Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹122.48 – ₹388.30 · fair‑value band ₹330.39 – ₹714.01 · the ₹312.75 price screens below the ₹441.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons.
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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons. The company operates fuel stations that sell motor spirits, high-speed diesel, blended fuels, compressed and liquefied natural gas, automotive liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and lubricants; operate convenience stores, restaurants, and electric vehicle charging facilities; and offer ATM, money transfer, insurance, and vehicle care services. It also provides LPG for domestic, commercial, and metal cutting applications under the Bharatgas brand name; automobile lubricants, such as automotive engine and gear oils, greases, and specialties, as well as industrial lubricants under the MAK brand; jet fuel; and aviation services, including transportation, storage, and intoplane services. In addition, the company offers industrial fuels products, white oils, bitumen and specialty bitumen, petcoke, sulphur, solvents, petrochemicals, bunkering, and petrochemical feedstock products; and operates pipelines to transport petroleum products. Further, it exports naphtha and fuel oils; and engages in city gas distribution activities. The company's marketing infrastructure includes a network of installations, depots, retail outlets, aviation fueling stations, and LPG distributors. The company was formerly known as Bharat Refineries Limited and changed its name to Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited in August 1977. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) currently trades at ₹312.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹441.28, implying the stock looks roughly 29.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹1,272 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹312.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹157.08, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹330.39 (bear) to ₹714.01 (bull), the price of ₹312.75 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited reported revenue of ₹4.6T in FY2026 versus ₹3.5T in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹258B in FY2026, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.3T (≈ $13.9B) · P/E ratio 5.2 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) ₹60.50 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 28.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −68% fair-value upside, at 41%, BPCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹330.39Fair Value ₹441.28Bull ₹714.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹28.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 12%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 8%
2026 sits 94% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 15/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+40% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹441.28 versus a price of ₹312.75, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BPCL?
Our model-based fair value for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is ₹441.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹312.75.
What is the quality score of BPCL?
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹441.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹330.39, optimistic scenario ₹714.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹441.28, about +41% upside versus a price of ₹312.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹330.39, optimistic scenario ₹714.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹4.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited pay a dividend?
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPCL use?
Our models discount Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited that is -11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies -11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (-11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.77 %: that much free cash flow Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited it is ₹441.28 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ₹312.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, BPCL trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹312.75, fair value ₹441.28, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹312.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹441.28). For Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited the two are ₹128.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited worth?
The market values Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited at about ₹1.3T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ₹312.75; our models calculate a fair value of ₹441.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPCL?
Our models span a range for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited: cautious scenario ₹330.39, base ₹441.28, optimistic ₹714.01 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ₹312.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPCL?
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹441.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BPCL?
The PEG ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 28.5%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPCL from its 52-week high?
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited trades at ₹312.75, about 20% below its 52-week high of ₹391.65 and 17% above the low of ₹266.60 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹441.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ₹312.75, calculated fair value ₹441.28 (+41%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPCL calculated?
We run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹441.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ₹312.75. Our model-based fair value is ₹441.28, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹330.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹330.39 to ₹714.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) come from?
Earnings per share at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited grew +12.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The market capitalisation of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is ₹1.3T (≈ $13.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Earnings per share at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited are ₹60.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The dividend yield of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 7.6% (payout 39.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The net margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 5.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 28.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
The operating margin of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Revenue at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL)?
Earnings per share at Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited are growing +28.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) carry?
The net debt of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is ₹367B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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