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Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc stock $12.44, price $19.30, that is 35.5% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

OS Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc logo Some data Nov 9, 2026

Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc

OTTW · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 36% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 66/100
Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin (TTM)
2.3% dividend yield · Low payout
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +20%, profit +100%.
Moderate moat 59/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $12.44 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.1 %/yr in USD)
Trails peers (3/13)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$19.30 $7.56 Fair Value $12.44 Nov 2018 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.56 – $19.30 · fair‑value band $9.33 – $15.54 · the $19.30 price screens above the $12.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for OSB Community Bank, a savings bank that provides various financial services to individual and corporate customers in Illinois.

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The company provides saving, checking, money market, and interest-bearing accounts, as well as certificate of deposit; and business checking and municipal accounts.

It offers business loans, including business and investor real estate loans, lines of credit, equipment/machinery/business vehicle term loans; first time homebuyer, auto, student, construction, and mortgage loans; and home equity lines of credit.

In addition, the company provides cash management solutions, such as remote deposit capture, automated clearing house/payroll direct deposit, and merchant services; commercial leasing, business credit cards; digital banking; and additional services comprising notary, lamination, night depository, document faxing, money gift envelopes, safe deposit boxes, and coin counting.

The company was formerly known as Ottawa Savings Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. in October 2016. The company was founded in 1871 and is based in Ottawa, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW) currently trades at $19.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.44, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $13.89 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $19.30 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.01, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $9.33 (bear) to $15.54 (bull), the price of $19.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $11.3M in FY2025 versus $13.3M in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7M in FY2025, compounding −12.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $44.3M Micro · P/E ratio 19.7 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.9800 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 18.1% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −36%, OTTW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.33 Fair Value $12.44 Bull $15.54
Price $19.30 · Downside -35.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4631 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $13.84 $13.89 $14.49 76
Gordon GGM $4.25 $6.00 $7.85 69
DDM Multi-Stage $4.25 $6.02 $8.19 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.25 $6.00 $7.85 69
DDM Multi-Stage $4.25 $6.02 $8.19 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $7.12 $9.50 $11.87 63
P/B Multiple $11.53 $15.37 $19.21 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.69 $11.64 $17.37 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $13.84 $13.89 $14.49 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 19
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 99
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 95
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 73
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 85
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.7% vs 6.2%, slowing
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

OTTW screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −35.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 18.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 35.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.41× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 19.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.49× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 13.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)99 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)23 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)46 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs OTTW
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs OTTW
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs OTTW
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs OTTW
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs OTTW
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs OTTW
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs OTTW
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs OTTW
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs OTTW
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs OTTW

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Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTTW

Frequently asked questions

Is Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.44 versus a price of $19.30, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OTTW?
Our model-based fair value for Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is $12.44 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.30.
What is the quality score of OTTW?
Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.44 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.33, optimistic scenario $15.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.44, about 36% lower versus a price of $19.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.33, optimistic scenario $15.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc pays a dividend of $0.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2017. The payout ratio is 44.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc it is $12.44 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $19.30. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, OTTW trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.30, fair value $12.44, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTTW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.44). For Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc the two are $6.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc at about $44.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $19.30; our models calculate a fair value of $12.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTTW?
Our models span a range for Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $9.33, base $12.44, optimistic $15.54 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $19.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTTW?
Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.44 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 21.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTTW from its 52-week high?
Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc trades at $19.30, at its 52-week high of $19.30 and 41% above the low of $13.71 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $19.30, calculated fair value $12.44 (−36%), Quality Score 66/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTTW calculated?
We run Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $19.30. Our model-based fair value is $12.44, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The market capitalisation of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is $44.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is 3.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Earnings per share at Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc are $0.9800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The dividend yield of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is 2.3% (payout 44.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The net margin of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is 18.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
The operating margin of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is 35.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Revenue at Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is growing +19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW)?
Earnings per share at Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW) generate?
The free cash flow of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is $3.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc (OTTW) carry?
The net debt of Ottawa Savings Bancorp Inc is $11.1M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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