Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $32.2B
Nutrien Ltd
NTR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 20% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($44.99 to $100.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.19 – $98.48 · fair‑value band $44.99 – $100.36 · the $66.76 price screens below the $80.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Nutrien Ltd (NTR) currently trades at $66.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $80.29, implying the stock looks roughly 20.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nutrien Ltd generated revenue of $26.9B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. Net debt stands at $12.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $44.99 (bear case) to $100.36 (bull case); at $66.76, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at 20%, NTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($96.39) versus Asset-Based ($35.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate.
Full company description
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Retail segment markets crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed, and merchandise, as well as provides agronomic application and financing services and solutions; and produces proprietary products, including proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection, and seed products. The Potash segment includes mining and processing of potash. The Nitrogen segment owns and operates ammonia production facilities that offers ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea solutions, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as environmentally smart nitrogen and ammonium sulfate. The Phosphate segment manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers, phosphate feed, and purified phosphoric acid, which is used in feed and industrial products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nutrien Ltd reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $27.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nutrien Ltd. Q2 Sales Increase
- Nutrien (NTR) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates
- Nutrien (NTR) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
- Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend of US$0.55 per Share
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
| PI Industries Limited PIIND | ₹2,624 | ₹1,345 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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