CEZ as (CEZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what CEZ as is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 73.99 PLN – 249.40 PLN · fair‑value band 126.24 PLN – 198.72 PLN · the 240.60 PLN price screens above the 168.32 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
CEZ, a. s. engages in the generation, distribution, trade, and sale of electricity, heat, thermal energy and other commodities in Central Europe. It operates through four segments: Generation, Distribution, Sales, and Mining.
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CEZ, a. s. engages in the generation, distribution, trade, and sale of electricity, heat, thermal energy and other commodities in Central Europe. It operates through four segments: Generation, Distribution, Sales, and Mining. The company operates hydroelectric, wind, solar, nuclear, coal, photovoltaic, and biomass power plants, and combined cycle gas turbine power plant and combined heat and power units. It is also involved in the trade and sale of natural gas; mining of coal; quarrying and processing of construction aggregates and limestones; commodity trading business; and provision of energy services, as well as consulting services. In addition, the company holds interest in the lithium ore mining project in Cínovec; and deals with security systems and acoustics for buildings. Further, the company provides services in the field of electrical installations; high speed internet connection and mobile services; and engineering services and products. CEZ, a. s. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Prague, the Czech Republic.
Stock analysis
CEZ as (CEZ) currently trades at 240.60 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 168.32 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 42.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1,339 PLN per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the 240.60 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 301.41 PLN, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 126.24 PLN (bear) to 198.72 PLN (bull), the price of 240.60 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CEZ as reported revenue of 330B CZK in FY2025 versus 236B CZK in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 28.1B CZK in FY2025, compounding +30.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 129B PLN (≈ $34.0B) · P/E ratio 25.5 · P/S ratio 2.17 · EPS (TTM) 9.44 PLN · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% · Revenue (TTM) 338B PLN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −30%, CEZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 126.24 PLNFair Value 168.32 PLNBull 198.72 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.89 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 24%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)21.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.5× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)57· sector 53
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CEZ as Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEZ
Frequently asked questions
Is CEZ as (CEZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 168.32 PLN versus a price of 240.60 PLN, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEZ?
Our model-based fair value for CEZ as is 168.32 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 240.60 PLN.
What is the quality score of CEZ?
CEZ as has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CEZ as (CEZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 168.32 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 126.24 PLN, optimistic scenario 198.72 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CEZ as stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 168.32 PLN, about −30% upside versus a price of 240.60 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 126.24 PLN, optimistic scenario 198.72 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CEZ as (CEZ)?
CEZ as reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 338B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into CEZ as (CEZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CEZ as would have to grow free cash flow by -16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CEZ use?
Our models discount CEZ as at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CEZ as that is -16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CEZ as (CEZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CEZ as grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies -16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CEZ as (CEZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CEZ as (-16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CEZ as (CEZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 49.70 %: that much free cash flow CEZ as produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CEZ as (CEZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CEZ as it is 168.32 PLN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 240.60 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CEZ as stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, CEZ trades above its calculated fair value: price 240.60 PLN, fair value 168.32 PLN, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (240.60 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (168.32 PLN). For CEZ as the two are 72.28 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CEZ as worth?
The market values CEZ as at about 129B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 240.60 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 168.32 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEZ?
Our models span a range for CEZ as: cautious scenario 126.24 PLN, base 168.32 PLN, optimistic 198.72 PLN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 240.60 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CEZ?
CEZ as trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 168.32 PLN is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of CEZ as (CEZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for CEZ as (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEZ from its 52-week high?
CEZ as trades at 240.60 PLN, about 4% below its 52-week high of 230.36 PLN and 38% above the low of 174.46 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 168.32 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CEZ as?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, National Grid plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CEZ as stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 240.60 PLN, calculated fair value 168.32 PLN (−30%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEZ calculated?
We run CEZ as through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 168.32 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CEZ as itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CEZ as (CEZ)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 240.60 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 168.32 PLN, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CEZ as right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (198.72 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of CEZ as
How large is the market capitalisation of CEZ as (CEZ)?
The market capitalisation of CEZ as is 129B PLN (≈ $34.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CEZ as (CEZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CEZ as is 2.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CEZ as (CEZ)?
Earnings per share at CEZ as are 9.44 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CEZ as (CEZ)?
The net margin of CEZ as is 8.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CEZ as (CEZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CEZ as is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CEZ as (CEZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CEZ as is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at CEZ as (CEZ)?
Revenue at CEZ as is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CEZ as (CEZ)?
Earnings per share at CEZ as are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CEZ as (CEZ) carry?
The net debt of CEZ as is 231B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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