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Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd ¥20.40, price ¥3.76, upside +442.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE000000XV4

XT Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd

000877 · SHE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value ¥20.40 · Strongly undervalued (+442.6%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +55.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range ¥8.72 to ¥43.28
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥16.04 ¥3.56 Fair Value ¥20.40 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.56 – ¥16.04 · fair‑value band ¥8.72 – ¥43.28 · the ¥3.76 price screens below the ¥20.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of cement, clinker, ready-mixed concrete, and aggregates in China and internationally.

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Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of cement, clinker, ready-mixed concrete, and aggregates in China and internationally. It offers ordinary cement, including silicate cement and common silicate cement; and special cements, such as sulfoaluminate cement, oil well cement, hydraulic cement, high-temperature heavy oil cement, sulfate-resistant silicate cement, ultrafine silicate cement, road silicate cement, silicate cement for nuclear power engineering, marine cement, fast-setting and fast-hardening sulfoaluminate cement, and medium-heat and low-heat silicate cement. The company also provides ordinary mortars consisting of leveling and plastering mortars, as well as tile adhesive specialty mortars; conventional commercial concrete and high-strength concrete; air entrained concrete, radiation proof concrete, permeable concrete, plain concrete, lightweight aggregate concrete, ultra-high strength and high-performance concrete, soil and low heat concrete, self-compacting concrete, marine concrete, colored concrete, cement concrete products; and wet-mix mortar, mirror-finish concrete, and underwater non-dispersible concrete. Its products are used in agriculture, water conservancy, transportation, and other fields. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Shanghai, China. The company was formerly known as Xinjiangtianshan Cement Co.,Ltd and changed its name to Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. in April 2024. Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China National Building Material Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877) currently trades at ¥3.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥20.40, implying the stock looks roughly 81.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥19.95 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥3.76 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥6.80, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥8.72 (bear) to ¥43.28 (bull), the price of ¥3.76 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.

Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd reported revenue of 74.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 170B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.6%/yr. Reported net income was −7.3B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 26.7B CNY (≈ $4.0B) · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.34 · Dividend yield 10.2% · Net margin −9.8% · Return on equity −10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin −4.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 443%, 000877 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥8.72 Fair Value ¥20.40 Bull ¥43.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥12.04 ¥29.90 ¥58.68 71
FCF DCF ¥13.32 ¥24.68 ¥60.11 70
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥8.47 ¥19.95 ¥42.43 67
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥13.32 ¥24.68 ¥60.11 70
5Y Revenue Exit ¥1.05 ¥4.94 ¥12.87 60
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥8.47 ¥19.95 ¥42.43 67
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.73 ¥13.77 ¥17.71 64
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥10.18 ¥29.40 ¥62.04 60
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥6.07 ¥10.67 ¥15.27 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.29 ¥7.09 ¥10.59 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥12.04 ¥29.90 ¥58.68 71
Rev-Margin DCF ¥1.81 ¥6.80 ¥17.45 61

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.1%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.5% (2020) → 3.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.2% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −13.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −15.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.85× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 7
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)58 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $85.04 $74.79 −12%
Holcim AG HOLN CHF 64.66 CHF 33.08 −49%
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM $484.30 $207.85 −57%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,155 ₹4,719 −58%
Vulcan Materials Company VMC $245.00 $131.66 −46%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥43.06 ¥28.26 −34%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,191 ₹1,245 −61%
Amrize AG AMRZ $38.22 $35.08 −8%
James Hardie Industries plc JHX A$36.98 A$8.06 −78%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥17.51 ¥28.02 +60%

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¥20.40 +82%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000877

Frequently asked questions

Is Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥20.40 versus a price of ¥3.76, about +443% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000877?
Our model-based fair value for Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is ¥20.40 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.76.
What is the quality score of 000877?
Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥20.40 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.72, optimistic scenario ¥43.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥20.40, about +443% upside versus a price of ¥3.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.72, optimistic scenario ¥43.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 68.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.4 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000877 use?
Our models discount Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd that is +1.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd grew -14.4 % a year. The price currently implies +1.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (+1.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.27 %: that much free cash flow Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd it is ¥20.40 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of ¥3.76. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 000877 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥3.76, fair value ¥20.40, a gap of about +443% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000877?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥20.40). For Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd the two are ¥16.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd worth?
The market values Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd at about 26.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.76; our models calculate a fair value of ¥20.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000877?
Our models span a range for Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥8.72, base ¥20.40, optimistic ¥43.28 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price ¥3.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −10.8%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000877 from its 52-week high?
Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd trades at ¥3.76, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥6.72 and 6% above the low of ¥3.56 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥20.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price ¥3.76, calculated fair value ¥20.40 (+443%), Quality Score 46/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000877 calculated?
We run Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥20.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd currently trades 82 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥3.76. Our model-based fair value is ¥20.40, about +443% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥8.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (¥8.72 to ¥43.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The market capitalisation of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is 26.7B CNY (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd are ¥−1.34. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The dividend yield of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is 10.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The net margin of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is −9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is −10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
The operating margin of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Revenue at Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is growing −15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877)?
Earnings per share at Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd are growing +103% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd (000877) carry?
The net debt of Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co Ltd is 77.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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