Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mercedes-Benz Group AG stock €106, price €41.56, upside +155.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 61% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value €106.12 · Strongly undervalued (61%)
Generates free cash flow
8.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
Ranks above peers(12/15)
Broad data
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 76% above the price (€73.22).
Quality 56/100
Thin margins · 4.2% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Weak Growth(revenue 5y +1.7 %/yr in EUR)
Narrow moat35/100 · thin data
Negative coverage
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Lowered 2026 profit outlook amid China slowdown🚩China slowdown prompting lower 2026 profit outlook🚩Chinese EV makers eroding China sales🚩US bill risks ban over Chinese ownership
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €37.38 – €61.10 · fair‑value band €73.22 – €142.92 · the €41.56 price screens below the €106.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments.
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The company develops, manufactures, and sells cars and vans under the Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, G-Class brands, as well as related spare parts and accessories.
It also provides financing, leasing, vehicle subscription and rental, fleet management, insurance, and digital services related to charging electric vehicles. The company was formerly known as Daimler AG and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG in February 2022.
Mercedes-Benz Group AG was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.
Stock analysis
Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) currently trades at €41.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €106.12, implying the stock looks roughly 61% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €106.12 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the €41.56 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €51.32, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €73.22 (bear) to €142.92 (bull), the price of €41.56 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Mercedes-Benz Group AG reported revenue of €132B in FY2025 versus €134B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €5.1B in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €39.8B Large · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) €5.57 · Dividend yield 8.4% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 155%, MBG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€73.22Fair Value €106.12Bull€142.92
Price €41.56 · Upside +155.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 8.7% / −4.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 3.39 per share, median 7.92 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.7% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Mercedes-Benz demonstrates resilience via ongoing share repurchases and electric model momentum in Europe and the US, yet weak profitability metrics and low returns on equity point to limited durable advantage.
Main risk: Intense competition from named Chinese rivals such as BYD, Xiaomi and NIO could take customers in the key China market and force sustained price cuts that squeeze Mercedes margins on luxury vehicles.
Bull case: Mercedes could deepen partnerships with Chinese firms like Geely to adopt cost-effective EV platforms and software while expanding premium tech features that defend brand loyalty in Europe and North America.
Bear case: If Chinese rivals continue gaining share with cheaper advanced EVs and the US bill passes without waiver, Mercedes could lose significant volume and pricing power in its two largest markets, eroding overall profitability.
Mercedes-Benz keeps repurchasing its own shares, with over seven million bought since September, even after lowering its 2026 profit outlook due to the China slowdown and higher fourth-quarter costs. Its industrial free cash flow is now expected significantly below last year while new electric models drive record sales and growth in Europe and the US. Will the ongoing capital return and product momentum outside China prove enough to support margins, or will the company need deeper changes to reduce its exposure there?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+155.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercedes-Benz Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBG
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €106.12 versus a price of €41.56, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MBG?
Our model-based fair value for Mercedes-Benz Group AG is €106.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €41.56.
What is the quality score of MBG?
Mercedes-Benz Group AG has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €106.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €73.22, optimistic scenario €142.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercedes-Benz Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €106.12, about +155% upside versus a price of €41.56 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €73.22, optimistic scenario €142.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Mercedes-Benz Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €128B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Mercedes-Benz Group AG pay a dividend?
Mercedes-Benz Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of 8.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mercedes-Benz Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by -9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MBG use?
Our models discount Mercedes-Benz Group AG at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mercedes-Benz Group AG that is -9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mercedes-Benz Group AG grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies -9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mercedes-Benz Group AG (-9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.48 %: that much free cash flow Mercedes-Benz Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercedes-Benz Group AG it is €106.12 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €41.56. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mercedes-Benz Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MBG trades below its calculated fair value: price €41.56, fair value €106.12, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€41.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€106.12). For Mercedes-Benz Group AG the two are €64.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercedes-Benz Group AG worth?
The market values Mercedes-Benz Group AG at about €39.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €41.56; our models calculate a fair value of €106.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBG?
Our models span a range for Mercedes-Benz Group AG: cautious scenario €73.22, base €106.12, optimistic €142.92 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €41.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MBG?
Mercedes-Benz Group AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €106.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 5.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MBG?
The PEG ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 0.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercedes-Benz Group AG (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBG from its 52-week high?
Mercedes-Benz Group AG trades at €41.56, about 28% below its 52-week high of €57.87 and 6% above the low of €39.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €106.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercedes-Benz Group AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercedes-Benz Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €41.56, calculated fair value €106.12 (+155%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBG calculated?
We run Mercedes-Benz Group AG through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €106.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Mercedes-Benz Group AG currently trades 61% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €41.56. Our model-based fair value is €106.12, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercedes-Benz Group AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€73.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€73.22 to €142.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) come from?
Earnings per share at Mercedes-Benz Group AG grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mercedes-Benz Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The market capitalisation of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is €39.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Earnings per share at Mercedes-Benz Group AG are €5.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The dividend yield of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 8.4% (payout 62.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The net margin of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
The operating margin of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Revenue at Mercedes-Benz Group AG is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)?
Earnings per share at Mercedes-Benz Group AG are growing +34.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) carry?
The net debt of Mercedes-Benz Group AG is €87.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026