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Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €44.3B

MB Mercedes-Benz Group MBG · XETRA
Price€46.77
Fair Value€106.16
Upside+127.0%
Quality52/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 3.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
7.56% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: High Range €73.08 – €114.12 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €106.46 to €106.16 (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 127% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€73.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€61.10 €37.38 Fair Value €106.16 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €37.38 – €61.10 · fair‑value band €73.08 – €114.12 · the €46.77 price screens below the €106.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) currently trades at €46.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €106.16, implying the stock looks roughly 127.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Mercedes-Benz Group generated revenue of €131B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at €87.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €73.08 (bear case) to €114.12 (bull case); at €46.77, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 127%, MBG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €95.88 €140.66 €223.44 80
Residual Income €76.60 €79.12 €78.86 76
Rev-Margin DCF €35.30 €59.57 €92.03 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €90.59 €136.22 €228.57 38
Owner Earnings €114.28 €168.14 €277.11 31
5Y Revenue Exit €35.30 €56.62 €88.99 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €118.08 €196.94 €305.09 41
5Y P/E Exit €51.94 €84.82 €126.10 38
10Y Revenue Exit €54.29 €75.97 €99.12 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €106.34 €168.49 €238.87 37
10Y P/E Exit €65.76 €94.56 €123.12 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €36.52 €59.75 €72.33 54
EPV €4.54 €10.22 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €39.71 €48.42 €57.75 70
DDM Multi-Stage €39.71 €52.98 €69.49 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €80.55 €107.40 €134.25 63
P/S Multiple €68.47 €91.29 €114.12 58
P/B Multiple €68.47 €91.29 €114.12 55
EV/EBIT €27.75 €50.64 €73.53 53
EV/EBITDA €162.68 €230.54 €298.41 54
EV/Revenue €5.37 €25.21 €45.05 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €48.71 €65.27 €97.41 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €95.88 €140.66 €223.44 80
Rev-Margin DCF €35.30 €59.57 €92.03 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €76.60 €79.12 €78.86 76
ROIC Compounder €4.54 €10.22 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €56.99 €81.41 €105.83 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€94.56) versus Earnings-Based (€4.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €131B
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.9%
Net margin 3.7%
Return on equity 5.3%
Free cash flow €12.5B FY2025
P/E ratio 9.1
More key figures
Operating margin 6.0%
EPS (TTM) €5.09
Dividend yield 7.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -14.5%
Net debt €87.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments.

Full company description

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments. The company develops, manufactures, and sells cars and vans under the Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, G-Class brands, as well as related spare parts and accessories. It also provides financing, leasing, vehicle subscription and rental, fleet management, insurance, and digital services related to charging electric vehicles. The company was formerly known as Daimler AG and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG in February 2022. Mercedes-Benz Group AG was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mercedes-Benz Group reported revenue of €132B in FY2025 versus €134B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €5.1B in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€132B
Latest YoY
−9.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y)
+0.0%
Revenue −0.3%/yr
FY21 €134B
FY22 €150B
FY23 €152B
FY24 €146B
FY25 €132B
Net income −31.2%/yr
FY21 €23.0B
FY22 €14.5B
FY23 €14.3B
FY24 €10.2B
FY25 €5.1B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercedes-Benz Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBG

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside +127% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth -5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.39× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.55× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 32
PAST 21 · sector 17
HEALTH 72 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 46

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $179.76 $224.63 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$80.55 HK$50.85 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 425,000 KRW 616,918 KRW +45%
General Motors Company GM $77.72 $56.93 -27%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,944 MXN +54%
Ferrari N.V RACE $376.64 $228.05 -39%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.86 C$4.00 -66%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,191 CZK +235%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,803 ₹8,236 -40%
Kia Corporation 000270 145,000 KRW 350,994 KRW +142%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €106.16 versus a price of €46.77, about +127% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MBG?
Our model-based fair value for Mercedes-Benz Group is €106.16 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €46.77.
What is the quality score of MBG?
Mercedes-Benz Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG)?
Mercedes-Benz Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €131B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MBG?
The net profit margin of Mercedes-Benz Group is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Mercedes-Benz Group pay a dividend?
Mercedes-Benz Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.64% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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