Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A ¥1.42, price ¥7.84, upside -81.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range ¥2.67 – ¥22.33 · fair‑value band ¥1.25 – ¥1.97 · the ¥7.84 price screens above the ¥1.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the futures business in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company operates in two segments, Futures Brokerage and Asset Management, and Commodity Trading and Risk Management.
Show more
Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the futures business in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company operates in two segments, Futures Brokerage and Asset Management, and Commodity Trading and Risk Management. It offers brokerage services for commodity and financial futures; and invests in asset management plans, bank wealth management products, listed and unlisted securities, trust schemes, funds, and derivative financial instruments. The company also provides bulk commodity purchase and resale, futures arbitrage, basis trading, and hedging services. In addition, it is involved in futures investment consulting; fund sales; market making business; OTC derivatives; warehouse receipts services; cooperation hedging and commodity risk management businesses; other businesses related to risk management services; dealing in futures contracts and securities; and advising on securities. The company was formerly known as Holly Futures Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd. in May 2025. Soho Holly Futures Co., Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.
Stock analysis
Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236) currently trades at ¥7.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.42, 81.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥1.25 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥7.84 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥0.3800, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.25 (bear) to ¥1.97 (bull), the price of ¥7.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 2.8B CNY in FY2024 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2020, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was 29.8M CNY in FY2024, compounding −18.1%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 7.9B CNY (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 787.0 · P/S ratio 8.28 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −82%, 001236 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0800 to ¥49.42). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥1.25Fair Value ¥1.42Bull ¥1.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0060 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 1%
2024 sits 141% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.7% a year for the price.
Compare Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 460 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−81.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)22.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)787.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.21× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)26.06× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF3.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 84
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001236
Frequently asked questions
Is Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.42 versus a price of ¥7.84, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001236?
Our model-based fair value for Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is ¥1.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.84.
What is the quality score of 001236?
Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.25, optimistic scenario ¥1.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.42, about −82% upside versus a price of ¥7.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.25, optimistic scenario ¥1.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by -20.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 001236 use?
Our models discount Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A that is -20.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A grew +36.9 % a year. The price currently implies -20.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (-20.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 29.51 %: that much free cash flow Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A it is ¥1.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥7.84. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 001236 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥7.84, fair value ¥1.42, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 001236?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.42). For Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥6.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A at about 7.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.84; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 001236?
Our models span a range for Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥1.25, base ¥1.42, optimistic ¥1.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥7.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 001236 from its 52-week high?
Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥7.84, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥11.53 and 16% above the low of ¥6.75 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥7.84, calculated fair value ¥1.42 (−82%), Quality Score 53/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 001236 calculated?
We run Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥7.84. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.42, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The market capitalisation of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 7.9B CNY (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 787.0 (as of Jun 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 8.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
Earnings per share at Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A are ¥0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 787.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The dividend yield of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 0.1% (payout 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The net margin of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 1.1% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
The operating margin of Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
Revenue at Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A (001236)?
Earnings per share at Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A are growing +933% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
Free · no account needed
Watch Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A in the live analysis
One click puts Holly Futures Co. Ltd. A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
