Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.22 – ¥16.60 · fair‑value band ¥1.96 – ¥2.51 · the ¥9.47 price screens above the ¥2.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacturing, sale, and service of CNC machine tools and systems in China and internationally.
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Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacturing, sale, and service of CNC machine tools and systems in China and internationally. Th company offers precision gear grinding machines, CNC lathes, machining centers, automation production line, measuring equipment, scrolling function components, cutting tools, industrial robot joint reducer, gearbox, and transmission gears. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Shaanxi Qinchuan Machinery Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd. in October 2014. Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Baoji, China.
Stock analysis
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837) currently trades at ¥9.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.51, implying the stock looks roughly 277.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥3.20 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥9.47 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.4800, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥1.96 (bear) to ¥2.51 (bull), the price of ¥9.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.2%/yr. Reported net income was 52.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −34.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.6B CNY (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 189.4 · P/S ratio 2.46 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0500 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −74%, 000837 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.96Fair Value ¥2.51Bull ¥2.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest YoY
+5.7%
Revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth/yr (30Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend, before any change in valuation.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: last 5 vs last 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27.7% vs 7.3%, slowing
Share of sales kept as operating profit ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.2% (2020) → −2.4% (2025) · falling
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, ten years of growth, then 2 % a year. Compared with the average analyst sales forecast (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.2%
How much the company would have to grow every year for ten years to justify the current price.
Analysts expect (Ø )
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
🔴 A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)189.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF20.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA72.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)48· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)63· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000837
Frequently asked questions
Is Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.51 versus a price of ¥9.47, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000837?
Our model-based fair value for Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is ¥2.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.47.
What is the quality score of 000837?
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.51 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.96, optimistic scenario ¥2.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.51, about −74% upside versus a price of ¥9.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.96, optimistic scenario ¥2.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.4 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000837 use?
Our models discount Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd that is +33.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (+33.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.96 %: that much free cash flow Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd it is ¥2.51 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥9.47. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 000837 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.47, fair value ¥2.51, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000837?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.51). For Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd the two are ¥6.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd worth?
The market values Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd at about 12.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.47; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000837?
Our models span a range for Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.96, base ¥2.51, optimistic ¥2.51 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥9.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000837?
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 189.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 72.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Balance-sheet figures for Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000837 from its 52-week high?
Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd trades at ¥9.47, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥16.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥9.47, calculated fair value ¥2.51 (−74%), Quality Score 47/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000837 calculated?
We run Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The market capitalisation of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 12.6B CNY (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 2.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Earnings per share at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd are ¥0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 189.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The dividend yield of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The net margin of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
The operating margin of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Revenue at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837)?
Earnings per share at Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd are growing −11.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd (000837) carry?
The net debt of Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co Ltd is 198M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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