs. Will higher market volumes lift the fee base enough to restore prior margins, or will the traditional model keep facing margin pressure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−68.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Above median
Return on assets9.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)24.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)61.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹243.47 versus a price of ₹764.15, about 68% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NSDL?
Our model-based fair value for National Securities Depository Limited is ₹243.47 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹764.15.
What is the quality score of NSDL?
National Securities Depository Limited has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹243.47 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹137.64, optimistic scenario ₹308.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Securities Depository Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹243.47, about 68% lower versus a price of ₹764.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹137.64, optimistic scenario ₹308.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
National Securities Depository Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹18.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does National Securities Depository Limited pay a dividend?
National Securities Depository Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National Securities Depository Limited pays a dividend of ₹4.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 11, 2026. The payout ratio is 20.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 7.23 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Securities Depository Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +24.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +19.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSDL use?
Our models discount National Securities Depository Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Securities Depository Limited that is +24.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at National Securities Depository Limited grew +19.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +24.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.78 %: that much free cash flow National Securities Depository Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Securities Depository Limited it is ₹243.47 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ₹764.15. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is National Securities Depository Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NSDL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹764.15, fair value ₹243.47, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹764.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹243.47). For National Securities Depository Limited the two are ₹520.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Securities Depository Limited worth?
The market values National Securities Depository Limited at about ₹153B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ₹764.15; our models calculate a fair value of ₹243.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSDL?
Our models span a range for National Securities Depository Limited: cautious scenario ₹137.64, base ₹243.47, optimistic ₹308.54 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ₹764.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NSDL?
National Securities Depository Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹243.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.5, P/S 8.2, EV/EBITDA 25.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Securities Depository Limited (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 17.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NSDL from its 52-week high?
National Securities Depository Limited trades at ₹764.15, about 33% below its 52-week high of ₹1,148 and 9% above the low of ₹699.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹243.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Securities Depository Limited?
From the same area (Financials) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Securities Depository Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ₹764.15, calculated fair value ₹243.47 (−68%), Quality Score 66/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSDL calculated?
We run National Securities Depository Limited through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ₹243.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. National Securities Depository Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ₹764.15. Our model-based fair value is ₹243.47, about 68% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Securities Depository Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹308.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹137.64 to ₹308.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of National Securities Depository Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The market capitalisation of National Securities Depository Limited is ₹153B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Securities Depository Limited is 8.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
Earnings per share at National Securities Depository Limited are ₹19.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The dividend yield of National Securities Depository Limited is 0.5% (payout 20.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The net margin of National Securities Depository Limited is 20.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Securities Depository Limited is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Securities Depository Limited is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
The operating margin of National Securities Depository Limited is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
Revenue at National Securities Depository Limited is growing +61.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL)?
Earnings per share at National Securities Depository Limited are growing +9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026