GF Securities Co Ltd (000776) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what GF Securities Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.88 – ¥24.86 · fair‑value band ¥12.96 – ¥21.60 · the ¥20.79 price screens above the ¥17.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
GF Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides capital market services in China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Trading and Institution, and Investment Management.
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GF Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides capital market services in China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Trading and Institution, and Investment Management. The company offers equity and debt financing, financial consulting, and mergers and acquisitions; and brokerage services, investment advisory, margin financing, securities lending, and various financial products. It also provides equity sales and trading, derivative and fixed-income products, OTC liquidity services, investment research, and custodian services; and asset and fund management, private equity, and alternative investments, as well as qualified foreign and domestic institutional investors. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
GF Securities Co Ltd (000776) currently trades at ¥20.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.28, implying the stock looks roughly 20.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: ¥12.96 (bear) to ¥21.60 (bull), the price of ¥20.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
GF Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 34.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 41.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 13.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 158B CNY (≈ $23.7B) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 3.92 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.93 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 40.2% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −17%, 000776 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥12.96Fair Value ¥17.28Bull ¥21.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9656 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +5.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 32%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 73% above its own trend.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (28 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)55% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth70% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.92× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GF Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000776
Frequently asked questions
Is GF Securities Co Ltd (000776) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.28 versus a price of ¥20.79, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000776?
Our model-based fair value for GF Securities Co Ltd is ¥17.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥20.79.
What is the quality score of 000776?
GF Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.96, optimistic scenario ¥21.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GF Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.28, about −17% upside versus a price of ¥20.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.96, optimistic scenario ¥21.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
GF Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 40.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does GF Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
GF Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GF Securities Co Ltd it is ¥17.28 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥20.79. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GF Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 000776 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥20.79, fair value ¥17.28, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000776?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥20.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.28). For GF Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥3.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GF Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values GF Securities Co Ltd at about 158B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥20.79; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000776?
Our models span a range for GF Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥12.96, base ¥17.28, optimistic ¥21.60 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥20.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000776?
GF Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥17.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 000776?
The PEG ratio of GF Securities Co Ltd is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
Balance-sheet figures for GF Securities Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000776 from its 52-week high?
GF Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥20.79, about 15% below its 52-week high of ¥24.54 and 31% above the low of ¥15.82 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GF Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GF Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥20.79, calculated fair value ¥17.28 (−17%), Quality Score 46/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000776 calculated?
We run GF Securities Co Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. GF Securities Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥20.79. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.28, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GF Securities Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776) come from?
Earnings per share at GF Securities Co Ltd grew −0.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −5.8 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of GF Securities Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The market capitalisation of GF Securities Co Ltd is 158B CNY (≈ $23.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GF Securities Co Ltd is 3.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
Earnings per share at GF Securities Co Ltd are ¥1.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The dividend yield of GF Securities Co Ltd is 2.9% (payout 31.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The net margin of GF Securities Co Ltd is 40.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GF Securities Co Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GF Securities Co Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
The operating margin of GF Securities Co Ltd is 55.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
Revenue at GF Securities Co Ltd is growing +70.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GF Securities Co Ltd (000776)?
Earnings per share at GF Securities Co Ltd are growing +75.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GF Securities Co Ltd (000776) generate?
The free cash flow of GF Securities Co Ltd is −28.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does GF Securities Co Ltd (000776) hold?
GF Securities Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 141B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 18, 2026