Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd ¥0.62, price ¥3.17, upside -80.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.61 – ¥4.49 · fair‑value band ¥0.4300 – ¥0.6700 · the ¥3.17 price screens above the ¥0.6200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of metal pipe fittings, flanges, piping systems, and pressure vessels in China and internationally.
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Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sale of metal pipe fittings, flanges, piping systems, and pressure vessels in China and internationally. The company is also involved in the investment, planning, production, distribution, marketing, and development of derivative product of TV series, films, and other projects; and develops, invests in, constructs, and operates rooftop distributed photovoltaic power stations. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Jiangyin Jiangnan Pipe Industry Equipment Complete Set Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd. Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jiangyin, China.
Stock analysis
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445) currently trades at ¥3.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.6200, implying the stock looks roughly 411.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥0.6400 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥3.17 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥0.2800, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.4300 (bear) to ¥0.6700 (bull), the price of ¥3.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 482M CNY in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was 74.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −22.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 158.5 · P/S ratio 10.1 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0200 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −80%, 002445 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0200 to ¥1.01). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.4300Fair Value ¥0.6200Bull ¥0.6700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0146 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −12%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−286% → 6%
2025 sits 57% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)158.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.34× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.64× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA92.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG9.34× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002445
Frequently asked questions
Is Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.6200 versus a price of ¥3.17, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002445?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is ¥0.6200 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.17.
What is the quality score of 002445?
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.6200 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.4300, optimistic scenario ¥0.6700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.6200, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥3.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.4300, optimistic scenario ¥0.6700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd it is ¥0.6200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥3.17. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 002445 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.17, fair value ¥0.6200, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002445?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.6200). For Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd the two are ¥2.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd at about 7.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.17; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.6200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002445?
Our models span a range for Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.4300, base ¥0.6200, optimistic ¥0.6700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥3.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002445?
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 158.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.6200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 9.3, P/B 3.3, P/S 6.6, EV/EBITDA 92.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 002445?
The PEG ratio of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 9.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002445 from its 52-week high?
Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd trades at ¥3.17, about 29% below its 52-week high of ¥4.49 and 28% above the low of ¥2.47 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.6200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥3.17, calculated fair value ¥0.6200 (−80%), Quality Score 54/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002445 calculated?
We run Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.6200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥3.17. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.6200, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.6700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445) come from?
Earnings per share at Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd grew −12.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −12.9 %, EBIT margin −8.3 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The market capitalisation of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 10.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Earnings per share at Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd are ¥0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 158.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The dividend yield of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 0.0% (payout 4.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The net margin of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
The operating margin of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Revenue at Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is growing −12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445)?
Earnings per share at Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445) generate?
The free cash flow of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is −112M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd (002445) carry?
The net debt of Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co Ltd is 15.8M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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