CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CF Industries Holdings Inc stock $115, price $119, that is 3.1% below the price, quality 81 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.23 – $139.27 · fair‑value band $86.16 – $143.60 · the $118.57 price screens above the $114.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments.
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The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products.
It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
Stock analysis
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) currently trades at $118.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $114.88, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $187.21 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $118.57 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $36.54, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $86.16 (bear) to $143.60 (bull), the price of $118.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CF Industries Holdings Inc reported revenue of $7.1B in FY2025 versus $6.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.2B Large · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) $13.48 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 27.1% · Return on equity 29.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −3%, CF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$86.16Fair Value $114.88Bull$143.60
Price $118.57 · Downside -3.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.75 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$150.19$248.40$411.7878
Growth DCF$154.14$242.56$381.2877
Owner Earnings$109.46$182.41$303.7574
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$150.19$248.40$411.7878
Owner Earnings$109.46$182.41$303.7574
5Y Revenue Exit$75.02$108.61$149.4673
5Y EBITDA Exit$140.66$231.18$336.0374
5Y P/E Exit$117.11$187.21$259.9670
10Y Revenue Exit$97.49$134.85$181.6967
10Y EBITDA Exit$142.58$223.29$329.5968
10Y P/E Exit$126.98$191.56$269.2964
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$65.38$200.98$266.9765
Lynch FV$43.34$61.92$80.4961
PEG = 1.0$43.34$61.92$80.4957
EPV$123.75$148.06$169.9574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$21.46$48.76$86.5465
DDM Multi-Stage$21.46$36.54$50.5166
Multiples
P/E Multiple$122.58$163.44$204.3063
P/S Multiple$52.66$70.21$87.7758
P/B Multiple$27.83$37.11$46.3955
EV/EBIT$151.10$205.80$260.4966
EV/EBITDA$148.72$202.63$256.5367
EV/Revenue$36.17$57.23$78.2953
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$6.18$8.29$12.3754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$154.14$242.56$381.2877
Rev-Margin DCF$75.02$110.52$151.9973
Economic Profit
Residual Income$58.87$74.47$132.7573
ROIC Compounder$132.57$170.20$213.1072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$103.40$147.72$192.0467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleBert A FrostEVP, Chief Commercial Officer4× since Mar 2, 2026: 32,886 shares, avg. $121.15$4.0MMar 17, 2026
SaleRichard A HokerVP and Corporate Controller3× since Feb 27, 2026: 15,303 shares, avg. $109.02$1.7MMar 17, 2026
SaleErik M. MayerVP, Clean Energy & BusDevelop2× since Mar 6, 2026: 3,700 shares, avg. $119.67$442,785Mar 17, 2026
SaleW Anthony WillDirector5× since Feb 20, 2026: 552,594 shares, avg. $107.13$59.2MMar 13, 2026
SaleSusan L MenzelEVP and Chief Admin. Officer5× since Feb 26, 2026: 39,228 shares, avg. $119.66$4.7MMar 12, 2026
SaleMichael Patrick McGraneSVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary2× since Mar 3, 2026: 6,432 shares, avg. $111.71$718,515Mar 6, 2026
SaleAshraf K MalikSr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istn2× since Mar 2, 2026: 11,070 shares, avg. $104.82$1.2MMar 5, 2026
SaleLinda M DempseyVP, Public Affairs2× since Feb 27, 2026: 3,000 shares, avg. $104.33$313,000Mar 5, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+33.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32.2% vs 7.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 33%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.4% a year for the price and −6.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: High utilization of ammonia plants supports strong cash conversion, yet commodity exposure in a cyclical industry limits any lasting competitive edge.
Main risk: Intense price competition from named rivals including Nutrien, Koch Fertilizer and Yara as well as imports from the Middle East, Trinidad, Africa and Russia could squeeze margins on ammonia and urea products.
Bull case: By leveraging its North American cost advantage and completing Blue Point with partners, CF could capture premium low-carbon ammonia demand from decarbonization rules and raise mid-cycle EBITDA.
Bear case: If the Blue Point lawsuit succeeds, Trinidad gas issues persist and rivals undercut prices, CF might face lower utilization, margin compression and delayed capacity growth before the next fertilizer upcycle.
CF Industries runs its ammonia plants at 98 percent utilization and turns strong earnings into cash flow. It has broken ground on Blue Point One, the world’s largest low-carbon ammonia facility with partners, aiming to raise mid-cycle EBITDA by 2030. Will the new capacity mainly capture premium demand from decarbonization rules or add cost and delay before the next fertilizer cycle?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)49.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Is CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $114.88 versus a price of $118.57, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CF?
Our model-based fair value for CF Industries Holdings Inc is $114.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $118.57.
What is the quality score of CF?
CF Industries Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $114.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $86.16, optimistic scenario $143.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CF Industries Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $114.88, about 3% lower versus a price of $118.57 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $86.16, optimistic scenario $143.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
CF Industries Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does CF Industries Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
CF Industries Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CF Industries Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CF use?
Our models discount CF Industries Holdings Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CF Industries Holdings Inc that is -5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CF Industries Holdings Inc grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies -5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CF Industries Holdings Inc (-5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.88 %: that much free cash flow CF Industries Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CF Industries Holdings Inc it is $114.88 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $118.57. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CF Industries Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CF trades above its calculated fair value: price $118.57, fair value $114.88, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($118.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($114.88). For CF Industries Holdings Inc the two are $3.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CF Industries Holdings Inc worth?
The market values CF Industries Holdings Inc at about $18.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $118.57; our models calculate a fair value of $114.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CF?
Our models span a range for CF Industries Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $86.16, base $114.88, optimistic $143.60 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $118.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CF?
CF Industries Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $114.88 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.3 (reported for FY2025: 13.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 10.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 3.8, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CF?
The PEG ratio of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CF Industries Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 29.9%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CF from its 52-week high?
CF Industries Holdings Inc trades at $118.57, about 15% below its 52-week high of $139.27 and 57% above the low of $75.38 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $114.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CF Industries Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, Yara International ASA, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CF Industries Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $118.57, calculated fair value $114.88 (−3%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CF calculated?
We run CF Industries Holdings Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $114.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. CF Industries Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $118.57. Our model-based fair value is $114.88, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CF Industries Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) come from?
Earnings per share at CF Industries Holdings Inc grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CF Industries Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The market capitalisation of CF Industries Holdings Inc is $18.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 2.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
Earnings per share at CF Industries Holdings Inc are $13.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The dividend yield of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 1.7% (payout 11.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 14.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The net margin of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 27.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 29.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 21.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
The operating margin of CF Industries Holdings Inc is 49.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
Revenue at CF Industries Holdings Inc is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
Earnings per share at CF Industries Holdings Inc are growing +99.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) carry?
The net debt of CF Industries Holdings Inc is $2.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026