Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co ¥7.32, price ¥15.83, upside -53.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.18 – ¥24.09 · fair‑value band ¥5.49 – ¥12.97 · the ¥15.83 price screens above the ¥7.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Jiangsu Zhongsheng Gaoke Environmental Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of lubricants and greases in China. The company offers engine oil, diesel engine oil, gear oil, grease, automatic transmission fluid, and brake fluid, as well as construction machinery products.
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Jiangsu Zhongsheng Gaoke Environmental Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of lubricants and greases in China. The company offers engine oil, diesel engine oil, gear oil, grease, automatic transmission fluid, and brake fluid, as well as construction machinery products. Its products are used in the metallurgical, engineering machinery, trucks, transformer oil, metal processing, mining, and special solvent industries. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co., Ltd and changed its name to Jiangsu Zhongsheng Gaoke Environmental Co.,Ltd. in June 2021. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Yixing, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) currently trades at ¥15.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.32, implying the stock looks roughly 116.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥17.42 per share, and 2 of the 20 models we run sit above the ¥15.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.75, and 18 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥5.49 (bear) to ¥12.97 (bull), the price of ¥15.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co reported revenue of 194M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −34.1%/yr. Reported net income was 73.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −3.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.2B CNY (≈ $323M) · P/E ratio 143.9 · P/S ratio 54.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 38.0% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −54%, 002778 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.49Fair Value ¥7.32Bull ¥12.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0808 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−60.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−35.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.3% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → −3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.0% a year for the price.
Compare Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−16% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)143.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)10.95× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA44.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002778
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.32 versus a price of ¥15.83, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002778?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is ¥7.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.83.
What is the quality score of 002778?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.49, optimistic scenario ¥12.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.32, about −54% upside versus a price of ¥15.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.49, optimistic scenario ¥12.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 198M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co would have to grow free cash flow by +2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -27.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002778 use?
Our models discount Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co that is +2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co grew -27.7 % a year. The price currently implies +2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (+2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.86 %: that much free cash flow Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co it is ¥7.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥15.83. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002778 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥15.83, fair value ¥7.32, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002778?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.32). For Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co the two are ¥8.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co worth?
The market values Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co at about 2.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.83; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002778?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co: cautious scenario ¥5.49, base ¥7.32, optimistic ¥12.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥15.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002778?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 143.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.6, P/S 11.0, EV/EBITDA 44.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002778 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co trades at ¥15.83, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥24.09 and 18% above the low of ¥13.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥15.83, calculated fair value ¥7.32 (−54%), Quality Score 68/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002778 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥15.83. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.32, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥5.49 to ¥12.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 2.2B CNY (≈ $323M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 54.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co are ¥0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 143.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 0.4% (payout 63.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 38.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is −15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −35.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) carry?
The net debt of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 351M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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