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GF Securities Co (000776) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 170B CNY

GS GF Securities Co 000776 · SHE
Price¥21.20
Fair Value¥28.74
Upside+35.6%
Quality50/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 39.2% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
2.66% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range ¥21.55 – ¥35.92 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥37.02 to ¥28.74 (−22.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −7.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 36% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥24.86 ¥10.88 Fair Value ¥28.74 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥10.88 – ¥24.86 · fair‑value band ¥21.55 – ¥35.92 · the ¥21.20 price screens below the ¥28.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

GF Securities Co (000776) currently trades at ¥21.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥28.74, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, GF Securities Co generated revenue of 40.0B CNY at a net margin of 39.2%. Revenue grew 70.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 141B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥21.55 (bear case) to ¥35.92 (bull case); at ¥21.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 36%, 000776 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥17.46 ¥19.00 ¥25.46 76
ROIC Compounder ¥49.95 ¥52.15 ¥54.08 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥56.87 ¥81.25 ¥105.62 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥65.65 ¥102.53 ¥179.94 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥12.25 ¥85.43 ¥119.89 54
Lynch FV ¥44.14 ¥63.05 ¥81.97 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥44.14 ¥63.05 ¥81.97 46
EPV ¥49.95 ¥52.15 ¥54.08 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥27.02 ¥36.03 ¥45.04 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.40 ¥11.21 ¥14.01 58
P/B Multiple ¥22.97 ¥30.62 ¥38.28 55
EV/EBIT ¥57.78 ¥64.80 ¥71.81 53
EV/EBITDA ¥53.26 ¥58.77 ¥64.27 54
EV/Revenue ¥44.59 ¥47.95 ¥51.31 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥10.26 ¥13.75 ¥20.53 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥17.46 ¥19.00 ¥25.46 76
ROIC Compounder ¥49.95 ¥52.15 ¥54.08 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥56.87 ¥81.25 ¥105.62 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥102.53) versus Asset-Based (¥13.75). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 40.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +70.1%
Net margin 39.2%
Return on equity 10.2%
Free cash flow −28.5B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 9.7
More key figures
Operating margin 55.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.93
Dividend yield 3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +75.8%
Net cash 141B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

GF Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides capital market services in China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Trading and Institution, and Investment Management.

Full company description

GF Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides capital market services in China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Trading and Institution, and Investment Management. The company offers equity and debt financing, financial consulting, and mergers and acquisitions; and brokerage services, investment advisory, margin financing, securities lending, and various financial products. It also provides equity sales and trading, derivative and fixed-income products, OTC liquidity services, investment research, and custodian services; and asset and fund management, private equity, and alternative investments, as well as qualified foreign and domestic institutional investors. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GF Securities Co reported revenue of ¥34.1B in FY2025 versus ¥41.5B in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥13.7B in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 14/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
34.1B CNY
Latest YoY
−6.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−0.8%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+29.8%
Revenue −4.8%/yr
FY21 ¥41.5B
FY22 ¥33.0B
FY23 ¥33.0B
FY24 ¥36.6B
FY25 ¥34.1B
Net income +6.0%/yr
FY21 ¥10.9B
FY22 ¥7.9B
FY23 ¥7.0B
FY24 ¥9.6B
FY25 ¥13.7B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GF Securities Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000776

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 424 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +36% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 55% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 70% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.92× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.09× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.26× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.41× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 81 · sector 11
FUTURE 100 · sector 91
PAST 41 · sector 31
HEALTH 54 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 53 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Huatai Securities Co HTSC $0.2700 $0.0400 -85%
Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 38,750 KRW 31,645 KRW -18%
Meritz Financial Group 138040 117,000 KRW 87,706 KRW -25%
Korea Investment Holdings 071050 239,000 KRW 318,825 KRW +33%
NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 31,000 KRW 37,133 KRW +20%
Samsung Securities Co 016360 107,700 KRW 126,487 KRW +17%
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS ₹967.00 ₹299.65 -69%
Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 322,000 KRW 358,091 KRW +11%
SSI Securities Corporation SSI 24,250 VND 28,021 VND +16%
Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA 313.75 ARS 120.22 ARS -62%

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Frequently asked questions

Is GF Securities Co (000776) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥28.74 versus a price of ¥21.20, about +36% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000776?
Our model-based fair value for GF Securities Co is ¥28.74 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥21.20.
What is the quality score of 000776?
GF Securities Co has a Quality Score of 50/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of GF Securities Co (000776)?
GF Securities Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 40.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000776?
The net profit margin of GF Securities Co is about 39.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 39.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does GF Securities Co pay a dividend?
GF Securities Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.13% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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