Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd ¥4.03, price ¥6.96, upside -42.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.48 – ¥17.45 · fair‑value band ¥3.23 – ¥4.82 · the ¥6.96 price screens above the ¥4.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co., Ltd. constructs, operates, and maintains cable television (TV) networks in China. It offers cable TV viewing and related value-added services, and internet access services. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
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Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co., Ltd. constructs, operates, and maintains cable television (TV) networks in China. It offers cable TV viewing and related value-added services, and internet access services. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Shenzhen, China. Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Shenzhen Media Group Co. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238) currently trades at ¥6.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.03, implying the stock looks roughly 72.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥3.76 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the ¥6.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.5400, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥3.23 (bear) to ¥4.82 (bull), the price of ¥6.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −193M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.6B CNY (≈ $834M) · P/S ratio 3.75 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2500 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −15.0% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin −13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at −42%, 002238 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.23Fair Value ¥4.03Bull ¥4.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.2% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.3% (2020) → −3.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Broadcasting · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−16% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.42× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.66× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA3.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.98× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 65
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 97
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002238
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.03 versus a price of ¥6.96, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002238?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is ¥4.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.96.
What is the quality score of 002238?
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.23, optimistic scenario ¥4.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.03, about −42% upside versus a price of ¥6.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.23, optimistic scenario ¥4.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd it is ¥4.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥6.96. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002238 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.96, fair value ¥4.03, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002238?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.03). For Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd the two are ¥2.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd at about 5.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.96; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002238?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.23, base ¥4.03, optimistic ¥4.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥6.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 002238?
The PEG ratio of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is 2.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.4%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002238 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd trades at ¥6.96, about 29% below its 52-week high of ¥9.85 and 29% above the low of ¥5.38 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Nexstar Media Group, SES S.A, PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries,, MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥6.96, calculated fair value ¥4.03 (−42%), Quality Score 43/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002238 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥4.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥6.96. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.03, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238) come from?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd grew −7.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.2 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is 5.6B CNY (≈ $834M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is 3.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd are ¥−0.2500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is −15.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is −13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is growing −13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd are growing −98.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd is −7.0M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd (002238) hold?
Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 683M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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