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Vital Metals Ltd (VML) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vital Metals Ltd stock A$0.06, price A$0.07, that is 15.2% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU000000VML1

VM Vital Metals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Vital Metals Ltd

VML · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +83.2 %/yr in AUD)
Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
Revenue last quarter 85% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0619 · Overvalued
Quality 27/100
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate

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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$3.55 A$0.0500 Fair Value A$0.0619 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$3.55 · fair‑value band A$0.0513 – A$0.0726 · the A$0.0730 price screens above the A$0.0619 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Vital Metals Limited engages in mineral exploration and development in Canada. The company explores for rare earth deposits. It owns 100% interest in the Nechalacho project located in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Vital Metals Ltd (VML) currently trades at A$0.0730, while our estimate is A$0.0619, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.0513 (bear) to A$0.0726 (bull), the price of A$0.0730 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Vital Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$855K in FY2025 versus A$309K in FY2021, a compound +28.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$16.6M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$17.9M (≈ $12.3M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0900 · Return on equity −31.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2,792% · Revenue growth (YoY) −84.8% · Free cash flow −A$4.3M · Net cash A$2.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −15%, VML screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.0513 Fair Value A$0.0619 Bull A$0.0726
Price A$0.0730 · Downside -15.2%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 56
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 37
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 5
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 50
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−67.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+83.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +166.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−11,254.2% (2020) → −398.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VML screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −15.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −32.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −84.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs VML
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 57.00 SAR 64.24 SAR +13% vs VML
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.25 ¥30.98 +10% vs VML
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs VML
Boliden AB BOL kr 515.20 kr 464.45 −10% vs VML
BHP Group BHP A$60.39 A$47.47 −21% vs VML
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.69 ¥25.57 −22% vs VML
Korea Zinc Company 010130 967,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −33% vs VML
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.71 ¥6.82 −50% vs VML
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥40.90 ¥4.44 −89% vs VML

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Vital Metals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vital Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VML

Frequently asked questions

Is Vital Metals Ltd (VML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.0619 versus a price of A$0.0730, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VML?
Our estimate for Vital Metals Ltd is A$0.0619 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0730.
What is the quality score of VML?
Vital Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.0619 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.0513, optimistic scenario A$0.0726. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Vital Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.0619, about 15% lower versus a price of A$0.0730 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0513, optimistic scenario A$0.0726. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vital Metals Ltd it is A$0.0619 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.0730.
Is Vital Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, VML trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0730, fair value A$0.0619, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0730); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0619). For Vital Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0111 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vital Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Vital Metals Ltd at about A$17.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0730; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0619 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VML?
Our models span a range for Vital Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0513, base A$0.0619, optimistic A$0.0726 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.0730). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vital Metals Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −31.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VML from its 52-week high?
Vital Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0730, about 71% below its 52-week high of A$0.2550 and at the low of A$0.0730 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0619 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vital Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vital Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.0730, calculated fair value A$0.0619 (−15%), Quality Score 27/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Vital Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$0.0730. Our estimate is A$0.0619, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vital Metals Ltd right now?
Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Vital Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The market capitalisation of Vital Metals Ltd is A$17.9M (≈ $12.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Earnings per share at Vital Metals Ltd are A$−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vital Metals Ltd is −31.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vital Metals Ltd is −7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The operating margin of Vital Metals Ltd is −2,792% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Revenue at Vital Metals Ltd is growing −84.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +110%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vital Metals Ltd (VML) generate?
The free cash flow of Vital Metals Ltd is −A$4.3M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vital Metals Ltd (VML) hold?
Vital Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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