Vital Metals Ltd (VML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vital Metals Ltd A$0.15, price A$0.10, upside +52.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$3.70 · fair‑value band A$0.1098 – A$0.2274 · the A$0.0980 price screens below the A$0.1490 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Vital Metals Limited engages in mineral exploration and development in Canada. The company explores for rare earth deposits. It owns 100% interest in the Nechalacho project located in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Vital Metals Ltd (VML) currently trades at A$0.0980, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1490, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.1098 (bear) to A$0.2274 (bull), the price of A$0.0980 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vital Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$855K in FY2025 versus A$309K in FY2021, a compound +28.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$3.3M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 52%, VML screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1098Fair Value A$0.1490Bull A$0.2274
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−67.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+83.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +166.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−11,254.2% (2020) → −398.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 459 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/6 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside+52% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−98% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vital Metals Ltd (VML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1490 versus a price of A$0.0980, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VML?
Our model-based fair value for Vital Metals Ltd is A$0.1490 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0980.
What is the quality score of VML?
Vital Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1490 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1098, optimistic scenario A$0.2274. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vital Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1490, about +52% upside versus a price of A$0.0980 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1098, optimistic scenario A$0.2274. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vital Metals Ltd it is A$0.1490 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.0980. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vital Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VML trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0980, fair value A$0.1490, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0980); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1490). For Vital Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0510 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vital Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Vital Metals Ltd at about A$24.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0980; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1490 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VML?
Our models span a range for Vital Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1098, base A$0.1490, optimistic A$0.2274 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.0980). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vital Metals Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VML from its 52-week high?
Vital Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0980, about 76% below its 52-week high of A$0.4100 and 96% above the low of A$0.0500 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1490 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vital Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vital Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.0980, calculated fair value A$0.1490 (+52%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VML calculated?
We run Vital Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1490, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vital Metals Ltd currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.0980. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1490, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vital Metals Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.1098). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1098 to A$0.2274) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vital Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The market capitalisation of Vital Metals Ltd is A$24.8M (≈ $17.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Earnings per share at Vital Metals Ltd are A$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vital Metals Ltd is −5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vital Metals Ltd is −7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
The operating margin of Vital Metals Ltd is −6,309% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Vital Metals Ltd (VML) generate?
Vital Metals Ltd generates revenue of −A$378K (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Vital Metals Ltd (VML)?
Revenue at Vital Metals Ltd is growing −98.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +110%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vital Metals Ltd (VML) generate?
The free cash flow of Vital Metals Ltd is −A$1.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vital Metals Ltd (VML) carry?
The net debt of Vital Metals Ltd is A$1.5M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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