Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.62 – ¥9.96 · fair‑value band ¥0.5250 – ¥2.69 · the ¥1.77 price screens above the ¥1.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. engages in the investment and operation of theme parks, hotels, and real estate properties in China.
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Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. engages in the investment and operation of theme parks, hotels, and real estate properties in China. The company offers theme parks, such as theme amusement, water park, theme culture, ecological pastoral, and skyscraper; cultural and commercial tourism complexes; natural and cultural scenic spots and others; and travel services. The company was formerly known as Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Holding Company and changed its name to Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. in July 2010. Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069) currently trades at ¥1.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.38, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥9.99 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥1.77 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.23, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.5250 (bear) to ¥2.69 (bull), the price of ¥1.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd reported revenue of 31.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 103B CNY in FY2021, a compound −25.6%/yr. Reported net income was −14.5B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 14.2B CNY (≈ $2.1B) · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.83 · Net margin −46.2% · Return on equity −29.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin −12.5% · Revenue (TTM) 30.1B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −22%, 000069 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥0.5250Fair Value ¥1.38Bull ¥2.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−42.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.5%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
26.6% (2020) → −3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−48% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−25% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000069
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.38 versus a price of ¥1.77, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000069?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is ¥1.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥1.77.
What is the quality score of 000069?
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.5250, optimistic scenario ¥2.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.38, about −22% upside versus a price of ¥1.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.5250, optimistic scenario ¥2.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 30.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd it is ¥1.38 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥1.77. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 000069 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥1.77, fair value ¥1.38, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000069?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥1.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.38). For Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd the two are ¥0.3950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd at about 14.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥1.77; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000069?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.5250, base ¥1.38, optimistic ¥2.69 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥1.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 000069?
The PEG ratio of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −29.7%, debt of 2.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000069 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd trades at ¥1.77, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥2.93 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥1.77, calculated fair value ¥1.38 (−22%), Quality Score 48/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000069 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥0.5250 to ¥2.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is 14.2B CNY (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd are ¥−1.83. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is −46.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is −29.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is −12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is growing −24.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd are growing −98.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is 11.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd (000069) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd is 61.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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