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Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co (000828) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 10.3B CNY

DD Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co 000828 · SHE
Price¥9.94
Fair Value¥14.65
Upside+47.4%
Quality67/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 57.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.80% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range ¥10.48 – ¥18.48 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥14.77 to ¥14.65 (−0.8%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥10.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥12.14 ¥6.69 Fair Value ¥14.65 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.69 – ¥12.14 · fair‑value band ¥10.48 – ¥18.48 · the ¥9.94 price screens below the ¥14.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co (000828) currently trades at ¥9.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.65, implying the stock looks roughly 47.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co generated revenue of 1.5B CNY at a net margin of 57.7%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at 657M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥10.48 (bear case) to ¥18.48 (bull case); at ¥9.94, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 47%, 000828 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥10.23 ¥15.93 ¥24.30 80
Residual Income ¥8.18 ¥8.79 ¥10.18 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.22 ¥5.71 ¥7.39 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥10.11 ¥16.69 ¥27.08 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥4.26 ¥5.84 ¥7.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.84 ¥16.55 ¥24.49 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥10.44 ¥17.70 ¥25.47 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.18 ¥8.18 ¥10.65 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.84 ¥15.72 ¥23.75 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥10.22 ¥16.53 ¥24.52 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.39 ¥18.79 ¥25.26 54
Lynch FV ¥4.37 ¥6.24 ¥8.12 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.37 ¥6.24 ¥8.12 46
EPV ¥5.64 ¥6.68 ¥7.59 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥12.48 ¥16.64 ¥20.80 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.24 ¥2.99 ¥3.73 58
P/B Multiple ¥10.10 ¥13.47 ¥16.83 55
EV/EBIT ¥10.97 ¥14.82 ¥18.67 53
EV/EBITDA ¥10.88 ¥14.70 ¥18.52 54
EV/Revenue ¥1.30 ¥2.10 ¥2.91 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.90 ¥6.56 ¥9.80 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥10.23 ¥15.93 ¥24.30 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.22 ¥5.71 ¥7.39 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.18 ¥8.79 ¥10.18 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.64 ¥6.68 ¥7.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥10.75 ¥15.35 ¥19.96 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥16.53) versus Growth DCF (¥5.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.5B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.9%
Net margin 57.7%
Return on equity 8.4%
Free cash flow 949M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 11.5
More key figures
Operating margin 65.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.8600
Dividend yield 4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +29.8%
Net debt 657M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd. develops, invests, constructs, and operates urban rail transit in China. The company operates in three segments: Highway Toll Collection and Overseas Investment, Financial Services, and New Energy Vehicle Charging.

Full company description

Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd. develops, invests, constructs, and operates urban rail transit in China. The company operates in three segments: Highway Toll Collection and Overseas Investment, Financial Services, and New Energy Vehicle Charging. It also provides financial leasing and commercial factoring, as well as new energy vehicle charging and swapping. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Fudi Technology Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Dongguan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co reported revenue of ¥1.6B in FY2025 versus ¥5.3B in FY2021, a compound −26.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥824M in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.6B CNY
Latest YoY
−8.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−27.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+1.3%
Revenue −26.5%/yr
FY21 ¥5.3B
FY22 ¥4.1B
FY23 ¥4.7B
FY24 ¥1.7B
FY25 ¥1.6B
Net income −3.0%/yr
FY21 ¥930M
FY22 ¥828M
FY23 ¥667M
FY24 ¥955M
FY25 ¥824M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000828

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +47% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 65% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.34× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.01× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.67× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.7× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 97 · sector 54
FUTURE 0 · sector 13
PAST 34 · sector 25
HEALTH 83 · sector 69
DIVIDEND 96 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co (000828) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.65 versus a price of ¥9.94, about +47% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000828?
Our model-based fair value for Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co is ¥14.65 (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.94.
What is the quality score of 000828?
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co (000828)?
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000828?
The net profit margin of Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co is about 57.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 57.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co pay a dividend?
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.80% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 21, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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