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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd ¥8.29, price ¥16.75, upside -50.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE100000WF8

SY Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd

002497 · SHE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value ¥8.29 · Strongly overvalued (−51%)
!Quality 62/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +10.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.36% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Weak on dividend: 7 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥42.69 ¥7.99 Fair Value ¥8.29 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.99 – ¥42.69 · fair‑value band ¥7.00 – ¥11.66 · the ¥16.75 price screens above the ¥8.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in lithium and civil explosive businesses in China and internationally.

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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in lithium and civil explosive businesses in China and internationally. The company offers industrial explosives, industrial detonators, and industrial detonating cords for various fields, including water conservancy and hydropower, transportation construction, urban renovation, geological exploration, and explosive processing. It is also involved in the provision of processing, blasting design, consulting, and supervision services, as well as integrated on-site mixed explosive blasting, integrated mining, and urban demolition services; transportation services for civil explosives, hazardous chemicals, hazardous waste, radioactive materials, and general cargo; and logistics, warehousing, and automobile repair services. In addition, the company engages in lithium mining and processing; research and development, production, sales, and trading of lithium salt products, such as battery-grade lithium hydroxide, battery-grade lithium carbonate, and lithium phosphate. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Chengdu, China.

Stock analysis

Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497) currently trades at ¥16.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.29, implying the stock looks roughly 102.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥22.52 per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥16.75 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.00, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: ¥7.00 (bear) to ¥11.66 (bull), the price of ¥16.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was 632M CNY in FY2025, compounding −9.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 26.9B CNY (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 1.59 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7800 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −51%, 002497 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥7.00 Fair Value ¥8.29 Bull ¥11.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5267 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV ¥8.44 ¥9.68 ¥10.76 74
Residual Income ¥7.29 ¥7.47 ¥7.50 74
ROIC Compounder ¥8.44 ¥10.22 ¥13.08 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥11.11 ¥22.52 ¥45.22 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.73 ¥23.47 ¥32.78 61
Lynch FV ¥6.77 ¥9.67 ¥12.57 59
PEG = 1.0 ¥6.77 ¥9.67 ¥12.57 55
EPV ¥8.44 ¥9.68 ¥10.76 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.5700 ¥1.18 ¥1.88 64
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.5700 ¥1.00 ¥1.24 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥7.00 ¥9.33 ¥11.66 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.00 ¥9.33 ¥11.66 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.00 ¥9.33 ¥11.66 55
EV/EBIT ¥10.17 ¥13.22 ¥16.27 66
EV/EBITDA ¥10.35 ¥13.47 ¥16.58 67
EV/Revenue ¥8.79 ¥12.13 ¥15.46 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.65 ¥6.24 ¥9.31 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥7.29 ¥7.47 ¥7.50 74
ROIC Compounder ¥8.44 ¥10.22 ¥13.08 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥8.81 ¥12.59 ¥16.36 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 12%
2025 sits 146% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

002497 screens 102% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 458 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −51% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 84% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.50× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.73× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 16.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.93× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)7 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.87 −30%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.81 ¥21.74 +22%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$16.85 A$34.49 +105%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹590.50 ₹649.55 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%

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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥8.29 −102%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002497

Frequently asked questions

Is Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.29 versus a price of ¥16.75, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002497?
Our model-based fair value for Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is ¥8.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.75.
What is the quality score of 002497?
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.00, optimistic scenario ¥11.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.29, about −51% upside versus a price of ¥16.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.00, optimistic scenario ¥11.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd it is ¥8.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥16.75. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002497 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.75, fair value ¥8.29, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002497?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.29). For Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd the two are ¥8.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd at about 26.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002497?
Our models span a range for Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.00, base ¥8.29, optimistic ¥11.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥16.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002497?
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 2.5, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 002497?
The PEG ratio of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 1.93 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002497 from its 52-week high?
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd trades at ¥16.75, about 46% below its 52-week high of ¥31.08 and 22% above the low of ¥13.69 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥16.75, calculated fair value ¥8.29 (−51%), Quality Score 62/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002497 calculated?
We run Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥16.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.29, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497) come from?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd grew +24.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +24.2 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The market capitalisation of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 26.9B CNY (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 1.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd are ¥0.7800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The dividend yield of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 0.4% (payout 7.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The net margin of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 11.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
The operating margin of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Revenue at Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is growing +84.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497)?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd are growing +315% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497) generate?
The free cash flow of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd is −883M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd (002497) hold?
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.4B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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