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Anhui Ankai Automobile Co (000868) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.6B CNY

AA Anhui Ankai Automobile Co 000868 · SHE
Price¥3.58
Fair Value¥5.73
Upside+60.0%
Quality39/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -1.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 16/100
Evidence: Low Range ¥4.28 – ¥7.18 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price +6.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥4.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥9.00 ¥3.26 Fair Value ¥5.73 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.26 – ¥9.00 · fair‑value band ¥4.28 – ¥7.18 · the ¥3.58 price screens below the ¥5.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Anhui Ankai Automobile Co (000868) currently trades at ¥3.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.73, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Anhui Ankai Automobile Co generated revenue of 3.5B CNY at a net margin of -1.7%. Revenue grew 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 975M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.28 (bear case) to ¥7.18 (bull case); at ¥3.58, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 60%, 000868 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥7.25 ¥10.57 ¥15.74 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥6.43 ¥9.25 ¥12.79 74
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.4300 ¥0.5700 ¥0.8600 50
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥7.26 ¥10.83 ¥16.55 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥6.43 ¥9.28 ¥13.06 39
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.55 ¥9.28 ¥13.26 36
Multiples
EV/Revenue ¥6.09 ¥7.80 ¥9.51 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.4300 ¥0.5700 ¥0.8600 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥7.25 ¥10.57 ¥15.74 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥6.43 ¥9.25 ¥12.79 74

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥9.28) versus Asset-Based (¥0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.5B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.7%
Net margin -1.7%
Return on equity -6.4%
Free cash flow 412M CNY FY2025
Operating margin 0.5%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.0600
EPS growth (YoY) -57.4%
Net cash 975M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale service of complete buses and auto parts in China. The company offers various coaches, city buses, new energy buses, school buses, and secondhand buses, as well as special purpose vehicle.

Full company description

Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale service of complete buses and auto parts in China. The company offers various coaches, city buses, new energy buses, school buses, and secondhand buses, as well as special purpose vehicle. Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd was founded in 1966 and is based in Hefei, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Anhui Ankai Automobile Co reported revenue of ¥3.4B in FY2025 versus ¥1.8B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥55.2M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 36/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.4B CNY
Latest YoY
+25.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+32.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+11.1%
Revenue +17.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.8B
FY22 ¥1.5B
FY23 ¥2.1B
FY24 ¥2.7B
FY25 ¥3.4B
Net income
FY21 −¥264M
FY22 −¥240M
FY23 −¥170M
FY24 ¥8.4M
FY25 −¥55.2M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Ankai Automobile Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000868

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Below median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on assets -2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.79× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 28
FUTURE 19 · sector 33
PAST 0 · sector 19
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $179.76 $224.63 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$80.55 HK$50.85 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 425,000 KRW 616,918 KRW +45%
General Motors Company GM $77.72 $56.93 -27%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,944 MXN +54%
Ferrari N.V RACE $376.64 $228.05 -39%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.86 C$4.00 -66%
Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ C$20.44 C$35.15 +72%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,191 CZK +235%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,803 ₹8,236 -40%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Anhui Ankai Automobile Co (000868) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.73 versus a price of ¥3.58, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000868?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Ankai Automobile Co is ¥5.73 (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥3.58.
What is the quality score of 000868?
Anhui Ankai Automobile Co has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Anhui Ankai Automobile Co (000868)?
Anhui Ankai Automobile Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000868?
The net profit margin of Anhui Ankai Automobile Co is about -1.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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