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ADAMA Ltd (000553) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of ADAMA Ltd ¥8.98, price ¥5.61, upside +60.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE0000004V0

AL Thin data Sep 24, 2026

ADAMA Ltd

000553 · SHE

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value ¥8.98 · Strongly undervalued (+60%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥13.08 ¥4.16 Fair Value ¥8.98 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.16 – ¥13.08 · fair‑value band ¥4.19 – ¥14.77 · the ¥5.61 price screens below the ¥8.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

ADAMA Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and commercializes crop protection products in Israel and internationally. The company operates through Crop Protection (Agro), and Intermediates and Ingredients segments.

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ADAMA Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and commercializes crop protection products in Israel and internationally. The company operates through Crop Protection (Agro), and Intermediates and Ingredients segments. It provides herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides to protect agricultural crops from weeds, diseases, and insects; and other crop-protection products, such as miticides and nematicides, and intermediates to produce active ingredients for crop protection, as well as seed treatment products. The company also offers intermediate materials and ingredients, such as food additives; synthetic aromatic products; Lycopan, an oxidization retardant; dietary supplements; food colors; texture and flavor enhancers; and food fortification ingredients. In addition, it provides fragrance products for perfume, cosmetics, body care, and detergent industries; industrial products; and consumer and professional solutions. It primarily operates in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, North America, Brazil, India, and the Asia Pacific. The company was formerly known as Hubei Sanonda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ADAMA Ltd. in December 2018. ADAMA Ltd. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Airport City, Israel. ADAMA Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Syngenta Group Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

ADAMA Ltd (000553) currently trades at ¥5.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.98, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥26.80 per share, and 12 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥5.61 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.02, and 3 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥4.19 (bear) to ¥14.77 (bull), the price of ¥5.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

ADAMA Ltd reported revenue of 28.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 31.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −1.0B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 13.1B CNY (≈ $2.0B) · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2700 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin −3.6% · Return on equity −3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% · Operating margin 8.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, 000553 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥4.19 Fair Value ¥8.98 Bull ¥14.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥22.14 ¥40.04 ¥88.10 74
EPV ¥2.39 ¥3.02 ¥3.56 74
Growth DCF ¥21.26 ¥44.68 ¥87.70 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥22.14 ¥40.04 ¥88.10 74
5Y Revenue Exit ¥10.48 ¥18.32 ¥30.46 70
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥14.30 ¥26.80 ¥45.40 72
10Y Revenue Exit ¥13.68 ¥23.66 ¥36.96 65
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.60 ¥30.52 ¥53.92 66
Earnings-Based
EPV ¥2.39 ¥3.02 ¥3.56 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.91 ¥8.12 ¥12.88 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.91 ¥6.85 ¥8.52 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥6.53 ¥9.16 ¥11.79 66
EV/EBITDA ¥11.53 ¥15.82 ¥20.11 67
EV/Revenue ¥5.48 ¥8.41 ¥11.34 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.04 ¥5.41 ¥8.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥21.26 ¥44.68 ¥87.70 74
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.48 ¥18.71 ¥30.57 71
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder ¥2.39 ¥3.02 ¥3.56 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.9% (2020) → 5.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.9% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.36× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.11× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.07× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)3 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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ADAMA Ltd · Fair Value
¥8.98 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ADAMA Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000553

Frequently asked questions

Is ADAMA Ltd (000553) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.98 versus a price of ¥5.61, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000553?
Our model-based fair value for ADAMA Ltd is ¥8.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.61.
What is the quality score of 000553?
ADAMA Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.19, optimistic scenario ¥14.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ADAMA Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.98, about +60% upside versus a price of ¥5.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.19, optimistic scenario ¥14.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
ADAMA Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ADAMA Ltd pay a dividend?
ADAMA Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ADAMA Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000553 use?
Our models discount ADAMA Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ADAMA Ltd that is -9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ADAMA Ltd (000553) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ADAMA Ltd grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies -9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ADAMA Ltd (000553) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ADAMA Ltd (-9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.69 %: that much free cash flow ADAMA Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ADAMA Ltd it is ¥8.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥5.61. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ADAMA Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000553 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.61, fair value ¥8.98, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000553?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.98). For ADAMA Ltd the two are ¥3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ADAMA Ltd worth?
The market values ADAMA Ltd at about 13.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.61; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000553?
Our models span a range for ADAMA Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.19, base ¥8.98, optimistic ¥14.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥5.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
Balance-sheet figures for ADAMA Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.4%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000553 from its 52-week high?
ADAMA Ltd trades at ¥5.61, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥7.50 and 10% above the low of ¥5.08 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ADAMA Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ADAMA Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥5.61, calculated fair value ¥8.98 (+60%), Quality Score 53/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000553 calculated?
We run ADAMA Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ADAMA Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥5.61. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.98, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ADAMA Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥4.19 to ¥14.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of ADAMA Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The market capitalisation of ADAMA Ltd is 13.1B CNY (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ADAMA Ltd is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
Earnings per share at ADAMA Ltd are ¥−0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The dividend yield of ADAMA Ltd is 7.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The net margin of ADAMA Ltd is −3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ADAMA Ltd is −3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ADAMA Ltd is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
The operating margin of ADAMA Ltd is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
Revenue at ADAMA Ltd is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ADAMA Ltd (000553)?
Earnings per share at ADAMA Ltd are growing +277% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ADAMA Ltd (000553) carry?
The net debt of ADAMA Ltd is 9.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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