Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co (000828) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 10.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥14.77 to ¥14.65 (−0.8%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥10.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.69 – ¥12.14 · fair‑value band ¥10.48 – ¥18.48 · the ¥9.94 price screens below the ¥14.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co (000828) currently trades at ¥9.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.65, implying the stock looks roughly 47.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co generated revenue of 1.5B CNY at a net margin of 57.7%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at 657M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥10.48 (bear case) to ¥18.48 (bull case); at ¥9.94, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 47%, 000828 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥16.53) versus Growth DCF (¥5.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd. develops, invests, constructs, and operates urban rail transit in China. The company operates in three segments: Highway Toll Collection and Overseas Investment, Financial Services, and New Energy Vehicle Charging.
Full company description
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd. develops, invests, constructs, and operates urban rail transit in China. The company operates in three segments: Highway Toll Collection and Overseas Investment, Financial Services, and New Energy Vehicle Charging. It also provides financial leasing and commercial factoring, as well as new energy vehicle charging and swapping. The company was formerly known as Guangdong Fudi Technology Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Dongguan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co reported revenue of ¥1.6B in FY2025 versus ¥5.3B in FY2021, a compound −26.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥824M in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.88 | ¥9.16 | -7% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥11.86 | ¥15.32 | +29% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.86 | ¥8.68 | -20% |
| Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina, S.A. IDEALB1 | 43.00 MXN | 43.57 MXN | +1% |
| Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura, S. A. B. de C. V. PINFRA | 281.25 MXN | 945.00 MXN | +236% |
| Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A MOTV3 | R$14.82 | R$29.18 | +97% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$6.16 | HK$18.35 | +198% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥16.31 | ¥14.90 | -9% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥14.33 | ¥17.93 | +25% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.35 | ¥7.70 | -8% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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