Transocean Ltd (RIG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transocean Ltd stock $4.00, price $5.24, that is 23.6% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.13 – $8.80 · fair‑value band $2.58 – $5.64 · the $5.24 price screens above the $4.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells in Switzerland and internationally. The company contracts mobile offshore drilling rigs, related equipment, and work crews to drill oil and gas wells.
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It also operates a fleet of mobile offshore drilling units, consisting of ultra-deepwater floaters and harsh environment semisubmersibles. It serves integrated energy companies and their affiliates, government-owned or government-controlled energy companies, and other independent energy companies.
Transocean Ltd. was founded in 1926 and is based in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Transocean Ltd (RIG) currently trades at $5.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.00, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.99 per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the $5.24 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.7300, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.58 (bear) to $5.64 (bull), the price of $5.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Transocean Ltd reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.9B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.3B Mid · P/E ex one-offs 131.0 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) $−1.60 · Net margin −40.2% · Return on equity −18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −24%, RIG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.58Fair Value $4.00Bull$5.64
Price $5.24 · Downside -23.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$5.37$8.71$12.9180
Growth DCF$5.53$8.56$12.2178
5Y EBITDA Exit$2.11$4.12$6.2873
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$5.37$8.71$12.9180
5Y Revenue Exit$1.61$3.23$5.1270
5Y EBITDA Exit$2.11$4.12$6.2873
10Y Revenue Exit$3.03$4.71$6.6367
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.39$5.26$7.4168
Multiples
EV/EBITDAn/a$1.37$2.7562
EV/Revenuen/a$0.0900>$0.360050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.63$4.86$7.2654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$5.53$8.56$12.2178
Rev-Margin DCF$1.61$3.41$5.4270
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $173,250, on Jul 2, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $608,970.
BuyChad C DeatonDirector35,000 shares at $4.95$173,250Jul 2, 2026
SaleBrady K LongEVP & Chief Legal Officer2× since Jan 26, 2026: 197,119 shares, avg. $6.02$1.2MMay 21, 2026
SaleRoderick James MackenzieEVP, Chief Commercial Officer2× since Dec 3, 2025: 113,370 shares, avg. $5.78$655,233Mar 4, 2026
SaleKeelan AdamsonPRESIDENT AND CEO, Director2× since Dec 4, 2025: 147,970 shares, avg. $4.78$706,632Jan 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJeremy D ThigpenExecutive Chair, Director500,000 shares at $4.32$2.2MNov 26, 2025
BuyPerestroikaDirector1,500,000 shares at $4.02$6.0MNov 24, 2025
BuyFrederik Wilhelm MohnDirector1,500,000 shares at $4.02$6.0MNov 24, 2025
BuyPerestroika (Cyprus) LtdDirector1,500,000 shares at $4.02$6.0MNov 24, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.0% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−23.3% (2019) → 10.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.1% a year for the price and −2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat in a highly cyclical offshore drilling sector remains the core weakness, while recent contract additions provide the main source of earnings visibility amid weak profitability metrics.
Main risk: Substantial debt could restrict access to future financing and create competitive disadvantages for its offshore drilling operations.
Bull case: By winning diversified long-term contracts and applying efficiency gains to reduce debt, Transocean could improve liquidity and sustain fleet utilization across cycles.
Bear case: If key customers cut spending or debt markets tighten further, Transocean might struggle with refinancing, resulting in more idle rigs and reduced operational scale.
Transocean recently added roughly 550 million dollars in new firm backlog from ultra-deepwater contracts in the US Gulf that start in 2027 and run straight from existing work. Our models still see the shares as overvalued. Will the extended visibility into 2027 prove enough to offset ongoing debt pressures and the sector's cyclical swings, or will idle capacity and cost overruns dominate again?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−18.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−40.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.78× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.53× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transocean Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RIG
Frequently asked questions
Is Transocean Ltd (RIG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.00 versus a price of $5.24, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RIG?
Our model-based fair value for Transocean Ltd is $4.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.24.
What is the quality score of RIG?
Transocean Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.00 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $5.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transocean Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.00, about 24% lower versus a price of $5.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $5.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
Transocean Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transocean Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RIG use?
Our models discount Transocean Ltd at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transocean Ltd that is +9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transocean Ltd (RIG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transocean Ltd grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transocean Ltd (RIG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transocean Ltd (+9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.94 %: that much free cash flow Transocean Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transocean Ltd it is $4.00 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $5.24. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Transocean Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, RIG trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.24, fair value $4.00, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.00). For Transocean Ltd the two are $1.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transocean Ltd worth?
The market values Transocean Ltd at about $6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $5.24; our models calculate a fair value of $4.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIG?
Our models span a range for Transocean Ltd: cautious scenario $2.58, base $4.00, optimistic $5.64 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $5.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RIG?
The PEG ratio of Transocean Ltd is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transocean Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −18.7%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIG from its 52-week high?
Transocean Ltd trades at $5.24, about 31% below its 52-week high of $7.58 and 36% above the low of $3.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transocean Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Valaris Limited, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transocean Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $5.24, calculated fair value $4.00 (−24%), Quality Score 41/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIG calculated?
We run Transocean Ltd through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Transocean Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.24. Our model-based fair value is $4.00, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transocean Ltd right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($2.58 to $5.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Transocean Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The market capitalisation of Transocean Ltd is $6.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Transocean Ltd (RIG) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Transocean Ltd is 131.0 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transocean Ltd is 1.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
Earnings per share at Transocean Ltd are $−1.60. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The net margin of Transocean Ltd is −40.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transocean Ltd is −18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transocean Ltd is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
The operating margin of Transocean Ltd is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transocean Ltd (RIG)?
Revenue at Transocean Ltd is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Transocean Ltd (RIG) carry?
The net debt of Transocean Ltd is $4.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026