Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · IN · Market cap ₹1.3T
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from ₹846.81 to ₹441.28 (−47.9%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 36% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹330.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹122.48 – ₹388.30 · fair‑value band ₹330.96 – ₹551.60 · the ₹323.70 price screens below the ₹441.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) currently trades at ₹323.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹441.28, implying the stock looks roughly 36.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bharat Petroleum Corporation generated revenue of ₹4.6T at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.5%. Net debt stands at ₹367B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹330.96 (bear case) to ₹551.60 (bull case); at ₹323.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 36%, BPCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (₹1,361) versus Asset-Based (₹157.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons.
Full company description
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons. The company operates fuel stations that sell motor spirits, high-speed diesel, blended fuels, compressed and liquefied natural gas, automotive liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and lubricants; operate convenience stores, restaurants, and electric vehicle charging facilities; and offer ATM, money transfer, insurance, and vehicle care services. It also provides LPG for domestic, commercial, and metal cutting applications under the Bharatgas brand name; automobile lubricants, such as automotive engine and gear oils, greases, and specialties, as well as industrial lubricants under the MAK brand; jet fuel; and aviation services, including transportation, storage, and intoplane services. In addition, the company offers industrial fuels products, white oils, bitumen and specialty bitumen, petcoke, sulphur, solvents, petrochemicals, bunkering, and petrochemical feedstock products; and operates pipelines to transport petroleum products. Further, it exports naphtha and fuel oils; and engages in city gas distribution activities. The company's marketing infrastructure includes a network of installations, depots, retail outlets, aviation fueling stations, and LPG distributors. The company was formerly known as Bharat Refineries Limited and changed its name to Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited in August 1977. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Bharat Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of ₹4.6T in FY2026 versus ₹3.5T in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹258B in FY2026, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $74.00 | $53.36 | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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