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CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd stock ¥1.46, price ¥3.81, that is 61.6% below the price, quality 13 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities CN · ISIN CNE0000011X1

CE CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd

000966 · SHE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 62% below what the stock costs today.

Thin margins · 0.1% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Profit last quarter 59% below a year ago.
Fair value ¥1.46 · Strongly overvalued (−61.6%)
Quality 13/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −2.6 %/yr in CNY)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 19/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥13.28 ¥3.63 Fair Value ¥1.46 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.63 – ¥13.28 · fair‑value band ¥0.2924 – ¥2.91 · the ¥3.81 price screens above the ¥1.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. produces and sells electricity and heat in China. It generates electricity through thermal, photovoltaic, hydro, wind, and biomass sources, as well as provides technical and training services.

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The company was formerly known as Guodian Changyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. in August 2021. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Wuhan, China.

CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.

Stock analysis

CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966) currently trades at ¥3.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.46, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥0.2924 (bear) to ¥2.91 (bull), the price of ¥3.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd reported revenue of 13.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 12.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was −66.2M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 13.3B CNY (≈ $2.0B) Small · P/S ratio 0.95 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.1% · Revenue (TTM) 13.8B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −4.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −62%, 000966 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.2924 Fair Value ¥1.46 Bull ¥2.91
Price ¥3.81 · Downside -61.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA ¥0.0300 ¥1.72 ¥3.42 57
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.68 ¥2.25 ¥3.35 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥0.0300 ¥1.72 ¥3.42 57
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.68 ¥2.25 ¥3.35 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 13/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 12
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 27
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 16
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 31
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 75
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 24
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.8% (2020) → 3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

000966 screens overvalued: fair value 62% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 13 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −61.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 5.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −4.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.87× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.00× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.96× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)56 · sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
PG&E Corporation PCG $12.97 $17.29 +33% vs 000966
American Electric Power Company AEP $126.53 $100.03 −21% vs 000966
Exelon Corporation EXC $45.62 $36.01 −21% vs 000966
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $79.67 $53.45 −33% vs 000966
The Southern Company SO $92.34 $56.88 −38% vs 000966
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $127.78 $75.79 −41% vs 000966
Dominion Energy, Inc D $68.60 $37.88 −45% vs 000966
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $118.56 $47.76 −60% vs 000966
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $86.95 $29.83 −66% vs 000966
Entergy Corporation ETR $110.55 $37.37 −66% vs 000966

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CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000966

Frequently asked questions

Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.46 versus a price of ¥3.81, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000966?
Our model-based fair value for CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is ¥1.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.81.
What is the quality score of 000966?
CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 13/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.2924, optimistic scenario ¥2.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.46, about 62% lower versus a price of ¥3.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.2924, optimistic scenario ¥2.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd it is ¥1.46 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥3.81. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 000966 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.81, fair value ¥1.46, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000966?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.46). For CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd the two are ¥2.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd worth?
The market values CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd at about 13.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.81; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000966?
Our models span a range for CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.2924, base ¥1.46, optimistic ¥2.91 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥3.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
Balance-sheet figures for CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 13/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000966 from its 52-week high?
CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd trades at ¥3.81, about 35% below its 52-week high of ¥5.87 and 5% above the low of ¥3.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥3.81, calculated fair value ¥1.46 (−62%), Quality Score 13/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000966 calculated?
We run CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥1.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥3.81. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.46, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥0.2924 to ¥2.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966) come from?
Earnings per share at CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd grew −14.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.0 %, EBIT margin −15.9 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
The market capitalisation of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is 13.3B CNY (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is 0.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
The net margin of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is 0.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
The operating margin of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
Revenue at CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966)?
Earnings per share at CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd are growing −59.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966) generate?
The free cash flow of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is −514M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd (000966) carry?
The net debt of CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co Ltd is 17.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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