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Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd ¥4.38, price ¥5.28, upside -17.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · CN · ISIN CNE100000WJ0

SS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Shanxi Securities Co Ltd

002500 · SHE

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value ¥4.38 · Overvalued (−17%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −5.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.46% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Moderate moat 60/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 11 out of 100
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥7.10 ¥4.36 Fair Value ¥4.38 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.36 – ¥7.10 · fair‑value band ¥3.29 – ¥5.48 · the ¥5.28 price screens above the ¥4.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. operates as a securities company in China. The company operates through five segments: Wealth Management, Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Investment, and Institutional Business.

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Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. operates as a securities company in China. The company operates through five segments: Wealth Management, Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Investment, and Institutional Business. The Wealth Management segment is involved in securities brokerage, investment advisory, sale of financial products developed by the company, and other financial institutions, financing. This segment also offers custody and operation outsourcing services for various private equity products, such as securities lending, equity pledge, repurchase agreements, asset allocation, and wealth planning. The Corporate Finance segment engages in the investment banking, NEEQ business, corporate services, private equity investment, and alternative investment. The Asset Management segment provides equity products and mutual funds, as well as fixed income. The Investment segment is involved in the fixed income, proprietary equity trading, and commodities, and currency trading. The Institutional Business segment engages in the research and sales trading, institutional client services, and other businesses. In addition, it is involved in margin trading, public fund management business, entrusted investment business, trade finance business, future business, derivatives business, and over-the-counter trading comprising income certificates and customer services; and provision of software and information technology services. Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Taiyuan, China.

Stock analysis

Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500) currently trades at ¥5.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.38, implying the stock looks roughly 20.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 16 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: ¥3.29 (bear) to ¥5.48 (bull), the price of ¥5.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Shanxi Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −10.8%/yr. Reported net income was 924M CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 19.0B CNY (≈ $2.8B) · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 5.66 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2600 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 27.9% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −17%, 002500 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥3.29 Fair Value ¥4.38 Bull ¥5.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0951 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple ¥3.29 ¥4.38 ¥5.48 55
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.58 ¥3.45 ¥5.16 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple ¥3.29 ¥4.38 ¥5.48 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.58 ¥3.45 ¥5.16 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 2%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 27%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

002500 screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 28% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 5.77× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)2 · sector 91
PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)49 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $200.18 $312.73 +56%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $949.49 $756.89 −20%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $100.35 $117.26 +17%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $91.88 $23.37 −75%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $124.25 $47.73 −62%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.35 A$75.58 −69%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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Shanxi Securities Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥4.38 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanxi Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002500

Frequently asked questions

Is Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.38 versus a price of ¥5.28, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002500?
Our model-based fair value for Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is ¥4.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.28.
What is the quality score of 002500?
Shanxi Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.29, optimistic scenario ¥5.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanxi Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.38, about −17% upside versus a price of ¥5.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.29, optimistic scenario ¥5.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
Shanxi Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanxi Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanxi Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanxi Securities Co Ltd it is ¥4.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥5.28. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanxi Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002500 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.28, fair value ¥4.38, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002500?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.38). For Shanxi Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanxi Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanxi Securities Co Ltd at about 19.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.28; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002500?
Our models span a range for Shanxi Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.29, base ¥4.38, optimistic ¥5.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥5.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002500?
Shanxi Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥4.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002500 from its 52-week high?
Shanxi Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥5.28, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥6.77 and 7% above the low of ¥4.92 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanxi Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanxi Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥5.28, calculated fair value ¥4.38 (−17%), Quality Score 51/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002500 calculated?
We run Shanxi Securities Co Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥4.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanxi Securities Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥5.28. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.38, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanxi Securities Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanxi Securities Co Ltd grew −5.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin −8.8 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The market capitalisation of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 19.0B CNY (≈ $2.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 5.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
Earnings per share at Shanxi Securities Co Ltd are ¥0.2600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The dividend yield of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 2.5% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The net margin of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 27.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
The operating margin of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500)?
Revenue at Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanxi Securities Co Ltd is −116M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shanxi Securities Co Ltd (002500) hold?
Shanxi Securities Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 13.9B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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