Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock ¥7.32, price ¥13.44, that is 45.5% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.18 – ¥24.09 · fair‑value band ¥5.49 – ¥9.15 · the ¥13.44 price screens above the ¥7.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Jiangsu Zhongsheng Gaoke Environmental Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sales of lubricants and greases in China.
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The company offers engine oil, diesel engine oil, gear oil, grease, automatic transmission fluid, and brake fluid, as well as construction machinery products.
Its products are used in the metallurgical, engineering machinery, trucks, transformer oil, metal processing, mining, and special solvent industries.
The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co., Ltd and changed its name to Jiangsu Zhongsheng Gaoke Environmental Co.,Ltd. in June 2021. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Yixing, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) currently trades at ¥13.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.32, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥12.38 per share, and 0 of the 18 models we run sit above the ¥13.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.65, and 18 of the 18 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥5.49 (bear) to ¥9.15 (bull), the price of ¥13.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co reported revenue of 194M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −34.1%/yr. Reported net income was 73.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −3.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.7B CNY (≈ $251M) Micro · P/E ratio 103.4 · P/S ratio 9.59 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1300 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −46%, 002778 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥5.49Fair Value ¥7.32Bull¥9.15
Price ¥13.44 · Downside -45.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1115 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.3% vs 4.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → −3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price.
Compare Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.3% · Below median
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−11.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)87.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)103.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.13× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.59× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA34.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002778
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.32 versus a price of ¥13.44, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002778?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is ¥7.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.44.
What is the quality score of 002778?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.49, optimistic scenario ¥9.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.32, about 46% lower versus a price of ¥13.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.49, optimistic scenario ¥9.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 228M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co has a dividend yield of 0.5%.
What growth is priced into Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co would have to grow free cash flow by +2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -27.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002778 use?
Our models discount Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co that is +2.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co grew -27.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (+2.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.25 %: that much free cash flow Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co it is ¥7.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥13.44. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 002778 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.44, fair value ¥7.32, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002778?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.32). For Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co the two are ¥6.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co worth?
The market values Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co at about 1.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.44; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002778?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co: cautious scenario ¥5.49, base ¥7.32, optimistic ¥9.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥13.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002778?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 103.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.1, P/S 9.6, EV/EBITDA 34.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002778 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co trades at ¥13.44, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥24.09 and 2% above the low of ¥13.18 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥13.44, calculated fair value ¥7.32 (−46%), Quality Score 72/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002778 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co through 19 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥7.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥13.44. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.32, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 1.7B CNY (≈ $251M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 9.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co are ¥0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 103.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 0.5% (payout 55.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 7.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is −11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is growing +87.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co (002778) carry?
The net debt of Jiangsu Gaoke Petrochemical Co is 351M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026