CNPC Capital Company (000617) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 86.7B CNY

Below-average quality, and screening another 20% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.04 – ¥12.91 · fair‑value band ¥4.34 – ¥7.23 · the ¥7.18 price screens above the ¥5.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CNPC Capital Company (000617) currently trades at ¥7.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.78, implying the stock looks roughly 19.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, CNPC Capital Company generated revenue of 32.3B CNY at a net margin of 14.2%. Revenue declined 17.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.9%. Net debt stands at 85.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.34 (bear case) to ¥7.23 (bull case); at ¥7.18, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -20%, 000617 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥15.34) versus Asset-Based (¥5.54). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

CNPC Capital Company Limited provides financial services in China and internationally. It provides savings deposits, personal loans, bank cards, investment and wealth management, and credit cards; deposit settlement, traditional financing, investment banking, supply chain financing, and corporate credit; and international settlement, international trade …

Full company description

CNPC Capital Company Limited provides financial services in China and internationally. It provides savings deposits, personal loans, bank cards, investment and wealth management, and credit cards; deposit settlement, traditional financing, investment banking, supply chain financing, and corporate credit; and international settlement, international trade finance, and foreign exchange business. The company also offers payment and collection, internal transfer settlement, bill acceptance and discounting; financial leasing, operating leasing and sale-leaseback; and asset servicing trust, asset management trust, and charitable trust. In addition, it provides property loss insurance, liability insurance, credit insurance, guarantee insurance, short-term health insurance, accident insurance, and reinsurance services, as well as life and investment-linked insurances, and group employee benefit plans. Further, the company engages in insurance brokerage, insurance loss assessment, and risk consulting; provision of risk reduction, claims investigation and inspection, loss assessment and settlement, residual value processing, marine claims settlement, and claims consulting; and corporate credit enhancement, credit product creation and trading, and asset investment. Additionally, it offers securities brokerage; securities investment consulting; financial advisory services related to securities trading and investment activities; securities underwriting and sponsorship; proprietary securities trading; securities asset management; margin trading; distribution of mutual funds and financial products; and management of publicly offered mutual funds, as well as services to futures companies. The company was formerly known as Jinan Diesel Engine Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CNPC Capital Company Limited in February 2017. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Beijing, China. CNPC Capital Company Limited is a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CNPC Capital Company reported revenue of ¥33.8B in FY2025 versus ¥31.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.3B in FY2025, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2021.

000617 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →

Peer Group

Financial Conglomerates · 55 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.