Guosen Securities Co (002736) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 106B CNY

A solid business, screening 77% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥13.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.81 – ¥14.90 · fair‑value band ¥13.47 – ¥22.45 · the ¥10.14 price screens below the ¥17.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Guosen Securities Co (002736) currently trades at ¥10.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.96, implying the stock looks roughly 77.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Guosen Securities Co generated revenue of 23.9B CNY at a net margin of 45.5%. Revenue declined 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 58.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥13.47 (bear case) to ¥22.45 (bull case); at ¥10.14, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at 77%, 002736 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥61.30) versus Asset-Based (¥8.60). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Investment Banking; Investment and Trading; Asset Management; and Other segments.

Full company description

Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Investment Banking; Investment and Trading; Asset Management; and Other segments. The company offers securities brokerage, futures brokerage, agency sales of financial products, asset custody, investment consulting, margin trading, and other capital intermediary services, as well as stock underwriting and sponsorship, bond underwriting, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring services. It also engages in the investment and trading of equity, fixed income, alternative investment, derivatives, and other financial products; and development of asset management products, including asset management, private equity fund management, and fund management business. Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Shenzhen Guotou Securities Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guosen Securities Co reported revenue of ¥23.7B in FY2025 versus ¥28.0B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.1B in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Financial Conglomerates · 55 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.