Guilin Tourism Corporation (000978) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +14.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.6300 to ¥1.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.29 – ¥10.13 · fair‑value band ¥0.6300 – ¥1.34 · the ¥6.17 price screens above the ¥1.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Guilin Tourism Corporation (000978) currently trades at ¥6.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.34, implying the stock looks roughly 78.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guilin Tourism Corporation generated revenue of 453M CNY at a net margin of 2.7%. Revenue grew 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at 547M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.6300 (bear case) to ¥1.34 (bull case); at ¥6.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -78%, 000978 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.55) versus Growth DCF (¥0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited provides tourism and related services in China. The company is involved in cruise ship passenger transport, scenic area tourism services, hotels, and road travel passenger transport, and taxi businesses. Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Guilin, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guilin Tourism Corporation reported revenue of ¥440M in FY2025 versus ¥239M in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.0M in FY2025.
000978 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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