Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd ¥11.64, price ¥12.28, upside -5.2%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.06 – ¥20.34 · fair‑value band ¥8.41 – ¥14.55 · the ¥12.28 price screens above the ¥11.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of compound fertilizers. It offers compound fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate, soda ash, yellow phosphorus, and iron phosphate, as well as salt seasoning and chemical products.
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Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of compound fertilizers. It offers compound fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate, soda ash, yellow phosphorus, and iron phosphate, as well as salt seasoning and chemical products. The company was formerly known as Shindoo Chemi-Industry Co.,Ltd and changed its name to Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co., Ltd. in September 2016. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539) currently trades at ¥12.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.64, implying the stock looks roughly 5.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥12.02 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥12.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.22, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥8.41 (bear) to ¥14.55 (bull), the price of ¥12.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 21.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 14.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was 827M CNY in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 14.8B CNY (≈ $2.2B) · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7300 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −5%, 002539 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥8.41Fair Value ¥11.64Bull ¥14.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3877 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Compare Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002539
Frequently asked questions
Is Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.64 versus a price of ¥12.28, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 002539?
Our model-based fair value for Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is ¥11.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.28.
What is the quality score of 002539?
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.41, optimistic scenario ¥14.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.64, about −5% upside versus a price of ¥12.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥8.41, optimistic scenario ¥14.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.63% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd it is ¥11.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥12.28. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002539 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.28, fair value ¥11.64, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002539?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.64). For Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd the two are ¥0.6400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd at about 14.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.28; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002539?
Our models span a range for Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥8.41, base ¥11.64, optimistic ¥14.55 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥12.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002539?
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002539 from its 52-week high?
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd trades at ¥12.28, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥16.60 and 27% above the low of ¥9.66 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥12.28, calculated fair value ¥11.64 (−5%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002539 calculated?
We run Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥12.28. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.64, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539) come from?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd grew +21.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.9 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The market capitalisation of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 14.8B CNY (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd are ¥0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The dividend yield of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 1.6% (payout 27.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The net margin of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
The operating margin of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Revenue at Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is growing +6.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd are growing +19.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539) generate?
The free cash flow of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is −1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd (002539) carry?
The net debt of Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co Ltd is 7.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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