Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €44.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €106.46 to €106.16 (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 127% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€73.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €37.38 – €61.10 · fair‑value band €73.08 – €114.12 · the €46.77 price screens below the €106.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) currently trades at €46.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €106.16, implying the stock looks roughly 127.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mercedes-Benz Group generated revenue of €131B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at €87.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €73.08 (bear case) to €114.12 (bull case); at €46.77, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 127%, MBG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€94.56) versus Earnings-Based (€4.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments.
Full company description
Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Europe, Germany, North America, the United States, Asia, China, and internationally. It operates through Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Financial Services segments. The company develops, manufactures, and sells cars and vans under the Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, G-Class brands, as well as related spare parts and accessories. It also provides financing, leasing, vehicle subscription and rental, fleet management, insurance, and digital services related to charging electric vehicles. The company was formerly known as Daimler AG and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG in February 2022. Mercedes-Benz Group AG was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mercedes-Benz Group reported revenue of €132B in FY2025 versus €134B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €5.1B in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ChargePoint and Mercedes-Benz Partner to Simplify Fleet Electrification with End-to-End Charging Solutions
- New York City Fixed Its Illegal Car-Crushing Program. It Left One Loophole Big Enough For A Mercedes-Benz.
- Mercedes-Benz lowers 2026 sales outlook amid China weakness
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $179.76 | $224.63 | +25% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 145,000 KRW | 350,994 KRW | +142% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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