Pennon Group Plc (PNN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pennon Group Plc stock £2.45, price £3.42, that is 28.5% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £3.12 – £7.07 · fair‑value band £1.84 – £3.17 · the £3.42 price screens above the £2.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Pennon Group Plc provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, Water and Non-Household Retail. Pennon Group Plc was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Exeter, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Pennon Group Plc (PNN) currently trades at £3.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.45, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of £4.33 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the £3.42 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £1.21, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £1.84 (bear) to £3.17 (bull), the price of £3.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pennon Group Plc reported revenue of £1.3B in FY2026 versus £792M in FY2022, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was £91.5M in FY2026, compounding +56.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £1.8B Mid · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) £0.1700 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −28%, PNN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£1.84Fair Value £2.45Bull£3.17
Price £3.42 · Downside -28.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income£2.17£2.28£2.4776
EPVn/an/a£0.520068
ROIC Compoundern/an/a£0.520068
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd£1.19£3.82£5.0964
Lynch FV£0.8400£1.21£1.5761
PEG = 1.0£0.8400£1.21£1.5757
EPVn/an/a£0.520068
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM£2.33£4.78£7.4966
DDM Multi-Stage£2.33£3.88£5.0366
Multiples
P/E Multiple£2.37£3.16£3.9563
P/S Multiple£2.24£2.98£3.7358
P/B Multiple£3.00£4.01£5.0155
EV/EBITn/a£0.5800>£2.3261
EV/EBITDAn/a£1.22£3.6862
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)£1.11£1.49£2.2354
Economic Profit
Residual Income£2.17£2.28£2.4776
ROIC Compoundern/an/a£0.520068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E£2.01£2.88£3.7467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.2% vs −9.9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The regulated utility draws strength from infrastructure stability but is constrained by weak profitability, high leverage and negative free cash flow.
Main risk: The biggest risk is that the higher asset base fails to generate enough returns to offset dilution and ongoing performance pressures, hitting profitability.
Pennon’s new CEO is driving a major operational reset with nearly a billion pounds of extra capital spending over the current regulatory period to improve asset health and push regulatory capital value growth above 40 percent. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued as the company funds this through a rights issue and rebased dividend. Will the higher asset base generate enough returns to offset dilution and ongoing performance pressures, or will the operational challenges persist?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−28.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)25.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.1× · Pricier than median
P/B1.27× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.39× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG8.20× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pennon Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNN
Frequently asked questions
Is Pennon Group Plc (PNN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.45 versus a price of £3.42, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PNN?
Our model-based fair value for Pennon Group Plc is £2.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.42.
What is the quality score of PNN?
Pennon Group Plc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.84, optimistic scenario £3.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pennon Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.45, about 28% lower versus a price of £3.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.84, optimistic scenario £3.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Pennon Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Pennon Group Plc pay a dividend?
Pennon Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 7.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Pennon Group Plc (PNN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Pennon Group Plc pays a dividend of £0.26 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. The payout ratio is 153% of earnings. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pennon Group Plc it is £2.45 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of £3.42. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pennon Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, PNN trades above its calculated fair value: price £3.42, fair value £2.45, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.45). For Pennon Group Plc the two are £0.9740 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pennon Group Plc worth?
The market values Pennon Group Plc at about £1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is £3.42; our models calculate a fair value of £2.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNN?
Our models span a range for Pennon Group Plc: cautious scenario £1.84, base £2.45, optimistic £3.17 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price £3.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PNN?
Pennon Group Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.2, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PNN?
The PEG ratio of Pennon Group Plc is 8.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pennon Group Plc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 2.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNN from its 52-week high?
Pennon Group Plc trades at £3.42, about 34% below its 52-week high of £5.21 and 7% above the low of £3.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pennon Group Plc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pennon Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price £3.42, calculated fair value £2.45 (−28%), Quality Score 30/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNN calculated?
We run Pennon Group Plc through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £2.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Pennon Group Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £3.42. Our model-based fair value is £2.45, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pennon Group Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£3.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Pennon Group Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The market capitalisation of Pennon Group Plc is £1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pennon Group Plc is 1.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Earnings per share at Pennon Group Plc are £0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The dividend yield of Pennon Group Plc is 7.6% (payout 153%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The net margin of Pennon Group Plc is 7.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pennon Group Plc is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pennon Group Plc is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
The operating margin of Pennon Group Plc is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Revenue at Pennon Group Plc is growing +21.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pennon Group Plc (PNN)?
Earnings per share at Pennon Group Plc are growing −92.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pennon Group Plc (PNN) generate?
The free cash flow of Pennon Group Plc is −£253M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pennon Group Plc (PNN) carry?
The net debt of Pennon Group Plc is £4.5B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026