Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orca Energy Group Inc stock $0.45, price $0.52, that is 13.5% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Orca Energy Group Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production, and supply of petroleum and natural gas to the power and industrial sectors in Tanzania. Its principal asset is the Songo Songo block comprising an area of approximately 41,630 acres located to the south of Dar Es Salaam.
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The company was formerly known as Orca Exploration Group Inc. and changed its name to Orca Energy Group Inc. in July 2020. Orca Energy Group Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Road Town, British Virgin Islands.
Stock analysis
Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF) currently trades at $0.5200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4500, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.25 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $0.5200 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0463, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4012 (bear) to $0.4921 (bull), the price of $0.5200 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orca Energy Group Inc reported revenue of $87.2M in FY2025 versus $86.0M in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.8M in FY2025, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.5M Micro · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6400 · Net margin −14.3% · Return on equity −25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.8% · Revenue (TTM) $89.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 82% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −13%, ORXGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.4012Fair Value $0.4500Bull$0.4921
Price $0.5200 · Downside -13.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −11.1% / 23.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 45%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−13.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−14.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)52.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orca Energy Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORXGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4500 versus a price of $0.5200, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORXGF?
Our model-based fair value for Orca Energy Group Inc is $0.4500 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5200.
What is the quality score of ORXGF?
Orca Energy Group Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4500 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4012, optimistic scenario $0.4921. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orca Energy Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4500, about 13% lower versus a price of $0.5200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4012, optimistic scenario $0.4921. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Orca Energy Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $89.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orca Energy Group Inc it is $0.4500 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $0.5200. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Orca Energy Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ORXGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.5200, fair value $0.4500, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORXGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4500). For Orca Energy Group Inc the two are $0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orca Energy Group Inc worth?
The market values Orca Energy Group Inc at about $10.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $0.5200; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORXGF?
Our models span a range for Orca Energy Group Inc: cautious scenario $0.4012, base $0.4500, optimistic $0.4921 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $0.5200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orca Energy Group Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −25.7%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORXGF from its 52-week high?
Orca Energy Group Inc trades at $0.5200, about 82% below its 52-week high of $2.83 and 51% above the low of $0.3454 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orca Energy Group Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orca Energy Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $0.5200, calculated fair value $0.4500 (−13%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORXGF calculated?
We run Orca Energy Group Inc through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.4500 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Orca Energy Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $0.5200. Our model-based fair value is $0.4500, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orca Energy Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4921). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Orca Energy Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
The market capitalisation of Orca Energy Group Inc is $10.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orca Energy Group Inc is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Earnings per share at Orca Energy Group Inc are $−0.6400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
The net margin of Orca Energy Group Inc is −14.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orca Energy Group Inc is −25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orca Energy Group Inc is 19.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
The operating margin of Orca Energy Group Inc is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Revenue at Orca Energy Group Inc is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF)?
Earnings per share at Orca Energy Group Inc are growing +33.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Orca Energy Group Inc is $73.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Orca Energy Group Inc (ORXGF) hold?
Orca Energy Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $87.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 10, 2026