First Capital Securities Co (002797) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 27.5B CNY

A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.70 – ¥10.48 · fair‑value band ¥2.55 – ¥4.25 · the ¥6.56 price screens above the ¥3.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

First Capital Securities Co (002797) currently trades at ¥6.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.40, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, First Capital Securities Co generated revenue of 3.9B CNY at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 28.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 11.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.55 (bear case) to ¥4.25 (bull case); at ¥6.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -48%, 002797 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.90) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

First Capital Securities Co., Ltd. engages in securities business in China. It offers fixed-income products, such as treasury bonds, central bank bills, policy financial bonds and short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, non-publicly oriented debt financing instruments, government bonds, corporate bonds, financial bonds, and other fixed-income …

Full company description

First Capital Securities Co., Ltd. engages in securities business in China. It offers fixed-income products, such as treasury bonds, central bank bills, policy financial bonds and short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, non-publicly oriented debt financing instruments, government bonds, corporate bonds, financial bonds, and other fixed-income products, as well as provides interest rate swaps. The company also provides investment banking, asset management, securities and futures brokerage, corporate financing, private equity fund management, credit, research, and alternative investment services, as well as other financial products. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

First Capital Securities Co reported revenue of ¥3.5B in FY2025 versus ¥3.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥841M in FY2025, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2021.

002797 screens 48% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →

Peer Group

Financial Conglomerates · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.