Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock $33.18, price $57.33, that is 42.1% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.41 – $71.14 · fair‑value band $22.59 – $41.47 · the $57.33 price screens above the $33.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Occidental Petroleum in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Occidental Petroleum is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing.
Show moreShow less
The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities.
The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) currently trades at $57.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.18, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $34.68 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $57.33 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $15.62, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.59 (bear) to $41.47 (bull), the price of $57.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $21.6B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $57.7B Large · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) $3.53 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −42%, OXY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.59Fair Value $33.18Bull$41.47
Price $57.33 · Downside -42.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $249,853, on Jun 23, 2026.
BuyRichard A. JacksonPresident and CEO, Director4,770 shares at $52.38$249,853Jun 23, 2026
BuyWilliam R KlesseDirector5,000 shares at $38.98$194,900Dec 16, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −0.4% / 11.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business shows moderate operational signals in oil and gas exploration as its main strength yet lacks any durable moat while facing commodity price dependence and elevated leverage as its core weakness.
Main risk: Lawsuits and regulatory actions over environmental compliance or climate issues could delay permits, raise remediation costs or limit drilling on federal lands and hit production volumes and margins.
Bull case: The company could leverage its AI initiatives in operations and carbon management to lower costs, secure regulatory approvals more easily and expand into lower-carbon opportunities that offset any demand pressure on traditional oil output.
Bear case: Mounting environmental litigation and stricter permitting rules combined with debt constraints could curtail new projects, raise operating expenses substantially and shrink the viable asset base over time.
Occidental keeps directing free cash flow toward debt reduction even as it holds a large unhedged oil position for next year and beyond. This setup creates leverage to higher crude prices but also delays broader capital returns until the balance sheet improves further. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the upside from oil outweigh the constraint on shareholder distributions?
Compare Occidental Petroleum Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−42.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)30.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)45.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)53.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.60× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.41× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow14.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.13× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 76
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.18 versus a price of $57.33, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OXY?
Our model-based fair value for Occidental Petroleum Corporation is $33.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.33.
What is the quality score of OXY?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.59, optimistic scenario $41.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.18, about 42% lower versus a price of $57.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.59, optimistic scenario $41.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Occidental Petroleum Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OXY use?
Our models discount Occidental Petroleum Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Occidental Petroleum Corporation that is +4.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Occidental Petroleum Corporation grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +4.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Occidental Petroleum Corporation (+4.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.07 %: that much free cash flow Occidental Petroleum Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Occidental Petroleum Corporation it is $33.18 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $57.33. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, OXY trades above its calculated fair value: price $57.33, fair value $33.18, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OXY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.18). For Occidental Petroleum Corporation the two are $24.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Occidental Petroleum Corporation worth?
The market values Occidental Petroleum Corporation at about $57.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $57.33; our models calculate a fair value of $33.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OXY?
Our models span a range for Occidental Petroleum Corporation: cautious scenario $22.59, base $33.18, optimistic $41.47 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $57.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OXY?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.18 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 25.9 (reported for FY2025: 24.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 14.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
What is the PEG ratio of OXY?
The PEG ratio of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 1.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OXY from its 52-week high?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation trades at $57.33, about 13% below its 52-week high of $65.63 and 49% above the low of $38.38 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Occidental Petroleum Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $57.33, calculated fair value $33.18 (−42%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OXY calculated?
We run Occidental Petroleum Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Occidental Petroleum Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $57.33. Our model-based fair value is $33.18, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Occidental Petroleum Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($41.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($22.59 to $41.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Occidental Petroleum Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The market capitalisation of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is $57.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 1.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Earnings per share at Occidental Petroleum Corporation are $3.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The dividend yield of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 1.7% (payout 30.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 28.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The net margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 11.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
The operating margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is 45.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Revenue at Occidental Petroleum Corporation is growing +53.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Earnings per share at Occidental Petroleum Corporation are growing +965% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) carry?
The net debt of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is $22.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Occidental Petroleum Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts Occidental Petroleum Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026