Shell plc (SHEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shell plc stock £32.97, price £37.84, that is 12.9% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £11.29 – £40.38 · fair‑value band £22.00 – £41.60 · the £37.84 price screens above the £32.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions.
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The company explores for and extracts natural gas to produce liquefied natural gas or convert it into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products; explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and operates marketing and transportation of oil, gas, and liquids, supported by the infrastructure required to deliver them to market or to process them within Shell's chemical manufacturing plants and refineries.
It is also involved in marketing, which includes mobility, lubricants, and sectors focused on decarbonization; operates a retail network, including electric vehicle charging, convenience retail, and the wholesale commercial fuels business for transport and industry; sells products for road transport and machinery in manufacturing, mining, power generation, agriculture, and construction; and provides low-carbon energy solutions, such as biofuels, to a broad range of commercial customers, including those in the aviation, marine, and agriculture sectors.
In addition, the company offers chemicals and products, including chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries that turn crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of oil products, which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial, and transport use; and operates a pipeline business, trading, and optimization of crude oil, oil products, and petrochemicals.
The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Shell plc (SHEL) currently trades at £37.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £32.97, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £41.02 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the £37.84 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £11.04, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £22.00 (bear) to £41.60 (bull), the price of £37.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Shell plc reported revenue of $272B in FY2025 versus $262B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $18.2B in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £213B Mega · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) £4.21 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 17.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −13%, SHEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£22.00Fair Value £32.97Bull£41.60
Price £37.84 · Downside -12.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£2.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23.0% vs 0.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.9% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate scale benefits in integrated energy represent the main strength, while commodity price exposure and limited differentiation signals form the key weakness limiting durability.
Main risk: Ongoing climate lawsuits such as those from Milieudefensie in the Netherlands could force reductions in new oil and gas developments or impose stricter emission limits, hitting upstream production and the integrated model.
Bull case: Shell could leverage its LNG leadership and trading expertise to supply growing power demand from data centres while navigating legal pressures through targeted low-carbon investments.
Bear case: If climate litigation escalates and lower-cost rivals expand aggressively, Shell might face constrained project approvals, higher compliance costs and reduced upstream volumes eroding its integrated cash flows.
Shell is scaling back from long-running assets like the UK North Sea while reallocating capital toward electricity projects aimed at AI data centre demand. This creates tension between its established hydrocarbons operations and the push into power infrastructure. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the new power focus deliver stronger returns than continued high-grading of the legacy portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.4% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shell plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Shell plc (SHEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £32.97 versus a price of £37.84, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHEL?
Our model-based fair value for Shell plc is £32.97 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £37.84.
What is the quality score of SHEL?
Shell plc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shell plc (SHEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £32.97 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £22.00, optimistic scenario £41.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shell plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £32.97, about 13% lower versus a price of £37.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £22.00, optimistic scenario £41.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shell plc (SHEL)?
Shell plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $321B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shell plc pay a dividend?
Shell plc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shell plc (SHEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shell plc would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.6 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHEL use?
Our models discount Shell plc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shell plc that is +1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shell plc (SHEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shell plc grew +8.6 % a year. The price currently implies +1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shell plc (SHEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shell plc (+1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.76 %: that much free cash flow Shell plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shell plc (SHEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shell plc it is £32.97 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of £37.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shell plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SHEL trades above its calculated fair value: price £37.84, fair value £32.97, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£37.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£32.97). For Shell plc the two are £4.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shell plc worth?
The market values Shell plc at about £213B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is £37.84; our models calculate a fair value of £32.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHEL?
Our models span a range for Shell plc: cautious scenario £22.00, base £32.97, optimistic £41.60 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price £37.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHEL?
Shell plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £32.97 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 4.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SHEL?
The PEG ratio of Shell plc is 1.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shell plc (SHEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shell plc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 17.4%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHEL from its 52-week high?
Shell plc trades at £37.84, about 6% below its 52-week high of £40.38 and 52% above the low of £24.93 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £32.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shell plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shell plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price £37.84, calculated fair value £32.97 (−13%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHEL calculated?
We run Shell plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £32.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Shell plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was £37.84. Our model-based fair value is £32.97, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shell plc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£22.00 to £41.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Shell plc (SHEL) come from?
Earnings per share at Shell plc grew −9.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −16.5 %, EBIT margin +13.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shell plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The market capitalisation of Shell plc is £213B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shell plc is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shell plc (SHEL)?
Earnings per share at Shell plc are £4.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The dividend yield of Shell plc is 2.8% (payout 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The net margin of Shell plc is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shell plc is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shell plc (SHEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shell plc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shell plc (SHEL)?
The operating margin of Shell plc is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shell plc (SHEL)?
Revenue at Shell plc is growing +36.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shell plc (SHEL)?
Earnings per share at Shell plc are growing +137% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shell plc (SHEL) carry?
The net debt of Shell plc is $74.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026