Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd ¥3.72, price ¥4.19, upside -11.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.42 – ¥6.60 · fair‑value band ¥2.79 – ¥4.65 · the ¥4.19 price screens above the ¥3.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. engages in the natural gas, plastic pipes, and other industrial businesses in China. The company invests in, constructs, and operates gas transmission and distribution pipelines, urban natural gas networks, liquefied natural gas (LNG), compressed natural gas (CNG), and natural gas distributed energy.
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Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. engages in the natural gas, plastic pipes, and other industrial businesses in China. The company invests in, constructs, and operates gas transmission and distribution pipelines, urban natural gas networks, liquefied natural gas (LNG), compressed natural gas (CNG), and natural gas distributed energy. It also provides natural gas application services for industry, commerce, residents, and other fields; natural gas supply for vehicles using natural gas in the fields of transportation; and urban transportation services, as well as solutions in the field of natural gas and value-added services. In addition, the company is involved in natural gas midstream and upstream business; natural gas distribution and transportation business; and natural gas energy distribution and smart gas systems business. Further, it produces polyethylene pipes, which are used in water supply and drainage, gas, industrial pipe networks, fire protection, marine equipment, dredging, lining repair, thermal power, and other fields. Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is based in Jinan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407) currently trades at ¥4.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.72, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥5.65 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥4.19 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.6500, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.79 (bear) to ¥4.65 (bull), the price of ¥4.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 156M CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B CNY (≈ $551M) · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1900 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −11%, 000407 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.79Fair Value ¥3.72Bull ¥4.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0951 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.3% a year for the price.
Compare Shandong Shengli Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Shengli Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000407
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.72 versus a price of ¥4.19, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000407?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is ¥3.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.19.
What is the quality score of 000407?
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.79, optimistic scenario ¥4.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Shengli Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.72, about −11% upside versus a price of ¥4.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.79, optimistic scenario ¥4.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shandong Shengli Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shandong Shengli Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000407 use?
Our models discount Shandong Shengli Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shandong Shengli Co Ltd that is -0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shandong Shengli Co Ltd grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies -0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (-0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.40 %: that much free cash flow Shandong Shengli Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Shengli Co Ltd it is ¥3.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.19. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Shengli Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000407 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.19, fair value ¥3.72, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000407?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.72). For Shandong Shengli Co Ltd the two are ¥0.4700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Shengli Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shandong Shengli Co Ltd at about 3.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.19; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000407?
Our models span a range for Shandong Shengli Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.79, base ¥3.72, optimistic ¥4.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000407?
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000407 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Shengli Co Ltd trades at ¥4.19, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥6.60 and 23% above the low of ¥3.40 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Shengli Co Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Shengli Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.19, calculated fair value ¥3.72 (−11%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000407 calculated?
We run Shandong Shengli Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Shengli Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥4.19. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.72, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Shengli Co Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 3.7B CNY (≈ $551M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Shengli Co Ltd are ¥0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 1.4% (payout 31.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The net margin of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
The operating margin of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Revenue at Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is growing −10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Shengli Co Ltd are growing +31.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shandong Shengli Co Ltd (000407) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Shengli Co Ltd is 1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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